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2 years: Musk's new timeline for door-to-door full autonomy

Discussion in 'Model S' started by calisnow, Apr 28, 2017.

  1. Bet TSLA

    Bet TSLA Active Member

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    Really? Why doesn't it equal one disengagement every 1000 years? Or 1000 feet? I think you have no idea what you're talking about.
     
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  2. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    I guess neither does Elon since he used the same metric in his Ted Talk that i used (even exactly 1 in 1,000 miles), the rest of the industry uses and legislators from state-to-state uses.

    But alas, they all have no idea what they're talking about.
     
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  3. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    #103 stopcrazypp, May 1, 2017
    Last edited: May 1, 2017
    Again, context is everything rather than just paraphrasing. Note he said ~2 years (not exactly 2 years). He clarified later at the press conference that it might be a "slightly optimistic" estimate and gave a larger window of 2-3 years (which would point to end of 2018). This would be consistent with today's prediction of 2 years.
    http://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-says-a-tesla-should-drive-itself-coast-to-coa-1752108176

    Edit: same thing to you
     
  4. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    Where do you see paraphrasing at? That is Elon direct tweets. Do you even know what paraphrase is?
    The only one doing paraphrasing is that article ou posted and which i see no where he said 3 years or 36 months.
     
  5. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Even if Tesla releases in late 2018/early 2019, they will still be ahead. I believe the earliest predicted release by others is 2020 at the earliest.

    My comment is more related to the people who took this tweet out of context (and also his promise of a year end demo) to mean FSD level 5 driving released to customers by this year:
    Elon Musk on Twitter
     
  6. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    so you truly believe that tesla will release L5 in 2018?
     
  7. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Well-Known Member

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    I won't bet against it.
     
  8. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    #108 stopcrazypp, May 1, 2017
    Last edited: May 1, 2017
    Personally, I find it unlikely even if they get all the software done that there won't be a ton of regulatory red tape to get through, so 2018 doesn't seem likely. Regulators so far seem clueless about how to regulate these vehicles, so it's all a work in progress.

    Even one simple thing can stop them, like for example the regulators requiring redundant non-visual sensors for the entire 360 degree view. Or competitors lobby to require Lidar for example, just to trip up Tesla; I would not be surprised if GM did it, given they have a history of lobbying for legislation specifically to trip up competitors (examples: lobby against Tesla direct sales, lobby to ban CHAdeMO in publicly funded chargers).

    They might be able to release in one specific jurisdiction less strict though.
     
  9. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    Timeline: The future of driverless cars, from Audi to Volvo
    Actually I would. Seeing as not even one car or tech company is claiming Level 5 at all in any timeframe.
    Elon is a pathological liar and keeps making failed predictions after predictions.

    According to him, Tesla are supposed to be L4 cars with disengagement better than 1 in 1,000,000 miles by December 2017.
    Obviously that far from reality and you people wont see it till the end of 2017 gets here

    “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years,"
    ""When I say level 4, I mean level 4 autonomy with the probability of an accident is less than that of person," he says."
    "Its a much easier problem than people think it is"

    Elon Musk: Tesla is 2 years away from a fully self-driving car
     
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  10. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Well-Known Member

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    Still not betting against it.
     
  11. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    What does get all the software done even mean? you mean disengagement of more than 1 in 1,000,000 miles or at-least 1 in 100,000 miles for even starters?

    Elon has claimed in the past that Teslas will be self driving L4 cars with disengagement better than 1 in 1,000,000 miles by December 2017.

    “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years,"
    ""When I say level 4, I mean level 4 autonomy with the probability of an accident is less than that of person," he says."
    "Its a much easier problem than people think it is"

    Elon Musk: Tesla is 2 years away from a fully self-driving car
     
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  12. Bet TSLA

    Bet TSLA Active Member

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    I doubt it. But I also understand that people (including me) are really bad at predicting exponential processes. I don't know how modern AI's learn. But it's not hard to believe that if you feed them a human lifetime's experience on the road every day for a year that after some threshold they start to get better really, really fast. So it might be the case that the best that FSD can do is really bad in July, but by October it's as good as human, and then a few days later it's much better than human. All that has to be in place is a good sensor suite and an effective way to learn.

    I'm pretty sure that at this point AI learning is pretty effective. It wasn't long ago that all of a sudden the best Go player in the world was no longer a human. And while Go is much more constrained than driving, I think getting good at it is likely harder. And the AI didn't just get good at the game, it got better than the best humans ever. For driving, all the AI has to do is get significantly better than the average human driver, which is a rather low bar.
     
  13. Bet TSLA

    Bet TSLA Active Member

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    I'm stumped for why it is that anybody should believe that you know more about Elon's business than he does.
     
  14. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    Lol that's not how it works. But you won't listen to me even if I explain it after the thousand times. Not after billions of so called "miles data" and yet ap1 is still a typical lane following and cruise control, not now, not at the end of 2017 or 2018.

    Don't believe me, look at the results yourself. Where is the L4 car that's better than 1 in 100,00,000 miles that Elon promised?
     
  15. Bet TSLA

    Bet TSLA Active Member

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    He didn't promise any such thing by now, so thee's nothing to wonder about. And if it's late, that doesn't prove anything other than that it's late. What is your problem?
     
  16. Bet TSLA

    Bet TSLA Active Member

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    No, I certainly won't take your word for anything. You clearly have an agenda and facts are subservient to that. But I'll happily read something reputable that you point me to. Please do so. Don't modern AI solutions improve exponentially with training?
     
  17. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years,"
    ""When I say level 4, I mean level 4 autonomy with the probability of an accident is less than that of person," he says."
    "Its a much easier problem than people think it is"

    Two years from that statement is Dec 2017
    I know this is hard for you to understand, but Elon lied to you and keeps lying to you. Come New years eve and there's no software update enabling L4 everywhere that's better than a human. Then He lied yet again.
     
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  18. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    Infact when Elon refers to L4 here "complete autonomy". He's talking about L5 as SAE hadn't introduced the 5th level and L5 was referred to as L4 a-couple years ago.

    So literally Elon said we will have L5 by the end of the year. So we wait.
     
  19. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    #119 stopcrazypp, May 1, 2017
    Last edited: May 1, 2017
    Software done meaning it meets the technical requirements of being Level 5 (can drive without any involvement of the driver or even a driver at all). Technically a level 5 car should never require (or request) disengagement. Level 4 however, may still require disengagement, although it should fail safely even if driver does not respond. The initial aim was level 4 back then, but I believe the industry has moved on to target level 5.
     
  20. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    To be fair, "I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years" is different than "I promise we will have complete autonomy in two years".

    That's what I mean my paraphrasing in the other comment. The direct quote is not a promise, just a comment on what Elon personally believes is possible. And when Elon says "approximately two years" the time frame he uses is in units of years (so that extends by at least 1 year). The article I quoted previously didn't have a direct quote from the 2016 press conference, but here it is: "in that timeframe of 24 to 36 months, it will be able to drive on virtually all roads at a safety level significantly better than human."
    Elon Musk predicts a Tesla will be able to drive itself across the country in 2018
     
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