2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Paracelsus]

Musk gets thousands of inquiries like this. Why did he respond to this one? I suspect he may be actually considering the location.

What's our best thinking on GF 3 and 4? I keep thinking one of them needs to be an auto+battery plant in Europe. I get the impression that the S/X capacity in Fremont will never be increased. Rather if more than 100k/yr are needed, it will be a plant on another continent. Then a another plant in Asia.

So how would a TriState GF figure in?

Agreed. And I think the odds that the next Gigafactory is also scaled to accommodate the production of pickups and/or semi trucks is pretty good. As such this location would have even more benefit since those items will likely include a LOT of steel.

 

[DurandalAI]

Disney developing wireless charging technology, seriously?
Disney Research Demonstrates Contactless Charging

My mind is spinning with wireless battery powered attractions at Disney World.

Good, they can finally get rid of those stupid 2-cycle gokarts at "Future" world. Not so futuristic with all the noisy, dirty, stinky dino burners..
Speaking of wireless charging.. Here's some stupid from Honda.
Honda wants to charge electric vehicles dynamically for ‘unlimited range’ on highways

 

[phigment]

Tesla - Current Report

From the 8-K just filed:
Mr. Ahuja will have an annual base salary of $500,000 and will receive a $15 million new hire equity grant (in the form of RSUs or stock options, or a combination thereof), which will be granted and will vest over four years in accordance with the Company’s standard equity policies.

I don't know much about executive salaries... is that the going rate for a CFO? Nice 'new hire' grant!

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I don't think that is what he said. He said to his party member, speaker Ryan, it would be politically beneficial if the GOP did nothing and let Obamacare implode. He CONTINUED and said this would be no good for the American people. Won't be the right thing to do and therefore it should be fixed. Why cut his last part out on what he said like how all the dishonest media do?

If you believe what you just said that would affirm Obamacare is imploding? Meaning it was a failure before Trump become the president. Shouldn't you ask the democratic why this was so badly crafted? Or at lest blame them a little?

We are on the same flight it's okay to root for the pilot once a while. He fails we all fail too.

If the US government doesn't work to
Improve Obamacare and act to fix existing problems, or simply chooses to neglect it, it will implode.

If you build a house and it turns out some parts of the house were built using poor quality parts or specific sections needs to be redone for structural reasons, and you choose to ignore the problems rather than trying to fix them, the house will eventually be too expensive to fix, and might have significant structural problems down the line that make it impossible to fix.

Your line of thinking is wrong. There is only one side to this point. Trump is not acting as a responsible stuart, and has basically made it clear he want to dismantle/break the United States as it exists today, and turn it into something else.

The GOP would gladly allow the country to burn, if they felt it would mean a loss of face and power for the demofrats. This talk is partisanshup is stupid. The GOP should focus on doing what's right, not what they promised or what their constituents think they want. Trump is a hypocrit and a liar. Bannon has been fairly direct about his vision of the future.

 

[jhm]

Just pick

Does tri-State include Indiana. Few weeks back we know VP called EM ..

I'm not sure if Musk is talking about the Cincinnati or Pittsburg tri-state areas. By the context, I don't think he is talking about Indiana, but I do wonder if he is working connections with the WH in any case.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Can someone name me a significant car company out there with just one car model? How about any gadget company with just one level of product? Every significant company has a line of product to suit all type of buyers. Why we are talking about M3 catabolizing S/X sales is beyond my simple mind to comprehend.
Doesn't Mercedes have the A, B, C, D, E , F , G, H, I, J, K, etc class of cars? So right at Tesla with just 2 models we should worry about nothing but how M3 will kill the sale of S/X. Give me a break.

There is a lot of evidence directly here on TMC that suggests that S/X purchases were the most expensive cars they ever bought. Many people push themselves into buying an S because Tesla cars are "so cool" or because of environmental concerns... All sorts of surveys showed up over the course of years which asked what was the buyers prior car or what other car(s) do they have in their garage etc. An overwhelming (maybe >80%) buyers were NOT from the 80K to 120K price range. They pushed themselves into buying "a tesla". A lot of these people may choose a 3 if there is an option. Certainly not all of the push-up buyers but many of them, whoever can be ok with a smaller car.

