Brian,
You have been on both side of the trade on TSLA. Do you agree with the 70 to 80% growth expectation? If so, what multiple on revenue would you put? Say, fair market cap value of 7 to 8x the revenue?
I've already exceeded by "dislike" allotment for all 2017, but assuming I can borrow short against my 2018 "dislike" allotment, I'll try to answer:
It wasn't a growth "expectation." It was Ahuja mis-remembering historical growth "
And our growth rate, I don't recall the exact numbers, but I think it's been in the 70%, 80% every year." It's unclear which metric he is referring to, but most likely either car deliveries or Revenue. (Personally, I think Net Income and Free Cash Flow are the far more critical and determinative measures, but alas both have been growing in the negative direction--primarily because Tesla has achieved delivery and Revenue growth by expanding geographically to ever thinner, ever more remote, and ever more expensive (for SG&A) markets, i.e. Mexico, Portugal, UAE, South Korea, Malaysia(?) etc.--will Taiwan be next? But I digress. I think the only meaningful starting point for calculating, growth regardless of metric, should be 2013, when Tesla first achieved its planned production rate. My record keeping shows:
| YEAR / | Deliveries | ANNUAL % GROWTH | CAGR% | REVENUE $MM | ANNUAL % GROWTH | CAGR% |
| 2013 / | 22,442 | NA | NA | $2013.5 | NA | NA |
| 2014 / | 31,655 | 41% | 41% | $3,198.5 | 59% | 59% |
| 2015 / | 50,866 | 60% | 50% | $4,046.0 | 26% | 41.6% |
| 2016 / | 76,233 | 50% | 51% | $7,000.1 | 73% | 51.8% |
| 2017 / | 100,00(e) | 31% | 45% | $11,295 | 61% | 53.4% |
The 2016 & estimated 2017 Revenue "growth" percentages are distorted by the SCTY bailout.
Will you be a buyer at this stage? What is your take on the ER and CC? Thanks
I'm perennially both a buyer and a seller with Buffet's "instruments of mass (financial) destruction" , aka a gambler in Tesla's momo shares/options for entertainment. (FWIW, I'm selling OTM puts further from the share price and OTM calls closer to the share price, but adjust daily based on news.)
IMO, the ER and CC demonstrate Tesla's challenges and the lack of depth of Tesla's bench. Its 2 top executives (the CEO & CTO) are thrown full-time into the breech to solve issues that should have been avoided; but in any event, been delegated to lower level executives. The future is now here--Tesla must execute profitably on the M3. My current sentiment is negative, but I'll adjust as new filings or credible news disclose Tesla's progress.
FIRE AWAY!
