2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[dc_h]

TSLA traded between ~180 to ~280 for a long time. Once it breaks out of the all time high, it should have a powerful rally, add $100 (280-180) and hit $380. This is very basic in technical analysis. At the time the CNBC guy (Gordon?) talked about it several times, many traders predicted it too. I still remember a guy asked me why the magical number 380, but really nothing magical about it.

Once you learn about technical analysis, you will see many members are much more experienced than myusername. Take Curt Renz for example, check his posts, he rarely post something wrong.

If someone wants to trade based on charts and technical indicators, each trade should have at least 70% weighted winning chance. If a trader can only get to 60% correct, the wrong trades will cancel the winning trades and it's not worth the effort. myusername is like wrong 80% of the time, no matter it's about technical or fundamental. He might get better over time. For now I keep him on my ignore list.

TSLA traded between ~180 to ~280 for a long time. Once it breaks out of the all time high, it should have a powerful rally, add $100 (280-180) and hit $380. This is very basic in technical analysis. At the time the CNBC guy (Gordon?) talked about it several times, many traders predicted it too. I still remember a guy asked me why the magical number 380, but really nothing magical about it.

Once you learn about technical analysis, you will see many members are much more experienced than myusername. Take Curt Renz for example, check his posts, he rarely post something wrong.

If someone wants to trade based on charts and technical indicators, each trade should have at least 70% weighted winning chance. If a trader can only get to 60% correct, the wrong trades will cancel the winning trades and it's not worth the effort. myusername is like wrong 80% of the time, no matter it's about technical or fundamental. He might get better over time. For now I keep him on my ignore list.

He picked the bottom and rode it up. Speigal picked the bottom ironically and rode it to the top. No one on CNBC called buy at $180.
His rants are also much funnier than Speigal which deserves some credit as well.

 

[SteveG3]

Tesla Model 3 annual demand could surpass 700,000 units, says Elon Musk

Call me optimistic again.

Model 3 and Model Y may well end up being the top two selling cars on the planet. We've been talking in these threads about the possibility of the pair going far beyond 2 million per year since at least 2014. As time goes by more and more people will see through the fog of gibberish trying to spin Tesla as a niche automaker, and/or about to be run over by "the big boys." Lots of money will continue pumping out that fog, so, it helps to be patient about this, but, it's all but certain to become evident to even casual observers in due time that Tesla has a runway in front of it unlike anything seen in the auto industry for a hundred years.

 

[tlo]

Tim is Foxconn? Opening another multi-billion dollar plant in Michigan to focus on autonomous vehicles.

IPhone maker says it's building a multibillion-dollar facility — in another state Trump flipped

I don't think TIM is Foxconn.

From this link (Chinese media: Foxconn to build in Michigan):

As The News previously reported, potential Michigan sites for a Foxconn development include Lyon Township and Romulus.

There is a Facebook group following Project TIM here - Durand, MI Supporters Of Change And Jobs - Project TIM

One of the commenters stated:

I have been told it's an American company to build in Durand this was told to us at landowners meeting

So I believe Project TIM is highly likely to be Tesla (Tesla in Michigan)? Also, this is total speculation on my part, but I'm thinking this gigafactory will be for Tesla Semi and/or Tesla Pickup, thus highly strategic to be located in Michigan, close to suppliers and existing labor.

 

[Krugerrand]

That's the 2016 Leaf. The 2018 Leaf is captured in two blurry shots later in the article.

Leaked photos of new all-electric Leaf provide first look at Nissan’s Tesla killer | The Verge

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGauMUDVYAAjg1L?format=jpg

Oh, good gracious. That's just so uninspiring.

 

[brian45011]

are you implying that because tesla was willing to pay 6.5% to related parties, its probably willing to pay more to the bond market?

Not necessarily; circumstances change. It's less about what Tesla is willing to pay, and more about what the debt markets will bear.

My point was that debt was offered in August 2016 after the announcement that Tesla wanted to buy Solarcity, and that TSLA's credit would likely back-stop the transaction. Those were 18 month notes, and it appears the market wasn't that much interested. The ultimate purchasers of almost all of those notes were privy to inside information that was not disclosed in the prospectus, as will likely be the case when the filings for the just announced senior notes are published. I would think the debt market would expect a bit of a premium for having less information, but as I said: circumstances change.

I profess no acuity in predicting the future, but thought it was a relevant data point. Feel free to ignore it.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Short sellers getting even more desperate. Two FUD articles on Slashdot.org. I remember when CmdrTaco and Jeff built that site. (My wife and I kept running into them every time we went to the movie theater) It was so much better before they sold it.

Tesla Seeks $1.5 Billion Junk Bonds Issue To Fund Model 3 Production - Slashdot
Can Elon Musk Be Weaned Off Government Support? - Slashdot

 

[MXWing]

How can project TIM possibly be Tesla? No way a leak doesn't happen in this Information Age?

