2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[DurandalAI]

I disapprove of wasting money on stupid *sugar* in a way which prevents people from spending money on things which would actually help.

While I'm sure it will morph over time -- since Elon is very good at changing course fast -- right now, Hyperloop consists of a bunch of proposals which are *less* efficient and *more* expensive than conventional high-speed rail and therefore stupid. And they aren't just worse due to lack of economies of scale, they are *inherently* worse.

This *vaporware* is basically being used as an excuse to not fund high speed rail.

Meanwhile, while Musk is correct that we can't seem to build rail at reasonable prices in the US, he hasn't bothered to figure out why. A large part of it is a construction mafia, basically. Another part is extremely expensive *surface construction* (for tunnel access points, etc.) -- the tunnel drilling is by far the most efficient part of the process. He's haring off in the wrong direction, and I hate to see this waste of effort.

Automated electric bulldozers would be a much more effective and useful dream.

Easement rights and eminent domain are big battles for infrastructure development of roads, etc. There's little protest to be made about a tunnel that's so far underground your home that it doesn't impact your home/life versus a road/railway that eats up a 30 foot wide swath of your land while producing large amounts of sound. I think that's his reasoning on it. If you can't see/hear/smell it, it's hard to have a NIMBY protest against such a project. Especially so in areas where population density would make such above-ground projects so difficult.

Underground transport is also less vulnerable to high speed winds, rain, snow, idiots who want to put things on the rails, etc... I agree the cost is higher, but I think there would be less red tape associated with it, thus making it more successful.

 

[DurandalAI]

Wow. Why don´t you think about people in cars running over pedestrians on the other hand, like in the Berlin terror attack? Or people driving drunk? Think that way more people would be saved if cars would refuse to run over pedestrians than drivers would be saved from rioting pedestrians. Unless you think the good people always sit inside the car?

That's quite a valid flip-side argument, and I see your point.

However, as a whole, I don't want my car dictating what I can/cannot do. Full stop.

Drunk drivers if not previously convicted should hopefully choose to enable FSD instead of manual driving. I know if I was drunk, and one could legally be in a vehicle with FSD, I would choose that as a viable option. The Berlin terror attack, well, they're going to find a way to kill no matter what you make legal/illegal. Bombs/guns/explosives/cars/machetes/etc. It's not a TOOL problem, it's a PEOPLE (well, philosophical or psychotic) problem.

As is, AEB will stop for objects in the road, unless you smash down the "go" pedal. I'm OK with that functionality.

Long term, I fully expect manual driving to be outlawed in many countries in the next 20 years, so the point will be moot by then.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I wonder how much the Boring Company is about Mars and mining as it is about transportation on Earth.

Elon did talk about this aspect of the boring company in the latest ISS r&d interview. Toward the end.

 

[Intl Professor]

Comparing NY-DC hyperloop to Trumps US-Mexican border wall is beyond retarded. It is not rational debate or discussion. It is hyperbole to the extreme.

But the hyperloop, like the border wall, will have translucent solar panels.

 

[Intl Professor]

Not that he'll be in that position much longer.

Don't hold your breath; count on a self-pardon if necessary.

 

[winfield100]

I have a mild fear of cars that refuse to run over pedestrians, only due to if there is absolutely no risk to pedestrians, then they'll start playing in the streets or carjack. It all depends on where you are in the world, but in some locations, it's a concern. Even where I am, in certain parts of town, I wouldn't dare drive if I couldn't plow through cars/people if an emergency situation erupted. Yes, outlier situations here, but go look up some videos of people in cars trying to escape rioters, like in the LA riots.

im more thinking about the car that escaped the volcanic explosion of Mt Saint Helens going 100+mph, flat out in terror, (160kph) that passed the car going 70+mph (115kph), that if i remember correctly, did'nt
"i'm sorry dave, you are exceeding the speed limits, and should have left earlier"
"stupid robot", "stupid human, I HAVE a backup stored on the cloud, too bad you don't, can i sell you a neural mesh? you would only lose 2-3 weeks of memory as i have been secretly backing you up, please reply in 1/2 second, the volcanic explosion ash cloud is 200 meters and closing, have a nice day and you cannot break the speed limit"

 

[Reciprocity]

Was charging at the service center today and saw at least one of each S/X P100D loaners. I assume they where loaner/demo cars because they had the dealer plates on them. New cars usually have no plates or temp plates in my area. A few weeks ago they did not have any yet and had received their first major shipment of X's for display and loaners. They were still using CPO cars for loaners a few weeks ago. I go back Aug.31st and I am going to ask for a P100D loaner and see what I get.

 

[JBRR]

Inside Elon Musk's disruption factory

 

[dc_h]

It's hyperbole, but they *are* both very poorly-thought-out ideas. So you can expect money spent on them AT THIS TIME, before they're fully baked ideas, to be wasted.

NY to DC is the busiest mid-distance corridor in the US. If (huge if) he can figure out how to do this at a sustainable cost, it would be great. Faster than a plan without 2 hours of airport security or a 3 hour Amtrak ride. It turns DC into a suburb of NY.
For approvals, if you follow rail routes or interstate highways, you already have federal oversight. How much can keep most of this to the interstate, your local approvals would be greatly reduced.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Hi everyone. It's been a while since I posted. I've been waiting for a good opportunity to say something that isn't already being said, and I think today might be that day.

