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2015 Tesla shareholders meeting -- reporting as the meeting proceeds

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Precisely, its not about farts its about resources, I thought everyone knew that, its basic science.:smile:

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Plus, rainforests are being destroyed for raising cattle.
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The large difference in the C02 equivalent is mostly methane, part of the carbon cycle and therefore irrelevant. Ditto for C02. Producing grain etc reduces CO2, but also part of the carbon cycle and so also irrelevant. The only relevant issues to AGW is the energy used and deforestation. However, it takes only ~50% more energy for a pound of beef than a pound of fruits or vegetables (see More Efficient Foods, Less Waste - Scientific American). Moreover, this energy use can all be converted to renewable sources, eliminating this issue. At first glance deforestation is bad, but is still part of the carbon cycle. Growing grains every year for livestock on the deforested land replaces (by how much I am not sure) the C02 capture lost from forestation. I don't think this has been taken into account.

Also note building a car is one of the most resource intensive things we do, so I am not sure how this can be an argument for a car company.
 
It hadn't been discussed much but I do like their Q1 comparison slide and hope they continue to show those stars this year. They didn't talk about them last year since they didn't outsell the MB S Class, and was from a combination of focusing overseas and the fresh release of the new S Class, but I think this really still shows where future Model S peak demand has a likely chance of falling Globally which is essentially at or above the peak MB S Class sales.

I know I had talked about that previously and I'm sure others have too. And then extrapolating that NA itself is still not selling in all markets and I think there is room to go considerably above the S Class sales. So S Class is projected around what? 65-70k a year? And then consider that signs point to the X doing better than the S and you can easily see demand for the two sitting around 150k globally without even batting an eye.

Seeing this chart reaffirms what I (and others) have been saying about peak demand levels, and if Tesla can ramp fast enough I wouldn't be surprised to see production capacity expanded by the end of 2016 to sustain 150k a year rate.

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Say what you want about dates, but I will be amazed if anything but maybe 100 initial cars ship before late Nov, and no volume numbers until late Dec. Expect design studio to be late July, probably slip to late Aug. As usual I'd be very happy to be wrong, but we are dealing with Tesla here... Regardless I don't expect them to reach production parity (if you count what we have now with MS build lead time as parity) until 2017.

And it is perfectly fine to have your own internal expectations for timing and even voicing that as your opinion. It isn't an unreasonable viewpoint considering Tesla's history/track record.

What I was trying to get people away from was that ELON or TESLA has said anything about another slip. Your opinion (and well anyone's opinion) holds a very different weighting vs what the Company actually says. Even the analyst's opinions are weighted differently from what comes as official word from the company.

Why I make the distinction is because the difference between opinion and spreading FUD is very stark. What I was reading was bothering me because it wasn't just opinion it was twisting words from Elon to frame a specific view as if coming from the man himself when it in no way was expressed that way which is why I felt obligated to correct that.
 
Had a great time at the meeting yesterday, but I'll reiterate what others stated: bad questions.

I'm all for pleather/vegan interiors, mainly because it may even reduce the costs of seats for those less inclined to pay up for premium leather interiors - but yeah, we didn't really need three lectures on vegan interiors. One sufficed. Maybe they'll change their minds in the future.
Asking about SpaceX IPO? Read up on it. It's not going public anytime soon.
Autopilot autopilot autonomous driving, etc. - it's coming eventually, it'll be safe (we hope), cool your jets.

Seriously, you get to ask Elon Musk a question and people waste it on self-indulgent things like all this? *sigh* Oh well. Will have to come up with a solid question for next year's and ask it myself! Definitely looking to make this a yearly trip :)
 
Because I hadn't seen anyone refute it... The statements that Elon's 3-4 month comment means there has been another delay is factually wrong at face value and you are reading too much into it. Even just taking simple math, 1 month would be July 9th (technically one day prior or you have stated into the second month but whatever...), 2 months would be August 9th, three months would be Sept9th and 4 months would be Oct 9th. If your target date was Sept 30th (not saying it is, but let's go with it) then it isn't accurate to say 3 months or 4 months... Technically it is closer to 3.5months... But did you really want Elon to say in 3.5 months we will release the model x? I don't, because they don't have a fixed date yet... And people would have tried counting EXACTLY 3.5 months and suggesting it would release on like Sept 20th or something... So to give yourself a window that encompasses most all of Sept saying 3-4 months is the best way. Yes, it includes 9 days into Q4, but the slide behind him and it was said elsewhere in the meeting having stated "end of Q3" I think you can put two and two together to target a release date between Sept 9 and Sept 30. This doesn't indicate further delay and just continues with their guidance they had previously given. Please stop twisting words on this as thus is the same thing people tried to do with the comment a month back regarding 50k deliveries which was explicitly talking Model S and didn't include the whole picture.

