2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Alketi]

Also fits with Elon's comments a couple of months back about a Tesla music service... that goal may or may not pan out well, but, it's not the wild off the course desperate swing that much of the media tried to characterize it as. Everything that makes you feel at home in your own car seamlessly in every Tesla you enter. I like Tesla's take on luxury : )

Even though this sort of wireless entry has been possible for at least five years, Tesla is about to tie it together in a way that will seem 10 years ahead of its time. Your spouse, your teenager(s) can all have their own custom vehicle experience and it'll happen instantly as they approach and open the door. And the same will someday apply for a total stranger on Tesla's Network.

This is something that's not yet fully understood outside of enthusiast circles. I'm trying to convince myself that this isn't the car industry's iPhone moment, but I'm not having much luck. I think the whole Model 3 experience will go way beyond its price tag and just utterly blow people's minds.

 

[kenliles]

Your spouse, your teenager(s) can all have their own custom vehicle experience and it'll happen instantly as they approach and open the door.

The custom experience of my teens would include the inability to open the door..

 

[Alketi]

The custom experience of my teens would include the inability to open the door..

Dry! Two other possibilities for parents of teens --

— Geofencing the vehicle. Notifying the owner (parent) if the car leaves a certain area.

— Limiting the speed to either a fixed number (e.g. 60MPH/100KPH) or some number related to the speed limit.

Safest vehicle just got even safer(?) Can any other car in existence do either? We're just scratching the surface ...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I just published an article on Ford, and it's amazing to me how clueless Ford investors STILL are about Tesla's impact.

 

[Off Shore]

Moderator Note:
I almost deleted the post in its entirety as there is no justification for your writing style. Cut it out.

Your first instinct was right, IMO.

 

[Ulmo]

re: the rear seat latches and ride-sharing.

I have to admit that I'm surprised that Tesla would appear to have made the trunk accessible by any 3rd party, at least based on the placement of those seat latches. I'm wondering if there's a hidden mechanism that locks those latches and prevents the seats from being pulled down.

Note that if there were a hidden (motorized) locking mechanism it wouldn't need a touchscreen interface. With Bluetooth LE the mechanism could be enabled/disabled automatically upon approach. Owners are unlocked. Everyone else is locked.

I guess we'll find out soon.

I consider trunk space a must-have for taxis and Ubers. I always depend on it. I suspect many other people are the same. Otherwise, why Uber when they could take bicycle/BART/Bus/Train? Well, a million reasons, like it takes all day to do one appointment on bus, and you probably will get seriously ill doing it. But one of the millions of reasons is cargo space. But you're right, another reason is privacy and security, and that goes for any rider of a car.

I use the taxi and Uber trunks for:

• Luggage
• Shopping
• Tools

Every time a taxi or Uber drives up, they open their trunk for me if I have large bags or luggage. Why wouldn't they? I've always known this my whole life: the beauty of a taxi is that it has trunk space. If Tesla is the first ever taxi service to not have trunk space, that would be breaking new ground. But, I see why: owners would consider it their personal vehicles while they use it, and a taxi the rest of the time. The problem comes when the owner puts tools or groceries there for later, and lets the car to taxi service. Taxi users want that space too.

I think Tesla just answered our question: taxi users will get that trunk space. Owners have to coordinate their tools, shopping, and luggage with their drives in such a way they always empty their car, prepared for the taxi services it will provide.

 

[Alketi]

I consider trunk space a must-have for taxis and Ubers. I always depend on it. I suspect many other people are the same. Otherwise, why Uber when they could take BART/Bus/Train?
.

I totally agree. I was wrong about trunk access. It's needed in a taxi and that's why the Model 3's isn't perma-locked through the main display. (I'm glad the team at Tesla is smarter than I am.) The glove-box and (presumably) the frunk will be used for secure storage in a future ride-sharing setup.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

re: the rear seat latches and ride-sharing.

I have to admit that I'm surprised that Tesla would appear to have made the trunk accessible by any 3rd party, at least based on the placement of those seat latches. I'm wondering if there's a hidden mechanism that locks those latches and prevents the seats from being pulled down.

Note that if there were a hidden (motorized) locking mechanism it wouldn't need a touchscreen interface. With Bluetooth LE the mechanism could be enabled/disabled automatically upon approach. Owners are unlocked. Everyone else is locked.

I guess we'll find out soon.

Every Honda I have owned has had a manual trunk release next to the driver's seat. Any 3rd party with access to the cabin can pop open the trunk.

The release can be locked with the master key (and not opened with the valet key), but the lock is trivially easy to bypass with a little effort.

 

[Ulmo]

I totally agree. I was wrong about trunk access. It's needed in a taxi and that's why the Model 3's isn't perma-locked through the main display. (I'm glad the team at Tesla is smarter than I am.) The glove-box and (presumably) the frunk will be used for secure storage in a future ride-sharing setup.

You might be right about it sometimes being private for the owner. I can see a setting where each ride would specify whether they need trunk space or not. I certainly don't want to mess up someone's interior with some objects I'm counting on luggage space for. It becomes a piece of moving real estate with a price.

Interesting. The article states:

Is there a way to prevent folding down rear seats to access the trunk (a software controlled locking latch)?

If so, then making the trunk accessible for patrons (for luggage etc...) could also be an owner-defined capability.

 

[Ugliest1]

I would argue that this is a double edged sword. Continuous improvement is good compared to other automakers, but potentially bad against other Teslas. Not sure which effect is larger.

