Tesla 2020 Exit production rate:
- Model Y: 500,000 to 1,000,000
- Model 3: 500,000 to 700,000
- Model P: 100,000
- Model S: 50,000
- Model X: 50,000
- Roadster: 25,000
- Semi: Wildcard 5000 to 20,000
I think the above numbers are generally conservative and recognize demand and production side risks. I think there will continue to be a steady trickle of good news and announcements, like we've seen with the FSD and SX refresh. Pricing stability going forward and improved fundamentals. I also think the announcement that they've ordered production systems for the Y implies they may have a plan to move production up to earlier 2020 and will bring Shanghai Y online at approximately the same time. I would guess the 3 line will also produce the Y in China. That is part of the big reduction in production buildout costs.