Bet TSLA
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Really? Why doesn't it equal one disengagement every 1000 years? Or 1000 feet? I think you have no idea what you're talking about.You do realize that 99.9% equal to 1 disengagement for every 1,000 miles?
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Really? Why doesn't it equal one disengagement every 1000 years? Or 1000 feet? I think you have no idea what you're talking about.You do realize that 99.9% equal to 1 disengagement for every 1,000 miles?
Really? Why doesn't it equal one disengagement every 1000 years? Or 1000 feet? I think you have no idea what you're talking about.
Again, context is everything rather than just paraphrasing. Note he said ~2 years (not exactly 2 years). He clarified later at the press conference that it might be a "slightly optimistic" estimate and gave a larger window of 2-3 years (which would point to end of 2018). This would be consistent with today's prediction of 2 years.@stopcrazypp
Well according to Elon Musk himself from Jan 2016, Level 5 Fully Self Driving would be here by the end of 2017.
But ofcourse Elon doesn't lie or make outrageous predictions.
Elon Musk on Twitter
Good point @Bladerskb. Elon Musk in January 2016:
OK, Level 5 in a Tesla, in January 2018. Through your smartphone.
AP2 at the moment is Level 1, not even Level 2 (hands off). That's one tight ramp-up!
Again, context is everything rather than just paraphrasing. Note his said ~2 years (not exactly 2 years). He clarified later at the press conference that it might be a "slightly optimistic" estimate and gave a larger window of 2-3 years (which would point to end of 2018). This would be consistent with today's prediction of 2 years.
http://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-says-a-tesla-should-drive-itself-coast-to-coa-1752108176
Even if Tesla releases in late 2018/early 2019, they will still be ahead. I believe the earliest predicted release by others is 2020 at the earliest.This also dispel the notion from many tesla fans who claim that tesla is ahead and not only ahead but ahead by years. But we both know that's not how it works right? People will twist and contour things to fit their own warped logic.
Example below and look at those upvotes
Even if Tesla releases in late 2018/early 2019, they will still be ahead. I believe the earliest predicted release by others is 2020 at the earliest.
My comment is more related to the people who took this tweet out of context (and also his promise of a year end demo) to mean FSD level 5 driving released to customers by this year:
Elon Musk on Twitter
so you truly believe that tesla will release L5 in 2018?
Personally, I find it unlikely even if they get all the software done that there won't be a ton of regulatory red tape to get through, so 2018 doesn't seem likely. Regulators so far seem clueless about how to regulate these vehicles, so it's all a work in progress.so you truly believe that tesla will release L5 in 2018?
I won't bet against it.
Personally, I find it unlikely even if they get all the software done that there won't be a ton of regulatory red tape to get through, so 2018 doesn't seem likely.
Even one simple thing can stop them, like for example the regulators requiring redundant non-visual sensors for the entire 360 degree view. Or competitors lobby to require Lidar for example, just to trip up Tesla; I would not be surprised if GM did it, given they have a history of lobbying for legislation specifically to trip up competitors (examples: lobby against Tesla direct sales, lobby to ban CHAdeMO in publicly funded chargers).
They might be able to release in one specific jurisdiction less strict though.
I doubt it. But I also understand that people (including me) are really bad at predicting exponential processes. I don't know how modern AI's learn. But it's not hard to believe that if you feed them a human lifetime's experience on the road every day for a year that after some threshold they start to get better really, really fast. So it might be the case that the best that FSD can do is really bad in July, but by October it's as good as human, and then a few days later it's much better than human. All that has to be in place is a good sensor suite and an effective way to learn.so you truly believe that tesla will release L5 in 2018?
I'm stumped for why it is that anybody should believe that you know more about Elon's business than he does.Obviously that far from reality....
I doubt it. But I also understand that people (including me) are really bad at predicting exponential processes. I don't know how modern AI's learn. But it's not hard to believe that if you feed them a human lifetime's experience on the road every day for a year that after some threshold they start to get better really, really fast. So it might be the case that the best that FSD can do is really bad in July, but by October it's as good as human, and then a few days later it's much better than human. All that has to be in place is a good sensor suite and an effective way to learn.
I'm pretty sure that at this point AI learning is pretty effective. It wasn't long ago that all of a sudden the best Go player in the world was no longer a human. And while Go is much more constrained than driving, I think getting good at it is likely harder. And the AI didn't just get good at the game, it got better than the best humans ever. For driving, all the AI has to do is get significantly better than the average human driver, which is a rather low bar.
I'm stumped for why it is that anybody should believe that you know more about Elon's business than he does.
He didn't promise any such thing by now, so thee's nothing to wonder about. And if it's late, that doesn't prove anything other than that it's late. What is your problem?Where is the L4 car that's better than 1 in 100,00,000 miles that Elon promised?
No, I certainly won't take your word for anything. You clearly have an agenda and facts are subservient to that. But I'll happily read something reputable that you point me to. Please do so. Don't modern AI solutions improve exponentially with training?Lol that's not how it works. But you won't listen to me even if I explain it after the thousand times.
He didn't promise any such thing by now, so thee's nothing to wonder about. And if it's late, that doesn't prove anything other than that it's late. What is your problem?
Software done meaning it meets the technical requirements of being Level 5 (can drive without any involvement of the driver or even a driver at all). Technically a level 5 car should never require (or request) disengagement. Level 4 however, may still require disengagement, although it should fail safely even if driver does not respond. The initial aim was level 4 back then, but I believe the industry has moved on to target level 5.What does get all the software done even mean? you mean disengagement of more than 1 in 1,000,000 miles or at-least 1 in 100,000 miles for even starters?
Elon has claimed in the past that Teslas will be self driving L4 cars with disengagement better than 1 in 1,000,000 miles by December 2017.
“We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years,"
""When I say level 4, I mean level 4 autonomy with the probability of an accident is less than that of person," he says."
"Its a much easier problem than people think it is"
Elon Musk: Tesla is 2 years away from a fully self-driving car
To be fair, "I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years" is different than "I promise we will have complete autonomy in two years".“We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years,"
""When I say level 4, I mean level 4 autonomy with the probability of an accident is less than that of person," he says."
"Its a much easier problem than people think it is"
Two years from that statement is Dec 2017
I know this is hard for you to understand, but Elon lied to you and keeps lying to you. Come New years eve and there's no software update enabling L4 everywhere that's better than a human. Then He lied yet again.