SBenson does raise a good point, with observations that correlate with what I've observed among Model S buyers. There were a significant # of "Early Adopters" here at TMC that normally would not have spent 80-120k on a car, but did so on the Model S because they believed in EVs, wanted an EV that could substitute for almost any car, and had only the Model S as an option because of this.

The question is whether current and near future prospective buyers of the Model S fall into this category of people who are willing to "stretch" the budget A LOT to obtain a Model S. These people reasonably could opt for a Model 3 instead.

The counterargument is that Model 3 has been mostly revealed for almost a year, and anyone contemplating a Tesla purchase would have already decided whether or not to wait for the 3 in order to save $.

 

[ggies07]

Elon is busy again on Twitter this morning.

Most interesting -- teasing a potential GF near a West Virginia tri-state border (I think there are at least two of these, including the Pittsburgh area). This part of the country seems like a great place to build an all-American Tesla pickup truck and sure could use good jobs.

1. John Paul Brewer‏@johnpaulbrewer 2h2 hours ago
   @elonmusk Is there any chance you would want to build something in WV? We need jobs, we have a good work force, coal isn't the future.
   
   1 reply0 retweets3 likes
   

Elon MuskVerified account‏@elonmusk
@johnpaulbrewer Something on a tristate border might work. Gigafactory plus nearby supporting supply chain needs a very large workforce.

Man, this would be the ultimate political win for switching the last coal states to renewable energy. No more excuses on lost jobs and would take away the political lobbying/political control in Congress.

 

[bonaire]

WV has almost the cheapest electricity in the country. Good for EVs! However, it's cheap because it's coal energy. Flip-flopping to renewables will make it cost more on a grid-level scale. Coal runs 24x7. Solar can run well day-time, charge some batteries and offset some peaking now.

In the interim, more NG burning plants in OH, WV and PA are helping clean the regional grid about 25%. NG also cuts jobs due to the cleaner burn - fewer people needed for the coal wrangling. So, I suspect EVs can push the region up in terms of NG fracking before big-scale renewables come to the region. There are ranges of NY/PA and further south with wind farms and there is some hydro including Niagara Falls up north - but that feeds NYC and not OH,WV.

The steps to get to renewables in coal-country go through natural gas in the near term.

 

[jhm]

Agreed. And I think the odds that the next Gigafactory is also scaled to accommodate the production of pickups and/or semi trucks is pretty good. As such this location would have even more benefit since those items will likely include a LOT of steel.

Ah, yes, Tesla Semi, then later pickups. That would be perfect. Just the PR around building serious trucks in this part of the country would be awesome for Tesla.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Ah, yes, Tesla Semi, then later pickups. That would be perfect. Just the PR around building serious trucks in this part of the country would be awesome for Tesla.

The other benefit of this location is Pittsburgh, Google and Carnegie Mellon. Considering both tesla and google (waymo) have been burned by folks stealing trade secrets, could this imply a possible future link up?

 

[Waiting4M3]

...
I don't expect Model Y to be announced until 4Q17, but I expect that when it is announced, it won't be like other projects where there is years from announcement to a saleable product.

In that case I would like to see a GGF #3/#4 announcement in conjunction with a Model Y.

Fremont factory will be full up with MS3X production, with M3 backlog well into 2018 if not 2019. Adding MY in Fremont doesn't make more $ for Tesla, plus there will be FUD on how MY will disrupt M3 production. Instead if there is a new GGF (to be built or even an used factory like the ex-Saab factory in Sweden that someone is pitching), that Tesla can use to do prototype builds and volume production, then there is no risk on M3.

Once the new GGF and MY are up and running, if there is indeed enough parts and tooling overlap with M3, and if there is tax advantages, then Tesla can retrofit the Fremont factory to also build MY, and retrofit the new GGF to also build M3.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Man, this would be the ultimate political win for switching the last coal states to renewable energy. No more excuses on lost jobs and would take away the political lobbying/political control in Congress.

Also, (but this is probably far fetched) it would be very important culturally. Thousands of people working for renewable and driving Tesla semi and pickups in WV would send a powerful message to real, gas-loving, Ford-driving America.

