Alright, for all you coders and traders (notice the logic function AND) here's an interesting website I stumbled upon in my reading:
Quantopian
You can make your own algo trading bot!
Quantopian
You can make your own algo trading bot!
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Mike Smith
Active Member
Tesla factory workers reveal pain, injury and stress: 'Everything feels like the future but us'
"Exclusive: CEO Elon Musk defends workplace, saying ‘[we are not] just greedy capitalists who skimp on safety’ – and declares his $50bn company overvalued"
The interview they're repeatedly sourcing in the article isn't an 'exclusive', it's actually from 2013. Tesla should sue The Guardian for claiming Elon just said the company is currently over-valued (specifying the company as being worth $50B confirms they're claiming he said it recently).
"Exclusive: CEO Elon Musk defends workplace, saying ‘[we are not] just greedy capitalists who skimp on safety’ – and declares his $50bn company overvalued"
The interview they're repeatedly sourcing in the article isn't an 'exclusive', it's actually from 2013. Tesla should sue The Guardian for claiming Elon just said the company is currently over-valued (specifying the company as being worth $50B confirms they're claiming he said it recently).
Even Elon Musk Has A Hard Time With Tesla's High Valuation: 'It's More Than We Have Any Right To Deserve'
wtf. Quoting that interview in the context of the article from today has to be illegal or a breach of some rule?
Mike Smith
Active Member
"Musk also said that Tesla should not be compared to major US carmakers and that its market capitalization, now more than $50bn, is unwarranted. “I do believe this market cap is higher than we have any right to deserve,” he said, pointing out his company produces just 1% of GM’s total output."
This is an attempt to hurt Tesla's stock price in my opinion. Tesla should protect their investors and sue.
They should sue this author. She should be fired lol.
But the real player behind all this bs is the UAW and Tesla knows this :
Creating the Safest Car Factory in the World
Creating the Safest Car Factory in the World
sahanim
Member
From the Wikipedia:
I've read quite a few articles with a pronounced anti-Tesla bias in the Guardian over time. My impression was that perhaps they are so absorbed with the notion of their "independence" that facts and journalistic integrity do not matter anymore, as long as they appear to be anti-[insert almost anything here], and therefore, "independent". I called it to myself a "dogma of independence". This article, however, is beyond any explanation, it just plainly falsifies the record.
I've read quite a few articles with a pronounced anti-Tesla bias in the Guardian over time. My impression was that perhaps they are so absorbed with the notion of their "independence" that facts and journalistic integrity do not matter anymore, as long as they appear to be anti-[insert almost anything here], and therefore, "independent". I called it to myself a "dogma of independence". This article, however, is beyond any explanation, it just plainly falsifies the record.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I've been doing a lot of research/reading/educating myself over the last 48 hours on possible scenarios specifically on the Trump issue.
Keep in mind that anything can happen. There's an increased level of macro/political risk which may coincide with Model 3 issues etc.
Having said that, even though Tesla's valuation metrics may come down over the next 12-24 months, I do not currently think a substantial decline in stock price (i.e. below $250) is highly likely. My reasoning is:
1. Tesla will grow very substantially in the next 18 months from $10 billion run-rate revenues currently to more than $30+ billion in 2018. There has never been a company that grew more quickly after the $10 billion revenue mark. Especially at times of turbulence, investors may see Tesla as one of the few options with an improving future and buy the dips throughout a recession (see Apple in 4Q08/1Q09).
2. I expect oil prices to rise throughout 2H17/1H18, which can act as a positive catalyst for Tesla as it would increase demand for all-electric vehicles. As consumer product/service companies, Apple/Facebook/Google/Amazon would have been hurt by a surge in oil prices, which tend to show up at late-expansion stage of economic cycles. I believe this is a very important distinction that is not discussed often enough by Tesla analysts and investors.
3. Tesla runs its balance sheet conservatively: the company uses equity secondaries as opposed to issuing debt, VIE debt non-recourse and backed by solar assets, recourse debt is mostly low-rate convertible and zero-coupon meaning most of the interest expense is non-cash amortization, its upcoming product has a long waiting list, and so on.
4. The Fed is data-dependent, and it may push out what is already a gradual pace of interest rate raises.
5. Domestic political turmoil is usually coupled with significant depreciation in that country's currency, which would be positive for Tesla as the vast majority of its costs are denominated in USD, and half (and increasing) of its revenues is denominated in other currencies (mainly EUR and CNY).
6. Nothing may come of the current political turmoil.
In summary, the upside in the company is signifiant, and the downside seems limited if the Model 3 ramp-up moves along smoothly. I agree that some turbulence seems to be ahead, so keeping leverage conservative may be wise. Staying power is paramount.
Keep in mind that anything can happen. There's an increased level of macro/political risk which may coincide with Model 3 issues etc.
Having said that, even though Tesla's valuation metrics may come down over the next 12-24 months, I do not currently think a substantial decline in stock price (i.e. below $250) is highly likely. My reasoning is:
1. Tesla will grow very substantially in the next 18 months from $10 billion run-rate revenues currently to more than $30+ billion in 2018. There has never been a company that grew more quickly after the $10 billion revenue mark. Especially at times of turbulence, investors may see Tesla as one of the few options with an improving future and buy the dips throughout a recession (see Apple in 4Q08/1Q09).
