Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Tesla 2020 Exit production rate:
  1. Model Y: 500,000 to 1,000,000
  2. Model 3: 500,000 to 700,000
  3. Model P: 100,000
  4. Model S: 50,000
  5. Model X: 50,000
  6. Roadster: 25,000
  7. Semi: Wildcard 5000 to 20,000
I think the above numbers are generally conservative and recognize demand and production side risks. I think there will continue to be a steady trickle of good news and announcements, like we've seen with the FSD and SX refresh. Pricing stability going forward and improved fundamentals. I also think the announcement that they've ordered production systems for the Y implies they may have a plan to move production up to earlier 2020 and will bring Shanghai Y online at approximately the same time. I would guess the 3 line will also produce the Y in China. That is part of the big reduction in production buildout costs.
That's going to take a LOT of battery and production capacity. They've struggled just to get to where we are now (6,000?). Just for 3 and Y, at 1,700,000 per year exit rate, that's 32,000/week. I don't see how they exit 2020 at that rate. That's just too optimistic. At the low end of 1,000,000, that's 19,000/week. That seems at least doable with China ramping up well past 3,000/week. I personally would project the 3 at 10-12,000/week and Y at perhaps 3-5,000 per week max at the end of 2020. Y could even just be starting to ramp at that point.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dc_h and izemize
It's really a shame that the stock price and company progress don't match. I feel bad for my brother-in-law who bought in at $200 years ago and it has gone back down to $247, when the company is so much more value today than back then.....

And what about those of us who bought in at $300-$350 years ago. Yeah, it does suck. But I'm sure it will be worth it in the end.
 
Did I miss a demonstration ?
What they showed (I only watched it once), was the ability of the system to recognize people, bicycles, animals, etc. correct, and the system was able to figure out whether or not the car in the next lane which was not driving all that steady was going to veer into the lane. If that can be done for a car going 45 mph (or whatever the speed was), it should be no problem to project the path of a person or bicycle. Deer are a bit harder as I've indicated in other posts. Still, even as it is, the system should be able to avoid more deer than a human driver.
 
  • Like
Reactions: neroden
Did he? He said there's merits to raising capital and i interpeted that to mean he is not beating his chest and sticking to his guns about not having to raise capital ever again.

I don’t recall the exact quote, but I distinctly remember him talking about the necessity of Tesla getting smart about how they spend money, and that he felt they got to that point.
 
A $2B equity raise at $200/share would dilute current SP by about $2.67. It would be nice if they just did that instead of watching the SP slide on its own. ;)

How do you figure? Current market cap is ~ $43b, $200 a share would be an 18.7% discount to current SP (200/246). That would value the equity at roughly $35b. Add in the $2b in cash received and the value should theoretically be somewhere around $37b. Seems like it would come out to more than $2.67 per share dilution. Rough math, am I missing something here?
 
Regarding Panasonic building 2170 capacity in Japan, this concerns me because it means they don't see a clear route to optimizing the already installed capacity at GF1. One issue may be finding enough quality workers in Nevada. GF expansion must have soaked up a large portion of the work force already.
They will have to do that anyway when S/X switches to 2170.