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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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brian45011

Active Member
Apr 28, 2011
2,016
6,284
FWIW

(11:22:31 AM):
Tesla Model 3 an `Outright Challenge' to Big 3: Morgan Stanley
By Bailey Lipschultz
(Bloomberg) -- Tesla is “no longer a mere annoyance to incumbent auto players”, but an “outright challenge to the status quo,” Morgan Stanley analystAdam Jonas (equalweight, PT $305) writes in note to clients discussing Model 3.
Target for 500k units “may not be as much of a stretch” as once thought; rev. would roughly triple if reached Current Model 3 design will likely be the “most basic version you will ever see” Model 3 is a “big disruptor,” successful launch may be priced in to TSLA shares but doubts competitor prices are sufficiently discounted TSLA’s charging infrastructure offers a critical competitive advantage as its “cult following” could enter a new dimension
TSLA 8 buys, 11 holds, 6 sells; avg PT $310: Bloomberg data

(11:29:39 AM): *TESLA OUTLOOK STABLE BY MOODY'S
(11:29:45 AM): *MOODY'S ASSIGNS B2 CFR TO TESLA, B3 TO UNSECURED NOTES; OUTLOOK
(11:29:57 AM): The B2 CFR reflects Moody's expectation that the launch, production ramp up, and market acceptance of the Model 3 will be successful enough to achieve approximately 300,000 unit sales during 2018 (a full-year sales rate averaging about 5,500 per week) with a gross margin approximating 25%. This level of sales and profitability would enable Tesla to strengthen its performance from sizable losses to an operating position that supports the B2 CFR. The B2 rating is further supported by Moody's expectation than in the event of severe financial or operating stress, Tesla's brand name, production facilities, and product lineup would have considerable value to another automotive OEM or technology firm targeting the electric vehicle and mobility markets.

Who will lead the underwriting syndicate that will price the senior notes?
 
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neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
Thanks for the reminder. I was trying not be so wordy on my end. My current tower is eking out eight years and I had it built to my specifications primarily so my wife if so desired could load autocad on and not burden the machine. I have resisted ms 10, keeping ms 7. Now that we are retired, I am no longer teaching, so my dependence on ms and ms word & excel are no longer dictated to support my computer classes. This last week my father-in-law had to have an outside tech replace the power supply in his two year old desktop machine his son purchased for him two years ago:-( I used to tell my students to get a used machine, load Linux and install Open Office to cover most of their computing needs or their customers:) I will have to honor my own words and brave the change myself by putting my money where my mouth is as I actually move forward and replace my tower in the next couple of years. Shouldn't need that Russian made antivirus either:)

I just looked and unfortunately my go-to place for ordering custom-assembled workstations seems to have discontinued that service. :-( Have to look somewhere else.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
$185,4M additional paid in capital for 1,163,422 shares, so stock issued in June 2017 was at a little less than $160/share.
Hmm. Not ideal; the warrants should have made this $184.48. On the other hand, I think part of the bonds were supposed to be cash-settled and they were stock-settled. Also, I can easily imagine $25 million in costs for arranging the deal. :-( Financial firms take ridiculously high fees.
 

AlMc

'When the music is on...you gotta dance' (Go Elon)
Apr 23, 2013
7,348
15,507
Delaware
Sorry, you are the last person I would take any money advice from.

While I am not a supporter of @myusername 's positions I would point out his charting did predict the rise from an SP of about $200 to the ATH of about $380, IIRC.

Edit: He did indicate he was surprised by the rise but nonetheless he did predict it
 
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brian45011

Active Member
Apr 28, 2011
2,016
6,284
Hmm. Not ideal; the warrants should have made this $184.48. On the other hand, I think part of the bonds were supposed to be cash-settled and they were stock-settled. Also, I can easily imagine $25 million in costs for arranging the deal. :-( Financial firms take ridiculously high fees.

The Cash Flow Statement shows Tesla netted $43.7MM on the related settlement of hedges and warrants.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
Bleh. The Moody's B3 and S&P B- rating mean that -- judging by other bonds of this rating -- Tesla might be asked to pay between 8% and 10% on these bonds. I'm not sure that's viable.

However, the junk bond indexes are at record lows, 5.66%. Most of the junk bonds are oil & gas companies. It is possible that Tesla can issue in the 5% - 6% range, which I think would be acceptable and satisfactory.
 

brian45011

Active Member
Apr 28, 2011
2,016
6,284
Bleh. The Moody's B3 and S&P B- rating mean that -- judging by other bonds of this rating -- Tesla might be asked to pay between 8% and 10% on these bonds. I'm not sure that's viable.

