Does anyone think an equity raise will follow the Investor Autonomy Day? Seems like that was the whole point of making it for investors to me. They had to pull many cash levers in Q1 and if things don’t go their way they need to raise.
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How much better driver is an average person, when not drunk, tired, distracted or teenager? Probably at least 10x better, i.e. chances of accidents are 10x lower with average attentive driver compared to statistical average. And skilled, defensive driver that is not drunk, tired, distracted or teenager? Probably 50x to 100x better than 'average', where average includes all those negatives.
And this is how we think and judge ourselves: as attentive, non-drunk, etc, etc. drivers, that are 10x to 100x better than average statistics would imply.
If Tesla brings FSD system that is only 3x(200%) better than 'average' statistics, i.e. at least 3x worse than attentive average driver, said FSD system will be be judged and perceived to be incompetent. After all, it doesn't have excuses of tiredness, distraction etc... Some of the errors will look horrifically amateurish if it's only 3x better than statistically average driver.
I am disappointed with Musk's thinking on this subject. We need to be 100x better than statistics, in order to start claiming success. He's two orders of magnitude off.
This reminds me a bit of alien dreadnaught, where I had my doubts and concerns about cramming so much stuff so close together; but I thought he knew better; turned out he didn't. I don't have that confidence anymore, actually, I think he's being naive on this subject.
Apologies for coming out of retirement, I feel it's important for everyone's investment thesis to re-evaluate Musk's approach to FSD and his hopes for it.
Good points, but FSD is the tech that gets Tesla valued way way above where it is, not showing modest profits and solidly increasing car sales. Those are nice to have but they don't excite the valuation potential. The story is really about FSD and the eventual ride sharing network. If we see tech demonstration on 4/22 that allows people to quite easily see the reality happening from there, I would not rule out a steep climb in the SP. Technically, we also appear to be at a point where a decisive jump up will ignite quite a rally. Of course, Tesla has had some disappointing events lately. To be a catalyst for the stock, this event will clearly need to be impressive in terms of allowing for easily envisioning the reality of FSD and the Tesla Network in the not too distant future.I don't believe in 4/22 SP takeoff. They can't show something working 100%. Elon just said - next year at the latest (better than human). So, what they have now is likely 90-95%.
You can't use commercially something that is 90%. And how much time the rest of 10% takes is anybody's guess. Elon thinks 3 years, but given his past predictions it can easily be 5 years or 10.
And why would you valuate something 3x now if it only comes 10 years later?
Many here believed SP would skyrocket after Q3, then Q4. It didn't. Feels to me like 4/22 will have less substance compared to that.
Feature complete at EOY 2019 might be something more impressive to look at and then observe the improvement rate from there.
Not if they are bringing in several hundred million cash per quarter from FCA.Does anyone think an equity raise will follow the Investor Autonomy Day? Seems like that was the whole point of making it for investors to me. They had to pull many cash levers in Q1 and if things don’t go their way they need to raise.
Well, in that case :Hey, not knocking SpaceX and their incredible accomplishments one bit! Nobody else can touch them. They have demonstrated unchallenged mastery of the launch industry.
But... When it comes to projected time frames, they didn't meet their stated goals because they were ambitious goals and it was freaking hard work. Thinking that FSD is less difficult and will somehow meet an optimistic schedule this time just isn't believable any longer. I'm sure they'll get it and may do it first, like SpaceX, but it hasn't and won't be on time for the same reasons.
And again, I'd love to be wrong.
What I'd like to see is their process for disengagement data to be included in the training data. This will also tell us how fast we could expect improvements in the NN.Increasing Autopilot miles driven increases the "FSD disengagement data feedback" rate and indirectly improves FSD development speed.
Not if they are bringing in several hundred million cash per quarter from FCA.
Maybe I’m showing my age. But do people really still leave their house to go and buy stuff in stores in 2019?
It always tickles me when I read on the Model 3XS forums people saying “can I drive to Walmart and fit a new 55 inch tv in the back?”. Who does this?!
All of your posts today have given me warm fuzzies as an investor. Sometimes I think Elon is just not raising to light a fire under employees with the near death stuff.They should still raise capital and put this whole issue to bed. At this point virtually all of their top shareholders have been urging them to. Raising 2 billion would be easy for them to do and would lower their cost of capital massively by doing so (would probably get upgraded by Moody’s on the credit side and the stock would go ballistic). Look at what happened last time they raised equity. It’s pure hubris and “trying to prove a point” that they haven’t already.
Elon’s latest tweet is important. Panasonic is nowhere close to 35GWH. That is a complete lie. They have installed the machinery but it’s not close to actually achieving that sticker output (takes a long time to optimize the production throughput to its theoretical capacity). They have been the impediment to higher production levels for two quarters now, which Tesla has been reluctant to highlight given that they don’t want to throw their partner under the bus.
Material!!!Elon Musk on Twitter
Incorrect. Pana cell lines at Giga are only at ~24GWh/yr & have been a constraint on Model 3 output since July. No choice but to use other suppliers for Powerwall/Powerpack cells. Tesla won’t spend money on more capacity until existing lines get closer to 35GWh theoretical.
Woo hoo - as FC stated, SR+ will mean more M3s and more profit!
It’s a whole different ballgame when there’s no driver.
He had better deliver something mind-blowing on the 22nd or else at this point.Can't remember Elon pumping any single event more than the 22nd!
Not if they are bringing in several hundred million cash per quarter from FCA.
To be fair to Mr. Buffett, he "has input" into every company in which Berkshire invests. His actions appear to be be benign , mostly, because he chooses to invest with management he trusts. One should never confuse that with lack of involvement or influence. Factually, he seems placid but is obsessive about detail and understanding those details. That said his techniques are financial rather than technological as he regularly repeats.Buffet has no input into management of the company, just an investor. I mearly point out potential conflict of interest
Well, in that case :
Falcon Heavy was late because, when it was first designed, the Falcon 9 was crap. They had an upgrade on the table, F9 1.1, so they decided to wait until that one was flying, before going all-in on Heavy. Then, when 1.1 was flying, they made some other upgrades, and so Heavy was pushed off yet again. Etc. The Falcon 9 Full Thrust 1.2 Block 5 that's flying today is massively more powerful than the F9 1.0.
F9 1.0 had about 5,000 kN thrust at liftoff. Block 5 has 7,600 thrust at liftoff. It didn't make sense to develop Heavy when there were so many upgrades for the basic F9, and in fact the newest F9 can lift and deploy just about all of the payloads that were originally meant to go on Heavy. So it's not so much that it took 5 years to develop Heavy, but rather that it took 5 years to maximize the performance of F9. It was cancelled or almost cancelled 3 times, and only progressed because they had a contract with the Airforce for a launch on the Heavy.
To be sure, there were also development difficulties - Crossfeed was a major feature that had to be removed from the table.
It’s a whole different ballgame when there’s no driver.