 

[wanaxnow]

Tesla filed the 8-K regarding the CFO transition. According to the disclosure, Jason tendered his resignation on Feb 21, a day before the Q4 earnings release.
tsla-8k_20170221.htm

 

[Waiting4M3]

Tesla filed the 8-K regarding the CFO transition. According to the disclosure, Jason tendered his resignation on Feb 21, a day before the Q4 earnings release.
tsla-8k_20170221.htm

And the next day they hired Ahuja, and the board approved $15 million stock grant? Only if the M3 can come out that quickly

 

[EnzoXYZ]

If the US government doesn't work to
Improve Obamacare and act to fix existing problems, or simply chooses to neglect it, it will implode.

If you build a house and it turns out some parts of the house were built using poor quality parts or specific sections needs to be redone for structural reasons, and you choose to ignore the problems rather than trying to fix them, the house will eventually be too expensive to fix, and might have significant structural problems down the line that make it impossible to fix.

Your line of thinking is wrong. There is only one side to this point. Trump is not acting as a responsible stuart, and has basically made it clear he want to dismantle/break the United States as it exists today, and turn it into something else.

The GOP would gladly allow the country to burn, if they felt it would mean a loss of face and power for the demofrats. This talk is partisanshup is stupid. The GOP should focus on doing what's right, not what they promised or what their constituents think they want. Trump is a hypocrit and a liar. Bannon has been fairly direct about his vision of the future.

You haven't answered my question on why you cut out part of what he said. Just wondering if you actually listened to his speech or you just read off some headlines?

He clearly said he wouldn't let it fall apart and have Americans lose insurance.

 

[EinSV]

Ah, yes, Tesla Semi, then later pickups. That would be perfect. Just the PR around building serious trucks in this part of the country would be awesome for Tesla.

That seems like the most logical explanation to me. Great PR for Tesla and as @ggies07 mentioned would be great to provide Tesla/clean energy jobs in coal country.

As you said in your earlier post, very interesting that he chose to respond to this tweet. I don't think Elon tweets at random so I wouldn't be surprised if they were not actively considering WV, possibly for GF 5 with GF 3 and 4 in Europe and Asia.

 

[WarpedOne]

Another subject ... when will Tesla buy Panasonic?
Why should it? To protect their own bright future.

Second biggest existential risk for Tesla is Panasonic cutting their battery supply and tech. Without it, Tesla ceases to exist.
Why would Panasonic do such a thing? It would not as long as it stays sovereign AND a third party with more cash at hand than Tesla does not approach it. When some third party with enough cash in hands feels threatened enough, they can either offer Panasonic a better deal or go and buy it.

Tesla's sole defense against such a scenario is to be first Panasonic buyer. Current PCRFY market cap is around 25B, some 10times bigger than SCTY was.

What are your thoughts (not emotions)?

 

[neroden]

@neroden - sounds like Elon shares some of your frustration with lack of rail transport-- at least to the Fremont factory
from his Employee email letter:
"Also, hopefully our darn BART train station will open before all hell freezes over!"

Great to hear!

On that topic, BART has been woefully mismanaged in a number of ways, and is actually held up as a "worst case example" by urban rail proponents. :-(

 

[Waiting4M3]

Another subject ... when will Tesla buy Panasonic?
Why should it? To protect their own bright future.

Second biggest existential risk for Tesla is Panasonic cutting their battery supply and tech. Without it, Tesla ceases to exist.
Why would Panasonic do such a thing? It would not as long as it stays sovereign AND a third party with more cash at hand than Tesla does not approach it. When some third party with enough cash in hands feels threatened enough, they can either offer Panasonic a better deal or go and buy it.

Tesla's sole defense against such a scenario is to be first Panasonic buyer. Current PCRFY market cap is around 25B, some 10times bigger than SCTY was.

What are your thoughts (not emotions)?

There is a contract in place, no? You're talking about after the contract expires that Panasonic could walk away?

 

[neroden]

2017 is a continuation of this 180 to 280 range bound doldrums is what I see.

You might well be right. If so, I get a chance to load up on lots of cheap Tesla stock before next year, which would be nice, and the put sales business will make money again (it wasn't so great during the last month of low volatility). So that sounds good to me.

On the other hand, man, is the market unpredictable in the short term. Anything, and I mean anything, could cause a breakout upward or downward, whether it makes any sense or not.