2. I expect oil prices to rise throughout 2H17/1H18, which can act as a positive catalyst for Tesla as it would increase demand for all-electric vehicles. As consumer product/service companies, Apple/Facebook/Google/Amazon would have been hurt by a surge in oil prices, which tend to show up at late-expansion stage of economic cycles. I believe this is a very important distinction that is not discussed often enough by Tesla analysts and investors.
3. Tesla runs its balance sheet conservatively: the company uses equity secondaries as opposed to issuing debt, VIE debt non-recourse and backed by solar assets, recourse debt is mostly low-rate convertible and zero-coupon meaning most of the interest expense is non-cash amortization, its upcoming product has a long waiting list, and so on.
4. The Fed is data-dependent, and it may push out what is already a gradual pace of interest rate raises.
5. Domestic political turmoil is usually coupled with significant depreciation in that country's currency, which would be positive for Tesla as the vast majority of its costs are denominated in USD, and half (and increasing) of its revenues is denominated in other currencies (mainly EUR and CNY).
6. Nothing may come of the current political turmoil.
In summary, the upside in the company is signifiant, and the downside seems limited if the Model 3 ramp-up moves along smoothly. I agree that some turbulence seems to be ahead, so keeping leverage conservative may be wise. Staying power is paramount.
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Mercedes-Benz and Vivint Solar partner to compete with Tesla in home energy
man... this is getting humorous to watch... you can compare the numbers and make your declarations that "Tesla IS THE ONLY ONE!"...
but they're not. things missing from the current valuation:
a) competition
b) risk
go ahead and reinforce it with all your "disagrees" and replies that "Mercedez is a dinosaur"... and "there will be no companies other than Tesla in 5 years!"
it's just getting funny at this point.
man... this is getting humorous to watch... you can compare the numbers and make your declarations that "Tesla IS THE ONLY ONE!"...
but they're not. things missing from the current valuation:
a) competition
b) risk
go ahead and reinforce it with all your "disagrees" and replies that "Mercedez is a dinosaur"... and "there will be no companies other than Tesla in 5 years!"
it's just getting funny at this point.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Mercedes-Benz and Vivint Solar partner to compete with Tesla in home energy
"Mercedes-Benz Energy will combine its 2.5 kWh energy storage batteries with a Vivint's rooftop to make a combined product for homeowners."
Sounds like Mercedes is trying to patch together what Tesla had three years ago...
"Mercedes-Benz Energy will combine its 2.5 kWh energy storage batteries with a Vivint's rooftop to make a combined product for homeowners."
Sounds like Mercedes is trying to patch together what Tesla had three years ago...
This is funny. So now it's them and BMW. How about they focus on ramping up their battery production and designing EVs from the ground up. Looks more like they can't handle the competition Tesla is providing. Sure sure, go ahead, make those "home energy" products....before long they won't be a car company any more. hahaha.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I have never heard it argued that Tesla would take over everything in 5 years.
It's physically impossible, and the collapse of other car companies would damage the economy badly by putting huge amounts of people out of work in a short time span. Components suppliers would collapse too. This is not a good thing.
Please leave the straw man hyperbole aside. It is not helpful.
Anticitizen... please look at the other reply to my post:
"before long they won't be a car company any more. hahaha."
this kind of rhetoric is usually the end point during any valuation discussion.... they'll all be gone and Tesla will have replaced them... "ha ha ha".
yes... this whole thing will be reflected on as a silly joke.
You *are* out of your mind. Here is how competition stacks up: Tesla offers 26% lower price for the battery system that has 22.67% higher power rating, 66.25% higher gravimetric and 174.62% higher volumetric energy density. Having 26% lower price, Tesla offering also includes temperature control allowing installation inside/outside anywhere in the world while MB does not and is suitable for indoor installation only.
MB Specs
Tesla Specs
Competition!!! It is not just funny, it is ludicrously so.
It is as much competition as Mercedes AA class to Tesla Model S:
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I am concerned about the Guardian article. I Googled some of the key comments and I used quotes to ensure that the exact phrase was matched. There were no other articles found when searching for:
Musk "We’re a money losing company"
Musk "I do believe this market cap is higher than we have any right to deserve"
It seems that these might actually be new comments after all, although possibly taken out of context - i.e. I expect that he would have gone on to justify the valuation in terms of future growth.
Musk "We’re a money losing company"
Musk "I do believe this market cap is higher than we have any right to deserve"
It seems that these might actually be new comments after all, although possibly taken out of context - i.e. I expect that he would have gone on to justify the valuation in terms of future growth.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Ok, that was posted while I was writing my own reply.
Valuation discussions are fairly pointless, because nobody knows what will ultimately happen. I don't have any faith in much of the napkin math that either bulls or bears produce, because it's usually wrong.
I didn't see 7 MWh for the Inland Empire Utilities Agency Advanced Microgrid Solutions or 8.4 MWh for Jackson Family Winery There's a bunch of Tesla batteries plugged into this winery
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