2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[esk8mw]

I heard the Model 3 timeline reiterated and that is the best news we could have hoped for. We are so close to launch at this point.

I also heard (in my head) a teaser for a surprise reveal of the Pickup this September to go along with the Semi. He mentioned a couple future products (without mentioning the Pickup) then said we have more planned - oh and check out the Semi reveal, there might be more to it. Seems pretty obvious to me.

SP should continue to run or consolidate I'm guessing. I didn't hear anything disappointing.

 

[tander]

I think it could be possible to have a super dense urban charging site. I've seen some urban parking areas with multi-level shelving for cars. If the cars can drive themselves on Autopilot, people can just drop the car off at the parking area, and the car will park and charge itself.

That would be really cool. A lot of the apartments in my area have roofs and reserved spots which seems like it'd be easy to turn into charging sites, the landlords would probably like being able to put Tesla in their advertising.

 

[zdriver]

So was there anything market moving in that? I saw a lot of positive stuff, but I could see the headlines "Tesla needs money for new car plant"

Closest thing might be the mention that semi customers are already engaged in the design process, which implies they've already got customers lined up.

 

[tander]

I have said earlier today (to @Reciprocity I believe) that Model Y price may be priced lower than Model 3.

Elon's comment is in-line with my projection.

I really wonder if they'll start lowering the price every year, Henry Ford did it and that worked out okay.

 

[Mkorpal]

By far the biggest take away from the meeting was customer input into the semi.

 

[EinSV]

I heard the Model 3 timeline reiterated and that is the best news we could have hoped for. We are so close to launch at this point.

I also heard (in my head) a teaser for a surprise reveal of the Pickup this September to go along with the Semi. He mentioned a couple future products (without mentioning the Pickup) then said we have more planned - oh and check out the Semi reveal, there might be more to it. Seems pretty obvious to me.

SP should continue to run or consolidate I'm guessing. I didn't hear anything disappointing.

Pure speculation and could be dead wrong but I had the same thought re the Pickup .....

Model 3 on time plus details on Semi and Model Y were all promising news.

10, 12 or possibly 20 GFs in the future confirm big plans w/o getting into the weeds, which is fine.

 

[generalenthu]

Starting to worry now as alcohol and Ambien are contra-indicated.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm not so sure about the last paragraph.

Elon's comments on Model Y production line ("there will be nothing close to it"), I think, is telling.

We may get a surprising low price for Model Y.

Elon's comments on Model Y at the shareholder meeting are in-line with my bolded projection above.

Model Y will be a game-changer for the auto industry.

 

[tander]

I heard the Model 3 timeline reiterated and that is the best news we could have hoped for. We are so close to launch at this point.

I also heard (in my head) a teaser for a surprise reveal of the Pickup this September to go along with the Semi. He mentioned a couple future products (without mentioning the Pickup) then said we have more planned - oh and check out the Semi reveal, there might be more to it. Seems pretty obvious to me.

SP should continue to run or consolidate I'm guessing. I didn't hear anything disappointing.

The pickup idea could make sense, they probably already had it half designed by the time they decided to do Semis first, but I would think they would do a separate thing for the pickup. My guess is they've just made the cab a lot cooler and using solar panels somehow, plus the whole self-driving thing.

 

[Ugliest1]

Ähhhh no

How about if this video is not reposted again? I was at the 2014 shareholder meeting and saw/heard it live. While the speech itself was unconventional, I don't see a need to attempt to social-media-shame this person any more. He also attended the lunch organized afterwards by a couple of people that about 20 of us attended, and he seemed like a nice guy. I know nothing is ever deleted from the internet, but let's give him a break.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Pure speculation and could be dead wrong but I had the same thought re the Pickup .....

Model 3 on time plus details on Semi and Model Y were all promising news.

10, 12 or possibly 20 GFs in the future confirm big plans w/o getting into the weeds, which is fine.

20 Gigafactories could mean 25m+ cars per year, assuming no further increase in production rate, which is unrealistically conservative.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I really wonder if they'll start lowering the price every year, Henry Ford did it and that worked out okay.

I see this as the most likely scenario, which is why I expect majority of ICE manufacturers to file for bankruptcy.

They already have very thin margins, and they can't lower prices as Tesla can.

And their balance sheets are full of debt.

 

[dc_h]

20 Gigafactories could mean 25m+ cars per year, assuming no further increase in production rate, which is unrealistic.

I have to question your bullish tendencies.

 

[Mkorpal]

I don't see it being the pickup since they told us recently that would be in 2019. Since they will be revealing a commercial cargo carrying vehicle, maybe it will be the Tesla container ship.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If I remember correctly, his quote was 'by the end of next year'. How does that end up being 'July' in your original post? You stepped back from that after a brief exchange and now claim November which is certainly much more reasonable. But if that's the depth of the research that is underpinning your claims, how should we read the rest of them?



Because it sells cars (and options).



I think no one is seriously disputing all this (except that it took just 6 months, it's closer to a year ago that we learned Tesla was already transitioning to their own solution. Tesla Vision, the project, may have been underway even longer beforehand). Even then there is a huge leap to go from there to your earlier claims.

Honestly, and it probably shows in my last exchange here, I am quite annoyed with your continued insistance to play a very loose game with the facts as they are really publicly known and those who upvote them. Sometimes you have good insight but lately it's more tilting towards wild claims without any substance. I wish we'd get back to more fact based research instead of the wishfull thinking based one.

Elon's comments during the shareholder meeting is in-line with my projection.

"Next week's software update will improve Hardware 2 experience to above Hardware 1."

"And will advance very rapidly thereafter."

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Tesla Semi will enable Tesla to deliver its cars to customers using its own product.

I for one can't wait to have a Tesla Semi show up to deliver my new car.

 

[generalenthu]

For some complete counterprogramming, which will never come to pass.

Trump pitched Republican leaders on a solar-paneled border wall

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I have to question your bullish tendencies.

You should. I welcome it.

But I am NOT pulling stuff out of thin air, as someone earlier today suggested.

It's frustrating when some (not you) confuse personal attacks with thoughtful criticism, even as my "bullish tendencies" are proven right repeatedly.

Ok. I'll leave it at that, and get back to typing up my notes on the Shareholder Meeting.

 

[EinSV]

20 Gigafactories could mean 25m+ cars per year, assuming no further increase in production rate, which is stupidly conservative.

Not sure how much of the capacity would be producing solar roofs/panels and storage, and how much would be used for battery dense vehicles like the Semi and Pickup. But .... 10-20 GFs would produce an enormous number of vehicles -- seems like an order of magnitude above the 1M in 2020 target (possibly more) is not an unreasonable estimate.

 

[Mkorpal]

Also, I thought at one point Elon mentioned that this was as cheap as Tesla intended to go. Price isn't just about manufacturing costs, it's also about market segments and status.