Common knowledge in the press(and, seemingly, mr market) is that Tesla has already sold Model 3s to those diehard customers. If they can pull off such a thing within 2 years of even starting customer deliveries, that would suggest that isn’t true.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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Common knowledge in the press(and, seemingly, mr market) is that Tesla has already sold Model 3s to those diehard customers. If they can pull off such a thing within 2 years of even starting customer deliveries, that would suggest that isn’t true.
For a company that touts the superiority of online buying, moving to store/phone only for the 35k is a pretty blatant attempt to avoid selling it. That pretty much shouts loudly that Tesla can't sell the $35k at enough margin to make it viable.
Not terribly different from dealers where you essentially can't buy a base model car except by special order. They might get a tiny, tiny number of them, which the advertise, but usually don't exist ("already sold") if you actually go into the dealer.
As a 2012 S owner, I really want Tesla to do well, but it's disheartening, Tesla playing a variation of the traditional dealer loss-leader shell game. Necessary, I'm sure, but all these rapid pricing changes look like confusion and panic.
If I weren't so heavily underwater, doubling down back at the "420 buyout" text, I'd probably divest of TSLA until their sales strategy looked less reactionary and panicked. But, it can't get much worse for me so I might as well hope this works out.
Not terribly different from dealers where you essentially can't buy a base model car except by special order. They might get a tiny, tiny number of them, which the advertise, but usually don't exist ("already sold") if you actually go into the dealer.
As a 2012 S owner, I really want Tesla to do well, but it's disheartening, Tesla playing a variation of the traditional dealer loss-leader shell game. Necessary, I'm sure, but all these rapid pricing changes look like confusion and panic.
If I weren't so heavily underwater, doubling down back at the "420 buyout" text, I'd probably divest of TSLA until their sales strategy looked less reactionary and panicked. But, it can't get much worse for me so I might as well hope this works out.
It does make me think they should have gone with a middle-of-the-road grey interior so that people who insist on light-colored interiors and those who insist on dark-colored interiors would both have been satisfied with one interior.
I agree. I don’t like black or bright white interiors, and was really happy that a “cream” premium interior was available for my MS. I suspect there are a lot of us around that like muted colors, especially when choosing “premium”.
I see that @Fact Checking pointed out that a Tesla ride-hailing fleet 3 years from now would not necessarily require full autonomy to be viable.
If @neroden is correct, the reason any of the items on this list that require manufacturing line adjustments are not being produced is because doing so would be a detriment to the total production. It makes quite a bit of sense, why else would Tesla be leaving all those high margin RHD orders unfulfilled
Of course. Here is the math around Tesla's demand on March 31 for Model 3 cells :
Last quarter, Tesla produced 62 950 Model 3. Let's round up to 70 000. Average battery capacity is uncertain but let's be generous and go with 70kWh. That's 4 x 70 000 x 70 = 19.6 GWh on a yearly basis. In Q4 last year 225MWh. Again, let's say Tesla doubled this 3 months later. That's 1.8 GWh on a yearly basis. Total cell demand = 21.4GWh.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Everyone should listen to this podcast, it’s not that long. You can skip the first disclaimer/introduction part.
I love Elon’s statement about FSD competition: game...set...match
If he is right in this—which I believe, the analysts will have to factor this into their calculations some day sooner than later.
The Shanghai factory is up and running at the earliest 2 quarters from now. We are looking at a gap of 15GWh on a yearly rate so 7.5GWh for two quarters. Please explain me which plans Tesla has to soak up 7.5GWh.
That puts Tesla in a much better position than the aforementioned companies. The way that bad reputation hurts is through reduced purchases from ordinary consumers.
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Today seems like another bad day. Many here (including myself) have posted multiple times that if demand was an issue Tesla would pull leasing as a demand lever. Well, we are here. Further, margin compression seems to be continuing. I just spec'd a fully loaded P3D, red paint, white interior, FSD, etc. It was $71,000, today its $67,500. Yet another $3500 price drop. They have bundled AP at a 1k discount (yes its all margin), they have reduced M3 paint prices by $500, etc. To my eyes the skies look quite dark indeed.