 

[Reciprocity]

Model 3 and Model Y may well end up being the top two selling cars on the planet. We've been talking in these threads about the possibility of the pair going far beyond 2 million per year since at least 2014. As time goes by more and more people will see through the fog of gibberish trying to spin Tesla as a niche automaker, and/or about to be run over by "the big boys." Lots of money will continue pumping out that fog, so, it helps to be patient about this, but, it's all but certain to become evident to even casual observers in due time that Tesla has a runway in front of it unlike anything seen in the auto industry for a hundred years.

Nissan rogue is the most popular vehicle in the US beating out Camry this year. I would have never guessed. I don't hate them, but I never thought they where anything special.

 

[Cattledog]

Leaked photos of new all-electric Leaf provide first look at Nissan’s Tesla killer | The Verge[/URL]

That's very disappointing. I guess it's a Tesla killer if Tesla dies laughing.

 

[Ameliorate]

How can project TIM possibly be Tesla? No way a leak doesn't happen in this Information Age?

It has yet to be verified to be another company! I'd say we're still very much in the running and this current financing makes a guy wonder. We know they're pretty much set for ramping out gigafactory 1, why do you think they'd need 1.5B+ ? (I like the idea of clearing up some other bad debt, but the remaining 1B could certainly get things moving on a new factory)

 

[MXWing]

It has yet to be verified to be another company! I'd say we're still very much in the running and this current financing makes a guy wonder. We know they're pretty much set for ramping out gigafactory 1, why do you think they'd need 1.5B+ ? (I like the idea of clearing up some other bad debt, but the remaining 1B could certainly get things moving on a new factory)

I hope you are right. The best way to invest 1 billion is filling a 500k backlog of cars in the US or attacking another continent by having a factory over there.

 

[SteveG3]

Nissan rogue is the most popular vehicle in the US beating out Camry this year. I would have never guessed. I don't hate them, but I never thought they where anything special.

I was looking at the link below on worldwide sales in 2016. The Model 3 breaking over 700,000 as Elon apparently considered on today's call with potential bond investors, would put it at #9 (of course, sales on the other vehicles will fluctuate from the 2016 numbers and when Tesla can get to 700K, etc). Over 1 million, would be just enough to get the M3 to number 2, ahead of the Ford F Series truck. Number 1 spot would mean passing the Toyota Corolla, which had 1.3 million registrations last year. I think we can do it for both the 3 and Y. Next stop, 5+ million between these two scenario suggested here on TMC in 2014 ; )

Revealed: the world’s best-selling cars of 2016

 

[brian45011]

Tesla being able to sell 1.5B in non-convertible debt without even going to the public is extremely positive.

So who is buying those bonds? The road show just got underway today.

 

[Ameliorate]

I hope you are right. The best way to invest 1 billion is filling a 500k backlog of cars in the US or attacking another continent by having a factory over there.

“I will announce locations for between two and four Gigafactories later this year – probably four.” -Elon @ Ted Talk Vancouver April 30 2017

 

[TradingInvest]

Buying back forty percent of the float! Do you think that spiegel will stilll be short TSLA?

I really hope Spiegel can stay short for the next 10 years. That's just my wishful thinking. Even today I think he is shorting by a big mouth. He probably doesn't have much money left. What a waste of life.

He coined the term "Spiegel Bottom", that's quite an achievement.

 

[EinSV]

I was looking at the link below on worldwide sales in 2016. The Model 3 breaking over 700,000 as Elon apparently considered on today's call with potential bond investors, would put it at #9 (of course, sales on the other vehicles will fluctuate from the 2016 numbers and when Tesla can get to 700K, etc). Over 1 million, would be just enough to get the M3 to number 2, ahead of the Ford F Series truck. Number 1 spot would mean passing the Toyota Corolla, which had 1.3 million registrations last year. I think we can do it for both the 3 and Y. Next stop, 5+ million between these two scenario suggested here on TMC in 2014 ; )

Revealed: the world’s best-selling cars of 2016

@SteveG3 -- your link did not work well for me, so I took the liberty of cross-posting the quote I think you are referring to. I like it.