I see your point but I don't think the 4 months statement was an accident or a convenient or lazy way of stating something that was stated more definitively before. A statement in that arena is carefully planned. Add to that their track record in meeting dates. But I'll be glad to be proven wrong. In any case it's a trifling amount of time given how many years late they already are. :tongue:
 
I see your point but I don't think the 4 months statement was an accident or a convenient or lazy way of stating something that was stated more definitively before. A statement in that arena is carefully planned. Add to that their track record in meeting dates. But I'll be glad to be proven wrong. In any case it's a trifling amount of time given how many years late they already are. :tongue:

If his words were as carefully planned as you say, then the slides would have matched.
model x slide shareholder mtg 2015.jpg
 
Was anyone else taken aback by Elon's revelation that Tesla have been sending "reminders" to owners whose local-supercharging habits they consider to be "uncool"?

It's certainly rude for people to be hogging local SCs just to avoid the cost of charging at home. But, I can't see how Tesla can possibly make such reminders politely.

Imagine getting one of these. Regardless of wording it boils down to: "We've been watching you and we don't like what you're doing"... I like Tesla but sometimes their hubris knows no bounds.

For people miserly enough to be doing this, a reminder probably isn't going to change their behavior but almost certain to piss them off. If you want to discourage local "camping" on the SCs, you really need a bit of change to the policy. Free charging beyond a certain radius from home, and a cost for local. This would free up the local chargers and still provide free road trips. Maybe they can't change it retroactively, but for future buyers. In any case, the idea of customers being chastised by their car's manufacturer for doing something they're entitled to do, just makes my skin crawl.

Check out the "Supercharging - Elon's statement that Daily Supercharging Users are Receiving Notes" and "Supercharging to reduce ownership cost of a Model S" threads for examples of how folks indeed are unlikely to change behavior...

Or don't, if you prefer not wanting to beat your head against a wall....
 
I Think there is a reason why gulf wing doors are so rare. I will not be surprised if there will be another delay if they still have not managed to figure out the problems. Not to mention, have they even tested them in snow and icy conditions.

I do know that for at least the Roadster (and I presume the Model S) they shipped test cars to Norway (or nearby) to see how they dealt with cold/ice/snow, etc.... I have to assume with the high-profile concern over the doors they will test the heck outta them...

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I resemble that quote.... I think for a lot of us dates are sort of just dates... I even forgot what year it was recently!

Elon has a lot more important things to think about!

http://quotes.vinodkmehra.com/tag/thinking-einstein/
 
Had a great time at the meeting yesterday, but I'll reiterate what others stated: bad questions.

I'm all for pleather/vegan interiors, mainly because it may even reduce the costs of seats for those less inclined to pay up for premium leather interiors - but yeah, we didn't really need three lectures on vegan interiors. One sufficed. Maybe they'll change their minds in the future.
Asking about SpaceX IPO? Read up on it. It's not going public anytime soon.
Autopilot autopilot autonomous driving, etc. - it's coming eventually, it'll be safe (we hope), cool your jets.

Seriously, you get to ask Elon Musk a question and people waste it on self-indulgent things like all this? *sigh* Oh well. Will have to come up with a solid question for next year's and ask it myself! Definitely looking to make this a yearly trip :)

+1, this exactly.
 
The large difference in the C02 equivalent is mostly ...irrelevant...Also note building a car is one of the most resource intensive things we do, so I am not sure how this can be an argument for a car company.
Thank you, Demetri. Have had my hands tied most of past 24 hrs (unsuccessfully...Grrr...) trying to Migrate all files from old MacBook Air to new iMac and it's been really tough trying to stay current only via iPhone, let alone responding in the way you just did.

Unfortunately, I'm getting the impression that there are many ways across the spectrum that people can stick to their old opinions and prejudices, and here is one prime example of same. I may carve out this discussion into a new thread, away from the "Investors" category, and see where it goes.
 
