Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
The only real bear argument that holds water I've heard in a while is valuation. And valuation is seems to be individual-dependent, depending on the type of company you think a Tesla is.
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The only real bear argument that holds water I've heard in a while is valuation. And valuation is seems to be individual-dependent, depending on the type of company you think a Tesla is.
I am uneasy about the service center situation as well. These recalls (e.g. airbag, parking brake) do not help the situation. Even though they are not Tesla's "fault" and are paid for by the vendor, they still increase the workload on the service centers which is a bad thing.
How feasible would it be to partner with some 3rd party to offload some of these service requirements, especially with Model 3 coming soon? Do you think this is likely or unlikely? Could a company like Midas, for example, and Tesla come to a mutually beneficial agreement that would be in the best interests of customers? If not Midas, is there some "high-end" service company that could fill in the gaps?
Yeah, I don't even hear DCF valuation or P / projected E valuation bear arguments very often.
I see comparative valution arguments, but they're jokes -- reasoning by analogy and not from first principles. As one article pointed out, Ford and GM are *penalized* by the market for their reputation for horrible strategic mistakes and execution failure, so comparing to them says more about them than about Tesla. I think the same is true of comparisons to Apple and Amazon -- it says more about Apple and Amazon than about Tesla.
Here's a little nugget from the Lilium blog a few months ago:
Today I am very happy to announce that Meggy Sailer has joined Lilium as Head of Recruiting. After more than 5 years at Tesla, Meggy brings excellent experience of staffing a cutting-edge transportation company and will help us grow our staff of specialists in Munich.
She started at Tesla when they were still in their start-up phase themselves. Meggy helped to grow the company from 200 to 13.000 employees in just about three years time, so she knows the pace of a rapidly growing company. Additionally, Meggy knows the field of groundbreaking electric transportation first hand and I am delighted that she’s now shifting her attention to the skies.
Overtaking F in market cap. He did that sooner than anyone expected. That's real by the way.
And Elon and Tesla actually do accomplish what they promise.
Still waiting to see any real accomplishments from Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, BMW, Jaguar, etc. in making a compelling electric vehicle. Funny how you seem to ignore that they have accomplished NOTHING so far.
Keep dreaming.
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To those who think the German possible labor issue is similar to the typical adversarial relation in the US, I have reservations. I have already noted the difference in cooperative labor/managemant in Germany. However I did not point out the national pride that Germans have in supporting their auto industry. Tesla is asking them to work for an outside "American electric car company" and abandon their contact with their "home" companies. This is not a $$ issue as much as it is a national loyalty issue it seems to me. My Son-in-law is German and despite my efforts to convince him of the positives of Tesla he is determined to support BMW. IMO these employee value their relationship with German companies. To me this would be like asking Harley Davidson employees to make Vespas. Part of this transition must be to show them that Tesla is better than BMW. I welcome the opinions of Europeans on this subject.
I was thinking of a good bear argument for Tesla. Something reasonable just to temper my optimism. My thought is Tesla has too many irons in the fire at the moment. Dreadnought, Energy, Roofs, legacy SCTY stuff, Self Driving, Trucks, Tesla Network, Battery tech advances, new gigafactories and further along the line there is Pick up, Roadster. And Elon's brain is an idea machine (Neuralink, Boring, Open AI). Also SpaceX is his wife#1. Even within SpaceX the canvas is as vast as it is in Tesla (Dragon2, Falcon Heavy, ITS, Raptor, the new satellite constellation / internet business) and he is the Chief Technical Architect there.
There is obviously a thinning in focus, though arguably Elon has found great stewards for many of these businesses and doesnt get involved in too much detail unless there is a major issue.
To be sure, I am not unhappy that Tesla is doing a lot of the above at the same time. There is obviously a case to be made that this combination is what makes Tesla invincible. The question is - is it the optimal number of initiatives to be undertaking and would it be better if Tesla slightly narrowed its focus to make sure it hits the ball out of the park. Does this let folks come out of the left field and overtake Tesla. One thing that comes to mind is the superb self-driving videos we've seen from Cruise Automation etc. Waymo obviously has an enormous lead in terms of time with the Tech. Tesla obviously has most data and that is what counts for the most. But we've not seen that translated yet into the V2 of the paint-it-black Video. I trust Tesla is making progress, but would love to see some more both in demo videos and in real-world tech getting delivered.
There is obviously a thinning in focus, though arguably Elon has found great stewards for many of these businesses and doesnt get involved in too much detail unless there is a major issue.
To be sure, I am not unhappy that Tesla is doing a lot of the above at the same time. There is obviously a case to be made that this combination is what makes Tesla invincible. The question is - is it the optimal number of initiatives to be undertaking and would it be better if Tesla slightly narrowed its focus to make sure it hits the ball out of the park. Does this let folks come out of the left field and overtake Tesla. One thing that comes to mind is the superb self-driving videos we've seen from Cruise Automation etc. Waymo obviously has an enormous lead in terms of time with the Tech. Tesla obviously has most data and that is what counts for the most. But we've not seen that translated yet into the V2 of the paint-it-black Video. I trust Tesla is making progress, but would love to see some more both in demo videos and in real-world tech getting delivered.