Yes, [sniff], I never thought Tesla itself would osborne my Dec 2013 car with Autopilot etc

 

[kbM3]

I totally agree. I was wrong about trunk access. It's needed in a taxi and that's why the Model 3's isn't perma-locked through the main display. (I'm glad the team at Tesla is smarter than I am.) The glove-box and (presumably) the frunk will be used for secure storage in a future ride-sharing setup.

Third-party chiming in here.

It is so refreshing to see someone admit when they're wrong. It seems that so few people do this. They get too involved in defending their position.

I strive to be more this way.

 

[dennis]

Even though this sort of wireless entry has been possible for at least five years, Tesla is about to tie it together in a way that will seem 10 years ahead of its time. Your spouse, your teenager(s) can all have their own custom vehicle experience and it'll happen instantly as they approach and open the door. And the same will someday apply for a total stranger on Tesla's Network.

This is something that's not yet fully understood outside of enthusiast circles. I'm trying to convince myself that this isn't the car industry's iPhone moment, but I'm not having much luck. I think the whole Model 3 experience will go way beyond its price tag and just utterly blow people's minds.

Yet another illustration of the giant problem facing existing car manufacturers as they ready they 'Telsa killers' for 2019-2021. Tesla presents a constantly moving target. Offering a product in 2020 designed to compete with 2017 Tesla products just won't cut it.

 

[Intl Professor]

Tesla also has an advantage not considered so far.

The national security argument is often used and misused to justify government and private expenditures. Eisenhower used it in support of the interstate highway system. Now, of course, billions are to be spent on re-weaponizing our nuclear arsenal—a priority of the Obama Administration--until recently “initiated” by Trump.

(For years I used a nuclear war demonstrator in class, a large washtub and 18,000 bbs. Advising students to close their eyes and focus on hearing I would throw one or two bbs into the tub to represent all the munitions used during WWII, and then to represent the explosive power of nuclear weapons in all arsenals those days, gently at first and finally the rest of the bbs in a relative thunderous crescendo, One nuclear bomb can ruin your day. What about thousands? The threat of their use, however, can be used by the North Korean dictator and look-a-likes, to cover domestic infamy.)

Concerning private security, NRA executives have furthered their importance by opposing any efforts to protect others from the miscreants who might gain access to weapons with mental disabilities. Similarly, perhaps that is why nothing became of the idea of Nixon’s psychiatrist’s who publicly called for screening all six-year old males for unfitness to become resident. Why worry about that?

The terrorist weapon du jour is the automobile. How long will it be before we fanboys will demand FSD as a way to de-weaponize cars? Should help SP. The insurance industry will love this if terrorism becomes more rampant.

Not an advice. Simply a cynical take on the news today, yesterday, and forward. Perhaps Elon is right to worry about AI. As the NRA says, people kill people, not guns, so the machines will have to save us from us by destroying us. Certainly humans would never say such things about the human village.

 

[landis]

Even though this sort of wireless entry has been possible for at least five years, Tesla is about to tie it together in a way that will seem 10 years ahead of its time.

I stayed at a Embassy Suites in DE yesterday. I could have checked myself in and let myself into the room using just a smart phone. The provided room keys were NFC cards. So I took the opportunity to explain to my spouse this is just like our M3 will work in December, or so.

The future is coming quickly. I expect that folks that get used to this tech in a hotel will take to it easily in a M3.

 

[Dynastar]

I stayed at a Embassy Suites in DE yesterday. I could have checked myself in and let myself into the room using just a smart phone. The provided room keys were NFC cards. So I took the opportunity to explain to my spouse this is just like our M3 will work in December, or so.

The future is coming quickly. I expect that folks that get used to this tech in a hotel will take to it easily in a M3.

Although I hope the Tesla key works a lot better then the Hilton-brand phone key works, they are slow and unreliable. My favorite was last month in Salt Lake, the entrance from the underground parking requires a key, but there's no cell phone signal down there. Key requires an internet connection to work.

 

[jbcarioca]

...



Why do you say LGD would be high? I agree with the PD...

.

LGD rises with Gross Dealer Margin, options (21" wheels on X, optional sound, extra cost colors etc. on S and X) these typically add about 15%, then service contract etc. with almost no resale value. The first year depreciation excluding adds is 20% at best. So LGD goes up with all of that.

 

[kenliles]

new GF shots taken yesterday:

Tesla Gigafactory 1: new aerial shots and drone video

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Can anyone explain why it was Tesla who's been able to commercialize EAP/FSD, even though Google has been working it since the 90's?

 

[PaulRocket]

Quick question regarding Tesla Model 3 production for Europe, I've been to Tesla Tilburg and one thing that my engineer tour guide made clear was that Model 3 will not be "assembled" in Tilburg. The facility is a semi knocked down factory, which means that the vehicle arrives in a few parts and gets re-assembled there. The line has a capacity of 450 cars per week and some engineers told me that they could probably go up by a bit more.

So what will happen to Model 3 production? Will Tesla assemble the first few cars in Tilburg until the European factory is finished or how should they have a factory up and running by Q3/Q4 of 2018?

 

[elasalle]

Quick question regarding Tesla Model 3 production for Europe, I've been to Tesla Tilburg and one thing that my engineer tour guide made clear was that Model 3 will not be "assembled" in Tilburg. The facility is a semi knocked down factory, which means that the vehicle arrives in a few parts and gets re-assembled there. The line has a capacity of 450 cars per week and some engineers told me that they could probably go up by a bit more.

So what will happen to Model 3 production? Will Tesla assemble the first few cars in Tilburg until the European factory is finished or how should they have a factory up and running by Q3/Q4 of 2018?

Most likely, there will be another GF in Europe ...