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2014 1 QTR predictions/results
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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Benz
Active Member
Officially, there is only one figure for the total guidance of 6,400 Tesla Model S deliveries in Q1 2014.
Benz
Active Member
On the Tesla Motors forum, someone called "will2372002" has posted:
"VIN# 40381, scheduled for June delivery"
Doesn't that mean that there will be dilivered about 15,000 Tesla Model Ses in the first halve of 2014?
Doesn't that give us some indication?
"VIN# 40381, scheduled for June delivery"
Doesn't that mean that there will be dilivered about 15,000 Tesla Model Ses in the first halve of 2014?
Doesn't that give us some indication?
Clprenz
Member
Statistically we are looking at a 15.75% surprise. Based on an average of surprises in production and sales. Production (19.75%) Deliveries (11.75%)
2013 Q1 produced 5000, guided 4500, sold 4900
2013 Q2 produced 5525, guided 4500, sold 5150
2013 Q3 produced 6825, guided 5000, sold 5500
2013 Q4 produced 6587, guided 6000, sold 6892
Numbers via. Hummingbird's post.
If you look at production surprises: Production in Q1 should be: 8860 cars
If you look at delivery surprises: Deliveries in Q1 should be: 7152 cars
Either way this is meaningless, as are the Europe numbers. (In my opinion). I still would just like to see between a 5%-10% surprise or about 6800-6900 cars.
2013 Q1 produced 5000, guided 4500, sold 4900
2013 Q2 produced 5525, guided 4500, sold 5150
2013 Q3 produced 6825, guided 5000, sold 5500
2013 Q4 produced 6587, guided 6000, sold 6892
Numbers via. Hummingbird's post.
If you look at production surprises: Production in Q1 should be: 8860 cars
If you look at delivery surprises: Deliveries in Q1 should be: 7152 cars
Either way this is meaningless, as are the Europe numbers. (In my opinion). I still would just like to see between a 5%-10% surprise or about 6800-6900 cars.
Haven't we learned at this point to not pay attention to the VIN? Sorry, but this should really stop. This was caused tangible harm in the response to the Q3 2013 earnings report.
Q4 numbers were based on a backlog of several years of reservations. So comparing Q4 to Q1 (even though that also contained some old reservations) doesn't make sense.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I agree completely, however the downward momentum is so strong right now that I don't think widespread rumors of 10k cars being delivered would have any effect.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Good luck explaining this to "Wall Street's Finest" and the talking heads on the financial channels and blogs.
If US sales are sequentially down there will be a blood bath (i.e. a buying opportunity)
For the release date May 6th would be a good guess. I would expect an official announcement this week or next.
Are Tesla Analysts Asleep at the Wheel Again? (TSLA)
Anyyone read this article? Making a case for a miss of the analysts estimates....
Anyyone read this article? Making a case for a miss of the analysts estimates....
Benz
Active Member
Benz
Active Member
April 18, 2014
PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 04/18/14 -- Tesla announced today that it will post its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2014, after market close on Wednesday, May 7, 2014. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release via Marketwired containing a link to the first quarter 2014 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.
What: Tesla Motors, Inc. First Quarter 2014 Financial Results Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
Tesla Motors Announces Date for First Quarter 2014 Financial Results
PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 04/18/14 -- Tesla announced today that it will post its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2014, after market close on Wednesday, May 7, 2014. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release via Marketwired containing a link to the first quarter 2014 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.
What: Tesla Motors, Inc. First Quarter 2014 Financial Results Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
It's not just the number of cars. Other discussions will rule
1. Guidance. Increased batteries if Panasonic came through. Large ramp up expected, if not then drop
2. China demand. Expect some numbers
3. Progress on gf, location, partner?
4. Update on model x, question production model, options, pricing
5. Prototype gen3, doubt but possible
Agreed. As long as they make their projected number of deliveries it will be all about guidance. From some good investigative work by our European friends it appears they will, as a minimum, make their delivery number. Certainly, a 5-10% 'beat' on that number wouldn't hurt either!
bsd
Member
This is what worries me...Has TM made any progress in the GF since they announced it? If all they report is that they are still working on it...I expect sell off. I don't know if 1 quarter was enough time for Tesla to pick a location and work out details with a partner, which would be the first two things they should have at least have gotten done.
