2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[racer26]

For those that aren't as SpaceX obsessed: Static Fire for Echostar-23 scheduled for tonight (6hr window opens at 6pm EST). Falcon 9 core B1030 is vertical at LC-39A now. Assuming a nominal static fire, will go back horizontal for payload integration later this week on schedule for a launch around midnight Saturday night/Sunday morning.

 

[jhm]

Does anyone else have the concern that the market may be reacting to a potus non compos mentis scenario?

 

[The Blue Owl]

Does anyone else have the concern that the market may be reacting to a potus non compos mentis scenario?

Yes.

 

[jbcarioca]

Does anyone else have the concern that the market may be reacting to a potus non compos mentis scenario?

If only the House and Senate understood that we all might sleep better.

 

[Paracelsus]

Does anyone else have the concern that the market may be reacting to a potus non compos mentis scenario?

jhm - have you seen the Josh Fox documentary "Gasland" about the irreversible damage being caused by the unchecked exponential growth of natural gas development in the US since the early Bush administration days? Now that is 'non compos mentis'! I think of that movie when I read many of the posts on here and elsewhere discussing natural gas as a 'safer' transition fuel source, but the EPA was decoupled from natural gas development in the US by Cheney and has been in handcuffs ever since. The film is not recent, but unfortunately even more relevant now because the development continued its pace through the last administration as well. And watching it will change what you see out your window when you drive across the country. Probably the most astounding fact cited in the movie to me was that the harmful emissions from natural gas development in the Dallas/Ft Worth vicinity actually exceed that of all of the vehicles on the road in the same area. What comes out of the stack as exhaust at the natural gas power plants might seem like an improvement over other fossil fuels, but we don't hear the rest of the story regarding its impact from fracking to power generation. The time for the transition to a Musk vision was sometime before Cheney was in the White House and with enough time to de-commission Fukushima before the 2011 earthquake. And we need to view the replacement of natural gas peaker plants with battery storage as not only a sound financial investment, but as a critical environmental investment because of the huge environmental and health impacts caused by fracking, evaporation, pumping, transport, etc. The news I am concerned about is the news we continue to NOT hear anything about.

Here is the link to the Gasland documentary on YouTube. Your posts have always been insightful and helpful regarding the transition from oil to electricity, and I would really appreciate hearing your thoughts on this situation:

 

[vgrinshpun]

Does anyone else have the concern that the market may be reacting to a potus non compos mentis scenario?

Don't be silly - all market needs to hear is "tax cuts" and "deregulation" in any combination/context, even if it put together using magnetic poetry set (Market Edition), to have their animal spirits awaken.

By any chance, are you a Paul Krugman disciple?

<end sarcasm>

 

[vgrinshpun]

Utah's house of representatives pulls plug on extension of the tax credit for energy-efficient vehicles.

 

[racer26]

Does anyone else have the concern that the market may be reacting to a potus non compos mentis scenario?

Not merely concern - I consider it a foregone conclusion, the question is when.

POTUS is clearly non compos mentis, its a question of when the markets will realize that and react accordingly. So far, the markets seem to have been content to assume that he's going to be good for business with his lax tax policies and reductions of regulation. Which is mostly true, until you consider the part where alienating trading partners can quickly do more damage than those things do help.

I also think that Tesla is largely insulated from the worst of it. As an American manufacturer that is quickly bringing as much of its manufacturing and supply lines into America as possible, international trade restrictions and rules will have a comparatively smaller impact when compared to competitors. In addition to coming into a period of very rapid growth as we approach the end of the decade, with Model 3, Solar Roof and Powerwall this year, and Model Y, Minibus, Semi as we head toward 2020.

 

[scaesare]

, it can be envisioned that it could be much bigger project, and the author really meant 360MW/h for a day, which would be 8.64MWh project !

That would be 8.64Gwh, right?

The author, of course, had committed the usual butchering act with power/energy units.

 

[racer26]

Utah's house of representatives pulls plug on extension of the tax credit for energy-efficient vehicles.

Why do lawmakers continue to harp on EVs for being coal-powered?

Its easy to do the well-to-wheels analysis and prove that even in 99.7% coal-fired West Virginia, EV's are more efficient in terms of GHG/mi than all but the best hybrid cars - and even that will quickly change with the continued adoption of renewable electricity generation.

 

[vgrinshpun]

That would be 8.64Gwh, right?

Well, butchering math is lesser sin than butchering units.

 

[JRP3]

Not merely concern - I consider it a foregone conclusion, the question is when.

POTUS is clearly non compos mentis, its a question of when the markets will realize that and react accordingly.

Sometimes I get the feeling it's a bubble sitting on a house of cards. Though conditions are different I'm getting a bit of a 2006-2007 vibe.

 

[winfield100]

Not merely concern - I consider it a foregone conclusion, the question is when.

POTUS is clearly non compos mentis, its a question of when the markets will realize that and react accordingly.

probaly in the first 7 days in may
thinking about going to 50% cash

 

[vgrinshpun]

Does anyone else have the concern that the market may be reacting to a potus non compos mentis scenario?

I have posted this yesterday, but the link went broken for a while. It is now working again. Here is what former Reagan's director of Office of Management and Budget had to say about the train wreck we are heading into, including specific timing:

Stockman: Markets are 'misreading Washington'

 

[racer26]

probaly in the first 7 days in may
thinking about going to 50% cash

What happens then?

 

[cziegler]

Does anyone else have the concern that the market may be reacting to a potus non compos mentis scenario?

I don't know about the broader market, but I sure as heck have! As soon as the POTUS announced his first travel ban, in the most inflammatory manner possible, I felt his volatility was confirmed and I immediately executed a phased plan to increase my defensive posture.

Also key to my decision to become defensive: I have access to a fair amount of the stars of the financial world and none of them have optimistic long-term feelings about the U.S. economy - not one has a clue as to, 'how much debt is too much for the U.S.' nor have they crunched the scenario of the entitlement programs reducing payouts and/or bailing-out unfunded pensions. Now throw-in the fact, I see very little movement in addressing the 10,000 lb guerrilla, our national health care expenditure by actually helping consumers live a more healthy lifestyle and planning/documenting the details of their final phase in life (avoiding artificial life-support). I also see corporate tax cuts as long-term job reducer via the accelerating adoption of job displacing technology.

On a positive TSLA note: I used some of my gains to hire Solar City to install solar and Powerwalls on my rental properties - break even is 7-12 years! I stress, Even with Powerwalls! That's huge! installation is tentatively set for next month.

 

[W84M3]

Someone just posted 3 year obligation issued by MS

Link: Tesla note issued by Morgan Stanley. 11.5% per year for 3 years • r/teslamotors

 

[T3slaTulips]

Someone just posted 3 year obligation issued by MS

Link: Tesla note issued by Morgan Stanley. 11.5% per year for 3 years • r/teslamotors

Why is it a link to imgur? Is it for real?

Edit: found actual: http://www.morganstanley.com/structuredinvestments/docs/prospectus/prelim/ProspectusRed61768CFW2.pdf

 

[vgrinshpun]

Someone just posted 3 year obligation issued by MS

Link: Tesla note issued by Morgan Stanley. 11.5% per year for 3 years • r/teslamotors

Hmm, March 17 - pricing date, March 21 - issuance date. Is this an unsanctioned leak? Does it not screw up the issuance of the notes?

Note: I am ignorant on the subject, would appreciate a professional puting this in context...

 

[Lump]

http://www.morganstanley.com/structuredinvestments/docs/prospectus/prelim/ProspectusRed61768CFW2.pdf

Morgan Stanley Structured Investments