I was thinking the exact same thing. I wouldn't mind investing in Lilium. They have the best concept for a "flying car"-type vehicle I've ever seen.
mmd
Active Member
Yes, exactly the same was pointed out by me on Oct 13th. It is wrt Bertel's article that said, Tesla needs billions to build the service network. Alas! We can make the blind see. But no one can make those who keep their eyes closed willfully see the light. While Elon has been dropping bombastic statements about machines making machines, raw materials converting into cars by magic at the other end of the factory, 150 GWh battery with some magic physics on packing in factory floor, real people in the auto industry have been telling the reality. Alas. We can make the deaf hear with medical help. but no one can... Oh well.
Tesla's Billion-Dollar Problem: Who Will Sell And Service All Those Cars?
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
mmd Oct 13 said:
And again!
And here is @mmd on upcoming AP fiasco 6 months ago.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
mmd Oct 30 said:
What you guys see post factum, I see in advance
Till Tesla invests heavily in their service center and supercharger expansion, I do not believe Tesla has any plan to do a volume launch of Model 3 anytime soon. It will just be some pixel leaks and such, to keep fooling investors. May be a few beta cars, for which Elon already got his options vested.
sundaymorning
Active Member
sub
Active Member
Christians are more logical than the Bears on this forum. I have a long and distinguished ignore list. I'm concerned for anyones financial well being if they find anything they say here beneficial.
I'll sum it up for you, *sugar* can happen. Done, no bull echo chamber.
I'll sum it up for you, *sugar* can happen. Done, no bull echo chamber.
sundaymorning
Active Member
The amount of regulations that go into flying cars will likely BK the company. If not, then it'll only take one accident of a "flying car" to fall from the sky for investors to freak out. Let's see, who should I trust to build a car for my family of 5? GM, Ford, a new startup? Even if Tesla built one tomorrow I wouldn't touch it until at least 20 years later when the company has shown it is by an order of magnitude safer than driving. Yes, currently airplanes are much safer than driving, but when you add an extra 10,000 flying cars to a city full of drunk and maniac flyers racing from point A to point B... no thanks, I'll take the long route and drive, and no way I'm going to allow that thing to fly over my neighborhood.
Some immediate regulations I can think of right now:
1. Windows must always be shut while flying, so nothing can "accidentally" fall out and clunk someone on the head.
2. Landing zones must have operators just like airports regulating how many vehicles can land at a time.
3. All vehicles must be inspected at a minimum 3-4 times per year to ensure parts are functioning at high levels (similar to airplane inspections but with less rigor).
4. No fly zones: over schools, stadiums, theme parks, down-town where there are a ton of pedestrians/skyscrapers. I don't want to see Sept. 11th happening again. It's bad enough that terrorrists are using cars and trucks, but flying cars where there are minimal police security? No thanks.
5. Taxes. Luxury taxes similar to owning boats.
6. Repairs must be with OEM parts only, no knockoffs.
7. Insurance policy holders must be insured up to a minimum of $500,000. Drop one of these things in a home in California and that's the average home price. This does not even include injury liabilities. Drop one of these things on a public mall, and we're talking millions in liability.
8. Licensing: required minimum of 40 hours (similar to helicopter pilots) through an accredited flight school.
Yes it looks fun, but the consequence of one of these flying cars going "bad" can ultimately result in not only your entire life's savings flushed down the toilet, but also losing your life and killing innocent bystanders. Is the technology there yet?
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I agree regulation is likely the biggest challenge. But removing the controls (only having autopilot) and adding a parachute with a manual release, and I think it will work. The regulation will follow. Cirrus Aircraft | Airframe Parachute
sundaymorning
Active Member
I made an edit to my post. One of the main regulation or requirement for operating such a vehicle should also include a huge insurance policy for liability purposes. For example, if this thing drops from the sky onto someone's home, they must pay for the damages done to the value of the home plus personal injury. In a place like California, an average home is $500k. If you're the average Joe and plow one into a mall and happen to burn down a large portion of the area, you're on the hook for a multimillion dollar lawsuit. Personally, it's too much of a risk for me.. the insurance policy alone would prevent the average middle class from maintaining such vehicle. The reason why airplanes are safe is because they have airports that regulate and direct landing/takeoff. Without a special landing or takeoff operator or zone, flying cars will be too impractical. Unless AI totally takes over.
Not to derail the thread further, but I expect the rollout would be something like this:
1. Initial production is with flight controls. You need to be a pilot to operate the aircraft, and all current regulation must be followed.
2. Flight controls are removed, autopilot only. Businesses get permission to fly along certain flight corridors, between airports, heliports and the like.
3. Fly zones are regulated, where flying cars are allowed, even in private ownership.
4. The airspace is opened up further, fly zones are replaced with no fly zones for some areas.
Anyway, if Tesla decided to buy Lilium, I'd support it 100%. They should try to keep the company separate, and just fully fund them. The danger is to squash a startup with corporate BS too soon. Tesla should be able to help Lillum with the electric driveline though, and I'm sure SpaceX could help too, provided they could get export licences.
People still have problems grasping the concept of autonomous cars and you are already in autonomous planes?
Now, cool down would you?
Now, cool down would you?
Autonomous planes are way easier than autonomous cars though. People will accept them once they accept autonomous cars, which is in the very near future.
sundaymorning
Active Member
SF Tesla can help. They're literally miles away from you.
Power restored in SF after blackout shuts businesses, cable cars
Power restored in SF after blackout shuts businesses, cable cars
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