However, the junk bond indexes are at record lows, 5.66%. Most of the junk bonds are oil & gas companies. It is possible that Tesla can issue in the 5% - 6% range, which I think would be acceptable and satisfactory.

The interest rate on $100 million of related-party promissory notes that mature in 6 month is 6.5%.
 
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ValueAnalyst

Closed
Aug 25, 2016
5,371
11,124
World
Bleh. The Moody's B3 and S&P B- rating mean that -- judging by other bonds of this rating -- Tesla might be asked to pay between 8% and 10% on these bonds. I'm not sure that's viable.

However, the junk bond indexes are at record lows, 5.66%. Most of the junk bonds are oil & gas companies. It is possible that Tesla can issue in the 5% - 6% range, which I think would be acceptable and satisfactory.

Paying 2% more for a year or two before Tesla can either refi or pay off this debt should not slow down gigafactory buildout that has triple-digit ROI.
 
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TradingInvest

Active Member
Mar 8, 2017
1,697
13,689
USA
While I am not a supporter of @myusername 's positions I would point out his charting did predict the rise from an SP of about $200 to the ATH of about $380, IIRC.

Edit: He did indicate he was surprised by the rise but nonetheless he did predict it

TSLA traded between ~180 to ~280 for a long time. Once it breaks out of the all time high, it should have a powerful rally, add $100 (280-180) and hit $380. This is very basic in technical analysis. At the time the CNBC guy (Gordon?) talked about it several times, many traders predicted it too. I still remember a guy asked me why the magical number 380, but really nothing magical about it.

Once you learn about technical analysis, you will see many members are much more experienced than myusername. Take Curt Renz for example, check his posts, he rarely post something wrong.

If someone wants to trade based on charts and technical indicators, each trade should have at least 70% weighted winning chance. If a trader can only get to 60% correct, the wrong trades will cancel the winning trades and it's not worth the effort. myusername is like wrong 80% of the time, no matter it's about technical or fundamental. He might get better over time. For now I keep him on my ignore list.
 
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DurandalAI

Member
Dec 20, 2016
962
2,912
US
If Tesla wants some extra $, they could just open up a 2nd reservation tier.. Those who are willing to put up an extra $5k now towards their Model 3 can bump themselves up in the line compared to those who don't! :D I'm pretty sure they could get 200,000 people to do that, netting in an interest free loan of $1bil. Hey Elon, you listening? I'll throw an extra $5k at my Model 3 reservation, and I bet some here would throw the full car amount at it!
 

MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
15,602
34,273
Oregon
If Tesla wants some extra $, they could just open up a 2nd reservation tier.. Those who are willing to put up an extra $5k now towards their Model 3 can bump themselves up in the line compared to those who don't! :D I'm pretty sure they could get 200,000 people to do that, netting in an interest free loan of $1bil. Hey Elon, you listening? I'll throw an extra $5k at my Model 3 reservation, and I bet some here would throw the full car amount at it!

The problem with that is that it would be a very short term loan, since that would be moving their delivery even sooner. (Since most people ordering a "First Production" or Standard range Model 3 should have their car by March, 2018. [At least in the US.])
 

Ameliorate

Member
May 22, 2016
470
3,562
Victoria, BC Canada
If Tesla wants some extra $, they could just open up a 2nd reservation tier.. Those who are willing to put up an extra $5k now towards their Model 3 can bump themselves up in the line compared to those who don't! :D I'm pretty sure they could get 200,000 people to do that, netting in an interest free loan of $1bil. Hey Elon, you listening? I'll throw an extra $5k at my Model 3 reservation, and I bet some here would throw the full car amount at it!
Curious to see what deals they've arranged for the semi.
Could easily ask for 3k on the pickup reservation I bet.
 

Skryll

Member
Mar 12, 2016
965
3,753
San Francisco,CA
What is the impact of Japanese Softbank $100 billion funds on the future of Tesla?

One of their investments is said to be a company that is supposed to build electric cars: SoftBank Looks To Turn Ola Into Electric Car Manufacturer - Inc42 Media and are buying up robotics SoftBank is buying robotics firms Boston Dynamics and Schaft from Alphabet but also are working with Toyota and Honda on car specific AI techology. The also invest into ARM NVIDIA and some quantum computing companies.

Significant contributors to the fund are saudi arabia and apple
 
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