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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I don't do that. I have accurately predicted, several times, in advance, which of Musk's ideas had a decent chance of working and which ones wouldn't because he was overlooking something important. *Just so you know*. It's not that hard, if you dig into the details, to tell the difference between an idea and poorly-thought-out vapor.

(At least it's not that hard if you happen to have a background in essentially every subject, which I do.)

With the "Boring Company" Musk continues to look at the *wrong problems*. If he gets down to brass tacks and starts figuring out how to speed up muck removal or how to build a hybrid EPB/hard-rock tunneling machine, then I'll pay attention.

I'm going to point something out from before I actually started paying attention to Musk. He realized (correctly) that the reason there was so little space travel was that rocket launches were very expensive. He dug through masses and masses of detail to figure out the reasons why they were expensive and discovered that none of those reasons were fundamental (i.e. they were just habit). After he had done that, he founded SpaceX. He did something extremely similar with Tesla.

He has not done this with the Boring Company. It has been founded too early.

The problem I can't shake out of my head is that even if you have 4000 tunnels, eventually, all that traffic has to be merged back onto the surface. Aren't the merging points the real source of congestion? Ultimately, you might need a network of underground parking garages to avoid having to go back up to the street with your car.

Regardless, it's very little money for Musk. Making it all public now allows a lot of other smart people to help refine the solution.
 
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The ramp might be mechanically simpler, but logistically harder to implement. You now have to structurally support the tunnel all the way down the ramp (how many feet underground the tunnel is) and deal with the potential for traffic to be backed along the ramp until street level. No, the car lift is simpler.
Car lift is fine, but the platforms are ridiculous. They only way to do it would be to use the car for the propulsion. Mandatory autopilot (to avoid crashes) and inductive charging, or an electrified rail would make range a non-issue.

Laying down the infrastructure at the same time as the tunnel is being bored would keep costs fairly low. And in a tunnel you don't have the same issues with weather which makes things much more difficult above-ground.
 
If he sees it this way, he is *dead* wrong. There have been a lot of major innovations in the TBM industry within the last 10 years.

Where there have been no innovations -- where it's really ripe for a shakeup -- is the ground-level earthmoving industry. Bulldozers and backhoes and steamrollers and guys with shovels.

I don't know of course, but I think Elon's insight is that the problem with ground level stuff is the social friction. The incremental cost of adding 10% more highway capacity in LA might be 200% of the cost of the current system, given that you can't make more land. Your observation that bulldozing is inefficient illustrates that. There is no great point in being efficient building a road on zillion dollar land. The efficiency is mouse nuts in the overall budget. But if you go underground, it is just an engineering problem to solve.

Also, I bet he realizes that the problem with the hyperloop is that it is dumb to do it above ground.
 
I don't think you need tunnels in rural areas

There would be hyperloop tunnels between urban zones.

Also, and this is the other great profit of the idea of a interstate hyperloop: You can just build new towns along the route. You can have a bedroom community in Nebraska and work in Chicago. Dense, modern walkable towns with excellent infrastructure. Also, they might tend to vote blue. How many hyperloop colonies in flyover states would you need to flip a few... It's a simple walk from efficient tunnels to changing everything :)
 
Like Hyperloop, I think the Boring Company is actually meant more for the Martian Congressional Republic than Earth.

I suspect that much of Mars infrastructure construction will take place underground because of radiation concerns.

Totally agree. These loops and especially the tunnels are to be tested on earth for use on Mars.
 
Car lift is fine, but the platforms are ridiculous. They only way to do it would be to use the car for the propulsion. Mandatory autopilot (to avoid crashes) and inductive charging, or an electrified rail would make range a non-issue.

Laying down the infrastructure at the same time as the tunnel is being bored would keep costs fairly low. And in a tunnel you don't have the same issues with weather which makes things much more difficult above-ground.

why are the platforms ridiculous? platforms on an electrified rail seem pretty efficient and straightforward
 
Making tunneling cheaper and faster makes a lot of sense and there will always be a market for tunnels, arguable more so when they are cheaper to build ... the video does it's job, a hype job.
What if the skate for the car beguns just as a means to get onto the hyperloop train? It's just a way to get to an hyperloop port. The boring machine is mostly for the hyperloop.
 
WOW! So many had written full autonomy off for 2017!!!

