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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I am getting more and more the impression that lots of shorts were hoping for a realistic black swan event. Their calculus was that a Republican President together with big oil would kill the EV revolution again just like we have seen more than one decade ago.
Well, in this case it looks like history is not repeating.
IMO it was one of EM's best decisions ever to join the President's tech adviser team. Must have been a tough decision as we all know there are quite some opinions these two guys do not share.

It may be premature to declare the "all-clear" with the Trump administration. On the other hand, 18 days down, only 1443 days to go (but who's counting? ;)).

I do agree that so far, so good with Trump, and that has been a huge disappointment to the shorts. The Jan. 4 event dashing short's dreams that the Gigafactory was just a huge mirage in the Nevada desert probably didn't hurt either.
 
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Speaking of the tunnel, can someone explain how Elon managed to get the city, the county, the state, and no doubt federal authorities to sign off on the project so fast? These things are major deals. What environmental, geological, seismological, safety, traffic, and other reviews were done -- in record time? When and where were hearings held? Who gets to use the tunnel and where does it connect to surface roads? Who's paying for it? Who owns it?

The whole thing seems crazy to me.
 
Speaking of the tunnel, can someone explain how Elon managed to get the city, the county, the state, and no doubt federal authorities to sign off on the project so fast? These things are major deals. What environmental, geological, seismological, safety, traffic, and other reviews were done -- in record time? When and where were hearings held? Who gets to use the tunnel and where does it connect to surface roads? Who's paying for it? Who owns it?

The whole thing seems crazy to me.
Its a private tunnel on SpaceX property. He doesn't need any of those approvals, except maybe a building permit from the city.
 
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Mark Spiegel claims he is going on Bill Oreilly tonight Fox TV to spew his Tesla hatred.
I'm disappointed he continues to get such tall platforms from which to speak. I wonder how much research Bill will do, and whether his position will automatically coincide with anti-green, given that Elon is now at the white house and advising on the jobs and manufacturing front. Can't wait to see the clip. Perhaps Mark gets taken apart by Bill?
 
Incase MSNBC & CNN is preoccupied with other topics this just happened
Screen Shot 2017-02-07 at 6.47.44 AM.png
 
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Elon just tweeted again, saying that there's no plans to go above 100kwh for the S and X, Pickup might go over 100 and Semi definitely will go over 100.

I realize this doesn't close the door on making things bigger than 100, but it's odd to me why he's so insistent on 100 being a local limit for the S/X. Yes, I know he wants to protect 100 buyers and make them feel good about the purchase. On the other hand, he didn't make similar statements with the 85 and 90 being limits so there must be something more behind this thinking.

There's definitely some edge cases out there (like me) who would like to see even higher range. For example, I have a 300 mile trip I make fairly often and I'd like to have the option to drive straight through if I want. Yes, I know about the benefits of stopping frequently (I have young kids and I'm on my second Model S) - but I think anyone would concede having more options when travelling is better than fewer. Some people like to power through long trips, especially younger people.

Also, I can tell you that outside of CA, there's 2 overwhelming sentiments among electric car skeptics: (i) electric cars need to charge faster, almost to gas station levels and (ii) range needs to approach gas cars, so like 350-500. Don't waste words telling me that this is "behind the times" reasoning by analogy that presupposes gas car methods are superior - I know. But it doesn't matter; old habits die hard. To bring these people on board, I think a 125 needs to be available once the GGF is pumping out batteries at a sustainable rate. There's demand for this, people are willing to pay for it and margins on batteries will only increase over time.

I suspect that once the GGF is producing at a high rate in a year Elon will introduce a 120 or 125, citing demand - just as he did with the 60.
 
Elon just tweeted again, saying that there's no plans to go above 100kwh for the S and X, Pickup might go over 100 and Semi definitely will go over 100.

I realize this doesn't close the door on making things bigger than 100, but it's odd to me why he's so insistent on 100 being a local limit for the S/X. Yes, I know he wants to protect 100 buyers and make them feel good about the purchase. On the other hand, he didn't make similar statements with the 85 and 90 being limits so there must be something more behind this thinking.

There's definitely some edge cases out there (like me) who would like to see even higher range. For example, I have a 300 mile trip I make fairly often and I'd like to have the option to drive straight through if I want. Yes, I know about the benefits of stopping frequently (I have young kids and I'm on my second Model S) - but I think anyone would concede having more options when travelling is better than fewer. Some people like to power through long trips, especially younger people.

Also, I can tell you that outside of CA, there's 2 overwhelming sentiments among electric car skeptics: (i) electric cars need to charge faster, almost to gas station levels and (ii) range needs to approach gas cars, so like 350-500. Don't waste words telling me that this is "behind the times" reasoning by analogy that presupposes gas car methods are superior - I know. But it doesn't matter; old habits die hard. To bring these people on board, I think a 125 needs to be available once the GGF is pumping out batteries at a sustainable rate. There's demand for this, people are willing to pay for it and margins on batteries will only increase over time.

I suspect that once the GGF is producing at a high rate in a year Elon will introduce a 120 or 125, citing demand - just as he did with the 60.

I think the likely answer is that the next gen Supercharger will be so fast added range won't be as meaningful/necessary.
 
They have no plans for anything above 100kWh because there is no competition.

The battery capacity of an electric car is somewhat like the resolution of a CCD in a digital camera. All sorts of factors are really in play, but the one feature that the media and the public watch is "how many megapixels is it?" This focus has somewhat lessened recently, but you get my point. When Mercedes and the others tout cars with greater than 100kWh, it may become time for Tesla to respond. And Tesla would be better placed than anyone else to respond.

When cars are autonomous, they can be charged much more invisibly, and the actual range-without-charging of a car will be less important. Until then - increasing the number of charging locations, speeding up charging, lightening the battery pack, and increasing range via improved power electronics and aerodynamics will be the way forward.
 
Elon likes the 100 kWh pack right now, because the more batteries you add, the less efficient the car gets. It's sure nice to have 400 miles of range but if the car needs 50% more energy per mile then right now and 95% of people think 300 miles is enough, there's no point of adding an even larger battery.
They will make the pack a lot lighter using the new 2170 cells, which will further increase the range and 0-60 performance and then add a larger battery pack when Mercedes and Porsche come out with their 250 mile EVs. That would make them look like fools.
 
So Elon says no 100kWh Model 3.

Won't fit the wheelbase.

Most gas cars have a typical range in the 300mi City/400mi Highway territory. (Yes, I know there are a few outliers for which this isn't true, but the majority of cars I've driven have their fuel tanks sized so their range is approximately this).

S 100D is there already.

I fully expect Model 3, with a lower Cd of 0.21 instead of 0.24, and a smaller frontal area than Model S, should be able to squeeze similar range from a battery in the 85kWh territory.

If the rumored upgraded supercharger can drop charge time to 80% from ~30 minutes to ~10 (and this doesn't sound unreasonable to me given the current SC at around 120kW vs Elon saying the new one is >350kW), then there is virtually no tradeoff between a Model 3 and a gas car. It takes about a 10 minute stop at a gas station to fill your gas car now, by the time you pump the gas and pay for it.
 
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