Yes, I see it rising a little bit. If AP 2.0 features show up and people get excited about it - it should rise a bit.
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Yes, I see it rising a little bit. If AP 2.0 features show up and people get excited about it - it should rise a bit.
Indeed, some from the press would have to be there to insure that fresh material information is not restricted to a select few investors. Perhaps TMC member Fred Lambert of Electrek can chime in on this.
Opening remarks are expected at 9:00 a.m. PST (Noon EST). Electrek article: Tesla CEO Elon Musk to participate in Q&A at a Gigafactory event for investors next week
In a parallel universe where Tesla Motors is revered as the communications master upon which all others strive to be...
Have to pat myself on the back a bit
22,200/25,000 = 89%
Another interesting bit
The "delivery spreadsheet" shows: Q4 rows 259 / Q3 rows 300 = 86.3%
The music is similar in different rooms of the house.
Truly amazing that anyone can say Tesla missed anything. About 2750 vehicles were not counted because of transportation delays or because the customer couldn't physically take delivery (Was on vacation or away for the holidays?)
76,230 + 2750 = 78,980 (A whopping 1.3% below expectations) even with supplier delays and the major software update.
Also, 6450 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter.
76,230 + 2750 = 78,980 (A whopping 1.3% below expectations) even with supplier delays and the major software update.
Also, 6450 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter.
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dennis
Model S Plaid
There are only 10 AP1 cars in the US shown today in ev-cpo, and all of them are demos. A different story in Europe where there are 400 and more than 300 have only delivery miles. There are more AP2 cars in inventory than AP1 cars.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Since I am staunchly anti-AP I would be perfectly happy with an AP1 if only to use the sensors to augment my situational awareness while driving. If only the timing were right for me to swap out my aging, pre-AP, pre-D, pre-parking sensors, 2013 Model S jalopy for a shiny inventory AP1 car.... timing ain't right though. Hopefully there are thousands of others like me drooling for an inventory AP1 car
C'mon Tesla, make a great deal...
dennis
Model S Plaid
I read it a different way. There was no point in offering big discounts because they were production constrained in the quarter. No point in discounting something you can't deliver. Also they worked manufacturing really hard over the Christmas holidays in order to get to the good production number even though they couldn't deliver those cars. So Tesla still does care about the quarterly numbers.
Edit: @dandurston beat me too it with the same conclusion
Waiting4M3
Active Member
That's one way to look at the math, 9 days out of a year. Another way to look at it is that on Oct 26, with ~66 days left in the year including holidays, the issued a guidance, and 66 days later, they missed it by 9 days, and this is due to one piece on a mature product.
My main concern is how does this kind of delay translate to M3 ramp? The best case scenario is that all parts that will go into M3 are also proved out in MS/MX, but we simply don't know, the worst case could be that there will be multiple of these 9 days kind of delay, each could contribute to 10-15% schedule delay. In that case I can see Adam Jonas scenario becoming a reality.
BTW I'm fully long on TSLA, so if I'm so pessimistic on TSLA, it's probably time to buy.
Which they have every quarter, so this really is nothing new.
When the InsideEV numbers came out for Sept and then again for October, the chorus here was "but that is because all the cars and many of the 'in transit' vehicles from the previous quarter are for overseas dues to the shipping time frames etc".
It depends on how much you take what a company says at face value about why they missed their numbers.
Clearly, the M3 will have more "new"/"unknown" things than a 4 year old MS (although has had updates) or a 1 year old MX and so will they take that much more time to work out all the issues before going live or will that Hubris guy be back on the job and think they got it.
3Victoria
Active Member
Actually this would be a good thing ... maybe I can buy more stock at a lower price.
3Victoria
Active Member
There may be multiple, but hopefully they will happen in parallel and not serially, and the total felay will be much shorter. I can only surmise that the analyst misread Tesla's guidance for new orders as applying to all reservations, cause his prediction is way off.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Before Adam Jonas went all negative on the M3 target, we at least had some "Jonalism" to counter these "Journalism", but now, no one in financial reporting has anything good to say about Tesla.
Based on the information we have, I see an extremely good quarter.
Think about it: last year at this time Tesla was working out its delivery guidance for 2016, as they are currently working on the same for 2017. While there are other inputs to this estimation (ie, product improvements that may be announced during the year to come) I doubt either year had a more important input than the current rate of net orders. So, when Tesla guided to 80-90K deliveries a year ago, they did so with a net order rate roughly 33% below the net order rate they are heavily drawing on right now to estimate 2017 deliveries. I know Q4 (some of it anyhow) was helped by the phasing out of free SuperCharging, but orders up 52% YOY, that's huge (hard to imagine it's mostly the free SuperCharging deadline).
Tomorrow and/or on the earnings called the analysts are likely to poke at this to see if this YOY figure is really as good it looks now. If it's real, hitting production but not quite getting those cars to customers? Big meh... fine quarter Tesla!
Think about it: last year at this time Tesla was working out its delivery guidance for 2016, as they are currently working on the same for 2017. While there are other inputs to this estimation (ie, product improvements that may be announced during the year to come) I doubt either year had a more important input than the current rate of net orders. So, when Tesla guided to 80-90K deliveries a year ago, they did so with a net order rate roughly 33% below the net order rate they are heavily drawing on right now to estimate 2017 deliveries. I know Q4 (some of it anyhow) was helped by the phasing out of free SuperCharging, but orders up 52% YOY, that's huge (hard to imagine it's mostly the free SuperCharging deadline).
Tomorrow and/or on the earnings called the analysts are likely to poke at this to see if this YOY figure is really as good it looks now. If it's real, hitting production but not quite getting those cars to customers? Big meh... fine quarter Tesla!
My take : they built new demo cars with AP2 functionality. But with EAP not ready at all, they couldn't aggressively sell out their old inventory like they did with pre-facelift cars last quarter. Because then they would be left with no way to show autopilot to buyers. That leaves many sales centers with both AP1 and AP2 demo cars. It also explains why there was relatively little discounting and hence why they fell short of their sales goals.
3Victoria
Active Member
Yes, but that is because all the stories read "missed guidance..." instead of "showed outstanding yoy growth and excellent demand ..." .... how else would the market respond but to the headlines.
Depends on how much you believe they are demand constrained vs. production constrained.
If you believe they are more production constrained, then you need to think about what they need to do to reduce that constraint while setting up to do several times more in volume for the M3.
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