This is the nail on the coffin for shorts. Model 3 demand will rise significantly after July reveal and into this demo.

Today is the beginning of the short squeeze.

There may be a squeeze, but it's possible that would only be for a minority of the short position. the rest of the short position may not be about a market bet on TSLA's stock price, but rather a several years long investment in slowing down the transition from fossil fuel/ICE profits. Secondaries have been a tool of Tesla's mission. An artificially undervalued stock price dulls that tool. If this is a substantial part of what's going on, I would be surprised if it doesn't continue for several years to come. The short position did drop in 2013 during the run from $40 to $180, but I don't believe it ever dropped much below 20%.
 
With the "Boring Company" Musk continues to look at the *wrong problems*. If he gets down to brass tacks and starts figuring out how to speed up muck removal or how to build a hybrid EPB/hard-rock tunneling machine, then I'll pay attention.

Regardless, it's very little money for Musk. Making it all public now allows a lot of other smart people to help refine the solution.

I think the point is he realizes he doesn't have the time to sit in a warehouse and pick apart the entire machine himself and figure out new ways to do it, but he does command the attention of an enormous number of smart people now that he certainly didn't before SpaceX, so he doesn't have to do all that initial work himself anymore.
Instead of a company paying their engineering team to "do R&D for a more efficient TBM so we can sell it for more and make more money", (sounds life-inspiring, right?) he's using social capital to say "Hey, this looks possible to improve, and if we can succeed 110%, this could be the epic result. Anyone interested?" Sounds insane, but SpaceX is ultimately the same deal, except he did that first "is it possible" part himself. Elon's reputation and ability to draw in brainpower is also incredibly strong support for the people actually working on these crazy ideas - imagine how long such a startup would last without the support of his reputation behind it. They'd be ridiculed to the ends of the earth** (no offense, neroden) and because of that, would have severe problems attracting talent even if the first handful of people did make some progress. Then some TBM company would come along, buy them out, consume whatever they designed, and that would be the end.

Much easier to get a proverbial Tom Mueller or JB Straubel to commit to the project when there's a company they work for, rather than just some loose request to "tear that thing over there down and figure out how to make a better one".

Car lift is fine, but the platforms are ridiculous. They only way to do it would be to use the car for the propulsion. Mandatory autopilot (to avoid crashes) and inductive charging, or an electrified rail would make range a non-issue.

Laying down the infrastructure at the same time as the tunnel is being bored would keep costs fairly low. And in a tunnel you don't have the same issues with weather which makes things much more difficult above-ground.

Platforms eliminate requirements for special/validated cars, special hardware for induction charging/electrified rails, etc. Makes the tunnels more practical for "today's world", and more likely to attract funding than a tunnel that requires only Tesla cars or Tesla technology.

Tunnels are far lower maintenance than roads anywhere that has actual weather. Wisconsin alone spends on average $100m/yr just to plow and salt roads in winter, and that ignores the yearly cost of damage to roads and highways from freezing and thawing and salt, and the accidents & fatalities from poor road conditions, and the economic cost of congestion from those accidents or even from just the weather itself.

I'll admit, I didn't put much effort into research on this or the accuracy of the data, but this page gives a good outline. The Pothole Facts
Of approximately 33,000 traffic fatalities each year, one-third involve poor road conditions.


This source cites a range of ~$60m-300m per mile for existing tunnels.
'Typical Interstate System Cost per Mile', Document Route Symbol HNG-13 (March 21, 1997) gives "The cost per rural mile is $9.84 million and the cost per urban mile is $44.13 million."
That tells me if they can figure out how to achieve a 5-10x cost reduction, it would be competitive with current highway costs, while ignoring all the additional benefits of tunnels like maintenance/repair/operational costs, real estate availability and cost, safety, economic savings/gain from significantly reduced travel times and ease of movement of people and goods...


** I was ridiculed by friends/family when I proposed making tunnels between buildings at home until I bought a backhoe and actually started digging. Now people tell me it's an awesome idea. Go figure.
 
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why are the platforms ridiculous? platforms on an electrified rail seem pretty efficient and straightforward

And allow you to travel a long distance without using any of your vehicle's battery capacity.

With the boring electric platforms, I think Musk has figured out how to electrify a whole fleet of old gasmobiles.

Excellent point as well.
 
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