2 years: Musk's new timeline for door-to-door full autonomy

[calisnow]

Take this for what you will - he tweeted today that we are still 2 years from sleeping door to door. That's my definition of level 5 and a Tesla network of autonomous robo taxis.

So at this point the logical extrapolation from Musk's claims is:

1 - Teslas since October 2016 builds will do Level 5. This is due to his Tesla Network claim.

2 - Cameras are all that is needed.

3 - A board swap is possible if needed later.

4 - Tesla has a long software road ahead.

Interestingly he repeated the claim that an autonomous Tesla will go NYC to LA in 2017.

 

[croman]

I don't see this tweet?

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I'm not seeing it.

 

[Tam]

...NYC to LA in 2017...

Please reverse the order for the locations of start and finish :

What will the future look like? Elon Musk speaks at TED2017

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

What he didn't say is it's going to be rolled out first at 28mph, and then over time it will get faster.

At 28mph I should be able to get from my house to Portland in about 8 hours so that's perfect.

 

[f-stop]

I didn't see the abovementioned tweets, but...

[...]

Interestingly he repeated the claim that an autonomous Tesla will go NYC to LA in 2017.

Elon was a speaker at TED Talks today in Vancouver, I was able to watch a live stream of the session this morning at the public library. It was a 1/2hr interview/discussion with the TED host. They were talking about autonomous driving, among other things... he showed part of that sped-up video we've all seen already with a Model S driving itself, and the host asked something about when we'd be able to take hands off the wheel and sleep, or something along those lines - that's where Elon mentioned it being 2 yrs away, and he added that within this year a Tesla would be able to drive autonomously from a parking lot in LA to a parking lot in NYC. btw I posted a few other tidbits from the talk over in the Elon Musk thread.

[edit]
p.s. in talking about being able to drive autonomously from LA to NYC, Elon emphasized that by that he didn't mean it would only be on a pre-planned or canned route - he claimed the route could be dynamically changed, for example depart from LA towards NY, and then enroute change the destination to Toronto. And btw, although he didn't say so explicitly, I took this all to mean Tesla would be able to demonstrate the ability to do this within 2017, not that the capability would be available to customers in this time (I think that's where the "2 years" comes in). But he seemed quite confident on 2017.

 

[calisnow]

Oy. I should've linked to the source. I swear I saw an article with these tweets. "two years" was, I thought I read, a tweeted reply by Musk to a tweeted question.

 

[alapd]

Oy. I should've linked to the source. I swear I saw an article with these tweets. "two years" was, I thought I read, a tweeted reply by Musk to a tweeted question.

So let's extrapolate this out....

1) you thought wrong

 

[Tam]

...an article...

You mean this 2014 article below that estimated about going to sleep and wake up at a destination in 2019?

ELON MUSK: In 5 Years You’ll Be Able To Get In Your Car, Go To Sleep, And Wake Up At Your Destination

 

[calisnow]

You mean this 2014 article below that estimated about going to sleep and wake up at a destination in 2019?

ELON MUSK: In 5 Years You’ll Be Able To Get In Your Car, Go To Sleep, And Wake Up At Your Destination

Nope - it was today.

So let's extrapolate this out....

1) you thought wrong

Why the hostility? Did I insult you in the past or something?

 

[f-stop]

@calisnow here you go... maybe you saw someone like this guy who was live tweeting things going on at TED, he quoted the discussion I mentioned above (you weren't imagining things, just wasn't Elon who tweeted it)

Twitter

 

[calisnow]

@calisnow here you go... maybe you saw someone like this guy who was live tweeting things going on at TED, he quoted the discussion I mentioned above (you weren't imagining things, just wasn't Elon who tweeted it)

Twitter

Ahhh maybe that was it. Thanks.

 

[whitex]

Door to door? I can totally see it. Just like my AP1 car meets me at the curb, as long as the curb is directly in front of the garage door parallel to the driveway (many Tesla fansboys argue that satisfies the "meet you at the curb on private property" ), I can see AP2 driving doot-to-door, as long as the 2 doors are along the same street, no intersections, and less than 60s away so that the hold-the-wheel nag doesn't disable the car. I can totally see that, *yawn*.

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

Musk says in 2 years you could sleep door to door, and the car will drive you.
I hear that as 6 years from now.

.. which is still pretty impressive .. and if it happens, i.e. I can actually close my eyes and the car takes me from door to door, I'll buy my second Tesla.

 

[oktane]

Sometimes people are so engrossed in a fantasy that they begin to actually believe their own bullshit. Too bad no one asked Elon when AP2 will drive like a sober person.

 

[stopcrazypp]

For one, this should dispel the notion by some that somehow Tesla had promised FSD level 5 driving would be released this year.

The LA to NYC demo will happen this year, but that's just a demo, not release to customers.

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

Well, let me tell you about Autopilot. Everyone keeps asking me about FSD. People love my autopilot. I make the best autopilot. And we will have LA to NY FSD by end of this year. It will be great, the best drive ever, and FORD will pay for it. Tesla owners keep saying to me “We need autopilot!” and I say I hear you! I am the best autopilot maker ever and we WILL have autopilot! And you will love this pilot, bigly!. People want autopilot and everybody knows what's happening and believe me, we have the best autopilot ever!

 

[boaterva]

Change that to 'big league', and it's gold, Jerry, gold!

 

[alevek]

.....

The LA to NYC demo will happen this year, but that's just a demo, not release to customers.

I can't believe anybody actually would believe this.....

 

[Matias]

Is there online video about this TED interview?