...not only is that industry not a big GHG problem - it has effectively ZERO effect.
Thanks for pointing this out. It's only recently that I realized the difference between recycling carbon and pulling it out of the ground anew. One thing that concerns me is that the use of fertilizers for plants (for feed) has some petrochemical component. It would be nice if the effect was small, but I worry that it's not.

As to the general matter of raising an issue that has no chance of instantly changing the course of the company...this is done in order to start a conversation. And so it has! Each of you who have posted has supported this goal. You've made their day.

Yeah, I wish this topic had been 10 pages, instead of 30. Too late for me, I've read it all, but maybe more useful in its own topic.
 
Other tidbits (only now recovered from meeting and trip home) / After reading thirty pages, y'all deserve a megapost :)

- I wouldn't drive 450 miles for an hour's meeting. But add in the lunch and it becomes worth it. Also add chatting in line before the meeting, chatting with neighbors at the meeting, and as a special this year, a new supercharger site and more "meetings after the meeting", all this makes it worth it.

- I got to meet ecarfan (since he advertised his location). Missed AlMc even though we were both at the lunch (there's always the chance I talked to some folks without knowing who they were). TEG said he wasn't coming the lunch but I was too dumb to realize that he might still be at the meeting. There's always next year. And then one guy who started mentioning Hawaii--yes, it was Papafox!

- We were late to lunch because JB was hanging out at the new Superchargers. Makes sense, since that's E.E. stuff, but that didn't occur to me at the time. Anyway, I had to choose between lunch and listening in; not certain I made the right choice, but of course the food was yummy.

- Locals misusing Supercharging: For Tesla to say, "We're watching you, so please think twice about how you use it" is a firm but polite approach. This is about keeping the facilities available for those who need them. It is never going to be about how much Tesla spends for electricity. Though I can tell you, if you hit 'em up for a buck every time they plugged in, they would instantly disappear. I saw this with our local Blink (Level 2 provider) stations. When they went from free to a fee, suddenly nobody needed them. They all went home and plugged in.

- SpaceX IPO: Just happened to read a memo sent by EM to all SpaceX employees (an Appendix in the new Vance book) explaining in detail all the bad things that would happen if they were suddenly accountable as a publicly traded company. I noted a parallel to a speech given by Neil deGrasse Tyson wherein he explains NASA's biggest enemy is "the quarterly report"--their funding from Congress is dependent on a continuous stream of cool stunts, and does not support the idea of a long research project that may take a long time to produce anything (if it does at all).

- Model X introduction: Please remember that EM explained (conference call) that he does not want a long rollout, with six this week and ten the next. He is holding it back until they are certain (as much as possible) that the first batch of vehicles won't be coming back for continuous warranty repairs. Instead, the goal is to verify they are good and kick production into high gear almost immediately. So, you'll see the first one later than you'd like, but you'll see good production numbers sooner than you'd expect. If I'm right (and no particular reason I should be), the design is done and they are only fixing flaws at this point, and running cars down the production line for verification. You don't go crashing cars until you're pretty confident no more changes need to happen.

- Model 3: I suspect this car will be waiting for the Gigafactory to be producing batteries in useful quantities, and so there's still time to get the car designed right without holding up the overall schedule.

- Autopilot: I liked how Elon related that each week he is evaluating the latest firmware. So really, he could answer all those questions with, "Well, I have it in my car" :)

- Questions and Answers: We aren't going to win this one if 80 percent of the audience isn't associated with TMC. Because they "don't get the memo". I'm also not certain to what extent Tesla does us a favor by taking on questions at this meeting. Are they eager to inform us, or are they just willing to tolerate us for sixty minutes a year? If they have a genuine interest in providing something extra for their most ardent supporters, then it's not unreasonable that [somebody, somewhere, somehow] could negotiate an additional "meeting" for this purpose. We could propose good questions, which would be put through an approval process (this has been suggested in various forms). Then we could submit them, and they could answer them thoughtfully, without them being put on the spot. It would be off line, and not an improv meeting. The press certainly gets to abuse the question/answer thing all year long. I think we as an organization could get a little bit of love once a year. And leave the shareholder meeting thing alone and let whatever happens there happen. Because we aren't going to be able to fix that one.