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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Would the plaintiffs not expose themselves to a potentially very damaging counter-lawsuit from Tesla, once their lawsuit is dismissed as opportunistic and baseless ? (If so, it seems a very bad idea to me for them to file the suit).

Very unlikely. The system promotes resolution of conflicts through the judicial process rather than resorting to self-help. Any counter-claim would sound in tort so unlikely that even attorney fees for prevailing against the plaintiff(s) would be awarded.
 
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What's confusing about it?

* Funding is secure: if the Saudis want to buy Tesla, and if they have the money (they sure the heck do), then of course funding is secure.
* Investor support is confirmed: again, according to this, they've been trying to for years to buy Tesla. If that's not support, what is?
* The only reason it's not certain is that shareholders have to vote on it: Duh. No deal will be certain until approved

It sounds like you're trying to make an argument that Musk's tweet about "Deal ready to present to shareholders" was a lie. And indeed, except for one problem: Musk never tweeted that there was a deal ready to present to shareholders, or anything even similar.

How can investor support be confirmed if according to the blog post today he hadn't talked to any major investors prior to his tweet on Tuesday, I doubt he was able to get on the phone with all major investor in the 30 minutes between tweets.

A deal is not certain, you did not read his blog post: "subject to financial and other due diligence and their internal review process for obtaining approvals" how can you interpret that in any way except that a deal is NOT 100% certain?

You accuse me of trying to frame him as a liar? I am not, I am simply pointing out some inconsistency with what he tweeted last week and the facts that have been leaking out since then. Clearly the market is agreeing with me, not you.
 
I agree but at the same time, the best way to stop the Saudis from acting against the energy transition would be to have them onboard. The more people have stakes in Tesla, the less opposition the company have.

What's critical is to be sure they are investing in good faith.

Well, Saudi Arabia has put out call for tenders for the construction of multi-100 MW pv-installations, and have thus driven down the price for large pv-installations. They admittedly do this to reduce their own oil consumption (spent on A/C), allowing them to export more of it. But regardless of the motivation they have thus helped drive the price on PV-generated electricity down to around 0.02$/kWh, which is objectively supporting the transition away from fossil fuel.

Record-Low Solar Bid From ACWA Power For 1st Utility-Scale Renewable Energy Project In Saudi Arabia | CleanTechnica
 
So last Tuesday the only reason the deal hasn't gone through is because it needs a shareholder vote? Yet it would be premature release full details of the plan and funding..? Now that is confusing.
How to make shareholder vote in public company without timely public announcement and multiple level negotiations? How to make financial planning of buyout without having voting results of at least all major investors?
Initial tweet was informing of all shareholders about incoming events.
All of them.

Now initial backer is acknowledged, the flood is open. It is important to notice that Tesla "invites" more participants to the party. So there is at least one more important backer, who is in arranging/counting phase yet.

Important events timeline:
meeting with Saudi fund director 31 july.
meeting with board of directors 2 august.
Tweet 7 august.
As it's easy to notice there are 7 days in between....


Important fact: it will be MBO. Or in other words it will be equity buyout.
I wonder how Musk is going to secure his leader position. As events with Canada show Saudis are crazy and don't follow financial common sense.
 
The whole idea of the Saudis, kings of oil, taking a major stake in Tesla...still can't quite wrap my head around that.

The Saudis are doing significantly more to convert their own infrastructure over to renewables than most western countries are.

This isn't unusual. Just look at Norway, another country that became rich off of oil and spearheads the way into a renewable future. Oil-producing countries generally see the writing on the wall, they know where it's headed.
 
The Saudis are doing significantly more to convert their own infrastructure over to renewables than most western countries are.

This isn't unusual. Just look at Norway, another country that became rich off of oil and spearheads the way into a renewable future. Oil-producing countries generally see the writing on the wall, they know where it's headed.

Almost everyone is doing this (among rich countries) except the US, frustratingly.
 
Unbelievable! The SP is headed down as opposed to shooting up. So what’s the negative spin on Elon’s blog lost?
No spin needed. It is the blog post itself:

"Following the August 7th announcement, I have continued to communicate with the Managing Director of the Saudi fund. He has expressed support for proceeding subject to financial and other due diligence and their internal review process for obtaining approvals. He has also asked for additional details on how the company would be taken private, including any required percentages and any regulatory requirements."