What's more, though Elon did once mention Gen 4, I think it will be a bit blurry as to what Gen 3 is vs. Gen 4 given Elon's expectation that batteries will fall to $100 kWh within a decade. Batteries that cheap will make the Gen 3 car basically as cheap as a Camry, Accord, etc., over the life of the vehicle (of course, with far better performance, storage, etc than those vehilcles). At $100/kWh perhaps Gen III could grow to more like 5+ million vehicles/year rather than 2 million. Putting aside the possible blurring of Gen 3 and Gen 4, I'm not sure even Tesla is clear what Gen 4 will mean when the time to plan for it arrives (not likely to be before 2020 given that they've said a truck is up next after Gen 3). What kind of vehicle will appeal to Tesla to expand into in the early 2020s (if indeed they choose this among their options in grid storage and becoming a provider of packs for other manufacturers to put into their vehicles)? Yes, perhaps the next level down in developed markets that let's Toyota and GM sell 10 million/year, but perhaps instead a very inexpensive small city car with smaller range in response more to needs of urban populations and rapidly growing developing markets, perhaps a metal air hybrid, or perhaps by then the next Tesla platform will be a move from lithium ion to some new technology altogether.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

It has yet to be verified to be another company! I'd say we're still very much in the running and this current financing makes a guy wonder. We know they're pretty much set for ramping out gigafactory 1, why do you think they'd need 1.5B+ ? (I like the idea of clearing up some other bad debt, but the remaining 1B could certainly get things moving on a new factory)

I'm also surprised that this has remained a secret, which companies are capable of maintaining this sort of secrecy? I'd guess Apple and Tesla, not that helpful.

 

[myusername]

That's very disappointing. I guess it's a Tesla killer if Tesla dies laughing.

disclosure... this is not my short theory on tesla but rather my emotional response to the greater objective...

why are you disappointed in the new Leaf?... because the way it looks?... if Nissan produces a 250mi range electric vehicle for $35k or less... but somehow doesn't live up to your desired "looks" then it's a failure?... you'd rather the world adopt the M3 in the 5% market range of ALL vehicles sold because it's S3XY than the Nissan Leaf targeting the 20%+ range of the market?... why?... why do you heckle the range of EVs being designed today? seriously... what is your objective?

if the world's automobiles today were completely replaced today with mass market Nissan Leafs... you would NOT consider that a success?

and the answer is... you wouldn't... because you've completely lost touch with the real objective... and you want $$$s.

and now you make a joke of the Nissan Leaf... on a Tesla Investor board.

you guys need to decide one way or the other... are you in this for the betterment of humanity... or are you in this to make money?

if it you were in it for the former... then you wouldn't be cracking jokes while a completely successful auto company is attempting to produce a vehicle that would achieve the same goal you "believe" you are after.

Comparing The Tesla Model 3 Production Ramp With Nissan LEAF 2.0 - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

yes... i linked a seeking alpha article... suck it up and read:

"Unlike Tesla, Nissan makes the LEAF in three factories on three continents: Japan, Tennessee and the U.K. As such, it will be able to very quickly populate the retail channel across a large number of countries with far more cars than Tesla."

now tell me... why is this BAD for the world?... or will you just continue to tell me reasons why it's bad for your portfolio?

 

[SteveG3]

disclosure... this is not my short theory on tesla but rather my emotional response to the greater objective...

why are you disappointed in the new Leaf?... because the way it looks?... if Nissan produces a 250mi range electric vehicle for $35k or less... but somehow doesn't live up to your desired "looks" then it's a failure?... you'd rather the world adopt the M3 in the 5% market range of ALL vehicles sold because it's S3XY than the Nissan Leaf targeting the 20%+ range of the market?... why?... why do you heckle the range of EVs being designed today? seriously... what is your objective?

if the world's automobiles today were completely replaced today with mass market Nissan Leafs... you would NOT consider that a success?

and the answer is... you wouldn't... because you've completely lost touch with the real objective... and you want $$$s.

and now you make a joke of the Nissan Leaf... on a Tesla Investor board.

you guys need to decide one way or the other... are you in this for the betterment of humanity... or are you in this to make money?

if it you were in it for the former... then you wouldn't be cracking jokes while a completely successful auto company is attempting to produce a vehicle that would achieve the same goal you "believe" you are after.

Comparing The Tesla Model 3 Production Ramp With Nissan LEAF 2.0 - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

yes... i linked a seeking alpha article... suck it up and read:

"Unlike Tesla, Nissan makes the LEAF in three factories on three continents: Japan, Tennessee and the U.K. As such, it will be able to very quickly populate the retail channel across a large number of countries with far more cars than Tesla."

now tell me... why is this BAD for the world?... or will you just continue to tell me reasons why it's bad for your portfolio?

myusername, a month ago I asked you multiple times what year you think Tesla will fall below 50% of global 200+ mile EV market share, excluding China. will you participate in our discussion with a direct answer to that question?

there is a blog function on TMC, and the opportunity to create your own megathread as well, a few other members have, but, this discussion thread is not meant for a myusername blog or megathread.

 

[MXWing]

you guys need to decide one way or the other... are you in this for the betterment of humanity... or are you in this to make money?

Making money saving the planet while looking good is the triple crown. Why not strive for it?