2014 is coming to an end (but there are still 52 days left), and so far it has been a great year for Tesla Motors, actually. But which Tesla Motors related thoughts and expectations do we have for 2015? Would you like to share your thoughts and expectations?
There are lots of separate/different topics which can discussed here in this thread (as long as it's related to Tesla Motors factory in Fremont, California, in 2015).
Personally, I think that 2015 is going to be the year of the Tesla Model X. All the preparations for making the Tesla Model X "a diamond without a flaw" and getting all the details right. All the preparations for the start of the production of the Tesla Model X (supply chain, body center, etc.).
This was mentioned in the 2014 Q3 Earnings Report Shareholder Letter:
"In contrast to Q3, actions to further increase capacity have been designed to be less disruptive, thus enabling us to increase output at a steadier and more predictable pace. For example, our Model X body center will initially be independent from our Model S body center, allowing us to start building Model X bodies without impacting Model S production."
So, the factory shutdown as in July 2014 is not going to happen in 2015, and that's very good for the continuation of the steady pace of production of the Tesla Model S cars in 2015.
This was also mentioned in the 2014 Q3 Earnings Report Shareholder Letter:
"we expect our annual production will increase by over 50% in 2014, again in 2015 and probably for several years to follow."
During the Conference Call Elon Musk confirmed that this 50% increase was purely related to the production of the Tesla Model S, meaning that the production numbers of the Tesla Model X cars will be additional to the mentioned 50% increase.
My prediction for 2015:
60.000 Tesla Model S deliveries
20.000 Tesla Model X deliveries
Some people may possibly think that that's a bit too optimistic.
Would you like to share your thoughts and/or expectations and/or predictions?
Tesla Motors Forum member holidayday has posted this message:
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2015 Tesla production: 54,000
Predictions: Model S
2015 Q1: 11,500
2015 Q2: 13,000
2015 Q3: 13,500
2015 Q4: 14,000
2015 Model S: 52,000
Predictions: Model X
2015 Q1: 0
2015 Q2: 0
2015 Q3: 500
2015 Q4: 1500
2015 Model X: 2000
If we go by the Q3 conference call, the aim is 50% more in 2015 than 2014. This would make it 33,000 x 1.5 = 49,500 for current estimate.
As Tesla simplifies its production scheme (fewer options), then batches of similar vehicles can be larger. This reduces adjustment time for different options that need to be installed. (Different roof? include rear seats? Tech Option? etc)
I'm following Tesla's lead and low-balling estimates because Tesla is experiencing expected production issues. It takes time to retool things. It takes time to train a second or third shift. It takes time to build in perfection.
2015 is basically a test year to improve production efficiencies in preparation for the Model 3 volumes.
Estimate 60,000 run rate for Model S in 2016 with growth in Model X to be about 20,000.
Future educated guesses:
2015 with 52,000 Model S, 2000 Model X.
2016 with 60,000 Model S, 20,000 Model X.
2017 with 60,000 Model S, 60,000 Model X, and 5000 Model 3.
2018 with 60,000 Model S, 60,000 Model X, and 60,000 Model 3.
2019 with 60,000 Model S, 60,000 Model X, and 150,000 Model 3.
2020 with 60,000 Model S, 60,000 Model X, and 400,000 Model 3.
2021 with 60,000 Model S, 60,000 Model X, 600,000 Model 3, and 1000 Model (?)
growth of (?) and other models in years to follow with these future Wild Ass Guesses (WAGs) (notice about 50% per year):
2022 - 1.1 million
2023 - 1.6 million
2024 - 2.4 million
2025 - 3.6 million
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