This is FAR from a done deal. Then you have this tidbit:

If and when a final proposal is presented, an appropriate evaluation process will be undertaken by a special committee of Tesla’s board, which I understand is already in the process of being set up, together with the legal counsel it has selected. If the board process results in an approved plan, any required regulatory approvals will need to be obtained and the plan will be presented to Tesla shareholders for a vote.

"IF"? This was clearly written by his legal staff. They are trying to get him off the hook for his "Funding secured" comment. But it may not work. One director's "commitment" means nothing with the Saudis. There are apparently no written commitments, no Letters of Intent. All there seems to be is Musk's "understanding".

Once the Saudi's get access to the books in their DD, you can probably kiss this deal goodbye. While Tesla has been doing a good job with distractions about production the Saudis will zero in on deliveries which is what brings in the money.
 
I think there is a mix of retail buying and institutional selling by funds who can’t or don’t want to go private. So actually, price action makes sense..... shorts are gonna try to time bottom of institutional selling and so the buys may come later....

My guess obviously ...

It would appear that funds that don't choose to keep shares of a private Tesla will automatically be paid $420 per share. So it seems to make little sense for them to sell today at a lesser price.
 
Would care speculate about how will the SEC react to: ?

He has expressed support for proceeding subject to financial and other due diligence and their internal review process for obtaining approvals. He has also asked for additional details on how the company would be taken private, including any required percentages and any regulatory requirements.

The issue is whether "funding secured" is fraudulent when the underlying details are that at the time the funding commitment consisted of what was described in the recent communication -- basically an oral statement of intent with conditions of due dili and internal approvals. In practice funding commitments range from oral expressions of intent to signed 200 page indentures or subscription agreements. Certainly the latter isn't required to not be fraudulent and business has to start with oral commitments to move to later stages of documentation. And all funding commitments are conditional -- even the 200 page credit agreements and subscription agreements. This commitment is conditional too.

I find it relevant that the communication states that discussions were had with "the Managing Director" of PIF rather than "a Managing Director" in the usual wall street sense of MD. If he had oral assurances from the top officer at PIF, apparently this guy, Terms of Service Violation I think that is a strong case of funding secured. If he only had a discussion with just one of many MDs walking the halls who will take something to an Investment committee, that is a weaker case.

Edit to add: the MD at KSA PIF happens to be an Uber and Softbank director.
 
So on the rumor that Saudis are interested, SP goes up to 365+. On the news that it’s true, it goes back down to where it was before the rumor. Shows why I should stick to tech analysis day trading and forget about the swing.
There's a precedent here - the SCTY buyout. SCTY traded at a substantial discount to the implied buyout ratio (at one point 20% below if memory serves) before the gap eventually closed as we neared the shareholder vote. I expect a similar degree of scepticism about this deal, but that the deal ultimately happens.
 
After reading the blog, lawsuits look to be frivolous.

His intention was to inform investors.

He expressed intention as a buyer.

He consulted the board before the announcement on his intentions as well as sought approval for further announcement to broader investors.

He also expressed long standing “negotiation” process with the Saudis. A more acceptable offer had been put forward to Elon(chief negotiator) at a July meeting. Elon and board is now ready to entertain this deal at the $420 price. At this point in the negotiation process the broader investor input is brought in. The details worked out. Vote put forward, then close.

Bottomline, short lawsuits going nowhere.
 
I take the news with a bit of grain of salt.

Don't know if verbal agreement means "secured" to SEC or they would expect to see something signed.

Also, some people here expressed confidence that Musk is 10 steps ahead I think were proven wrong by Musk. Discussions still ongoing with other potential investors, so only 1 was "secured".

From the Saudis side, why would they hide behind <5% to avoid filing? Any downside to buying 15-20% at below $420 price? I'm not sure why would they not be buying right now...unless they had some verbal agreement w/ Elon that they can't have more than ?20% to stay on good terms with him and expect to pick up as much during buyout.
 
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