Not to mention this doesn't make new M3 Tesla buyers feel great. Every person that has bought a M3 up to this point now feels as though they would have gotten a better deal had they held off on their purchase. My neighbor has two LR model 3s that I sold him on. I spoke with him last week and he told me how much he loved his cars, but that the price drops plus all of the bad press made him feel as though he may have made a mistake. He did talk in glowing terms about Tesla coming to his home to solve a couple of minor issues and was generally positive otherwise.
I understand this post will likely be met with comments ranging from "well what do you expect cars go down in value and technology makes things cheaper, to lowering the price helps the mission" etc etc. But the reality is we aren't producing cars at the rate necessary to give us remotely ideal margins. Demand is clearly a very real issue, and while we are facing these headwinds the company is being forced to slash Model 3 prices, offer leases and heavily discount the flagship models.
Please, someone, anyone, point me in the direction of something I can hang my hat on to stay invested in this company. Something that will resonate with a rational mind. Not TT007 style pipe dreams and speculation ala leased M3s becoming FSD taxi's someday. Maybe this will happen, but not in the near term.
Not to mention this doesn't make new M3 Tesla buyers feel great. Every person that has bought a M3 up to this point now feels as though they would have gotten a better deal had they held off on their purchase. My neighbor has two LR model 3s that I sold him on. I spoke with him last week and he told me how much he loved his cars, but that the price drops plus all of the bad press made him feel as though he may have made a mistake. He did talk in glowing terms about Tesla coming to his home to solve a couple of minor issues and was generally positive otherwise.
I understand this post will likely be met with comments ranging from "well what do you expect cars go down in value and technology makes things cheaper, to lowering the price helps the mission" etc etc. But the reality is we aren't producing cars at the rate necessary to give us remotely ideal margins. Demand is clearly a very real issue, and while we are facing these headwinds the company is being forced to slash Model 3 prices, offer leases and heavily discount the flagship models.
Please, someone, anyone, point me in the direction of something I can hang my hat on to stay invested in this company. Something that will resonate with a rational mind. Not TT007 style pipe dreams and speculation ala leased M3s becoming FSD taxi's someday. Maybe this will happen, but not in the near term.
This is definitely weighing them down. I'm not sure if simply honoring reservation holders' orders would completely devoid the company of any legal liability. Tesla executed multiple capital raises on the promise of the mass-market $35,000 vehicle. Not sure whether or not that would come back to bite them but I think the PR and media fallout from cancelling said vehicle would be more of an issue.
A really wild guess is that it knocks 10% off the value of the stock, permanently. So if you thought it was worth $400, it's worth $360.
Bluntly, backlog of Powerwall and Powerpack orders can use that. I don't know if they have the ability to build that many Powerwalls and Powerpacks, but they certainly have enough orders. Obviously other possibilities include the long-rumored move of S & X to 2170s, Semis, etc., but Powerpacks are the obvious one.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
While I am not well versed in this area (I've never leased). I've heard it said that a Tesla lease is almost always more expensive than leasing a comparably priced vehicle from another manufacturer. Many manufacturers likely use discounted leasing in the same way that they offer 0% financing. They take the hit on their margins and in exchange move more inventory.
The SEC made Tesla disclose it's purchase obligations towards it main suppliers and specifically Panasonic. For 2019 it's over $3B. Do the math with a $75/kWh price and you get >40GWh.
You're used to getting lease rates which are massively subsidized by the manufacturer. Tesla does not engage in such money-losing shenanigans. They only offer *genuine* leases, which end up having the same effective interest costs as a loan.
By the way, all the manufacturers offering the subsidized leases are in extremely precarious financial positions because of them.
Also, why the **** is cream available in standard models but not performance??! On what planet does it make sense to give fewer options to your most premium buyers.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I kind of agree, but on the other hand Tesla is currently operating in an unbelievably toxic communications and media environment where the CEO of the company gets ambushed by once respectable major news outlets like the NYT and CBS 60 Minutes.
"Not responding" might be the best PR option when any response will be spun against you.
Also, with even the smallest mistakes being ruthlessly amplified against you isn't it reasonable to communicate sparsely?
The light at the end of the tunnel is that the negativity is mostly artificial, and that such kind of situations rarely last.
Well, the AWD - until now the cheapest Model 3 in Europe - with the typically taken EAP got cheaper, I believe by over 2k €.
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