1) Spicer Resigned today.
2) People have forgotten Trump is still facing 100+ lawsuits.
3) If Trump fires or attempts to fire Muller it will basically be the definition of obstruction of justice. News sources are stating he is attempting to "discredit" Muller. If Trump was any other person, it would be an open and shut case. His conduct is basically the basically the definition of retaliation and obstruction of Justice. It is irrelevant if Trump is innocent or guilty of the things he is being accused of.

4) I think the stock market is continuing to rally because of Elon Musk. Elon removed himself from the political aspect of Trump's circle. Is it possible for Trump to grant special approval to Elon to build a hyperloop from D.C. to New York in a way that would bypass the need for certain state procedures to be met?

In theory, if it is possible and is accomplished in 1-2 years, it would mean a lot for almost every state in the USA. I suppose if China can build a bridge in a week, Elon might be able to build a Hyper-loop in 1-2 years?

Trump would without question try to take credit for the Hyperloop, if the Hyperloop happens in 1-2 years because of some special authority, and the Hyperloop works as envisioned, even if he had 0 involvement in the project.

I think Trump is holding the US Economy hostage. Stocks are at historic extremes and are moving based on arbitrary promises, FOMO, and possibly as a bet that the alternative to Trump being successful is too horrible to imagine and is therefore impossible.

I love Tesla. I was one of the first people in the world to say Tesla was worth at least $300. I was also one of the first people to say I thought Tesla would eventually become a major component of Grid Infrusctucture.

HOWEVER, I am extremely concerned about how Trumps Tweets have taken made "alternative facts" carry more weight than facts based in reality, when it comes to what's driving the overall market.

I also think Trump might be doing some behind the scenes work to hold the US economy hostage as leverage to make it difficult for anyone to call for his impeachment.

I'd love to hear what everyone thinks.



.

 

[Reciprocity]

Inside Elon Musk's disruption factory

That is an absolutely awesome read. Love this line:

"At seven stories tall, it is the largest stamping press in North America; it took 50 trucks and 30 rail cars to transport it from Detroit to Fremont. Tesla bought the $50 million machine for $6 million in an example of what vice president of manufacturing Gilbert Passin calls "happily scavenging" from struggling companies."

Also very interesting and if you look at the picture associated with the text you can see maybe why they are building that giant tower:

"To maximise efficiency, the stamping centre produces a week's worth of each part before retooling to make another piece. These side-bodies will remain in storage before being brought to the factory's body centre, where they will be used in the assembly of the unibody chassis."

The stamping press is most efficient when you can make crap load of one part and store them. But storage space is hard to find in Fremont. They will probably stamp enough of an individual part for 20,000 model 3s at a time and store them before changing the tool to stamp 20k more of the next part. Now the tower of doom makes sense as you would need a fast and efficient way to get parts in and out and that system seemed like it could be fully automated. The other thing I am noticing that I knew but never thought about. We where looking at palatalizing robots at my previous company and I was shocked because you need 25' of clearance around them to be safe. Robots dont get tired and dont need breaks but they take up a lot more room then humans. Usually space is cheaper then humans, but they are challenged in Fremont. This is another reason to get as many of the parts out of the main factory and into the pallet tower and just pull them out precisely when you need them. Pretty amazing stuff.

 

[mongo]

..snip...

The stamping press is most efficient when you can make crap load of one part and store them. But storage space is hard to find in Fremont. They will probably stamp enough of an individual part for 20,000 model 3s at a time and store them before changing the tool to stamp 20k more of the next part. Now the tower of doom makes sense as you would need a fast and efficient way to get parts in and out and that system seemed like it could be fully automated.

...snip...

Agreed, stamped pieces take way more space than a roll of aluminum. Lines up with piece production vs consumption rate.

 

[Reciprocity]

Agreed, stamped pieces take way more space than a roll of aluminum. Lines up with piece production vs consumption rate.

I guess you forgot to read why they stamp many pieces at a time. Changing tools out is what makes it most inefficient, so the more parts you can stamp and store, the less change over on the tools. If you have 100 stamped parts and you do 100 at a time, you gotta change the tool out 10x more often then if you did 1000 at a time it 100x more often then if you did 10,000 at a time.

Edit: and the aluminum rolls would come in by train just in time, so little storage required.

 

[schonelucht]

Comparing NY-DC hyperloop to Trumps US-Mexican border wall is beyond retarded. It is not rational debate or discussion. It is hyperbole to the extreme.

Careful readers, like @EinSV below, noted that I didn't compare both project, but rather the retoric used by the wall guy and Elon in that particular tweet. For the record : I have no real opinion on Hyperloop and Boring either way. See below why.

The tweets are not designed to prevent the airing of any legitimate concerns (which would be impossible), but to build public support to help reduce the chances of unnecessary delays and roadblocks.

There is literally zero information at all available to the public about this proposal. Not about where the entry and exit points are, not the exact trajectory, not how deep it will be, not who (or if any) independent verification has been done on the engineering wrt to safety for surface side construction, not if the project is seeking public money, etc.. at all. Nothing at all. Yet, Elon is touting one supposed feature no one could be against (29 minutes DC-NYC). It's a text book example of how to make any real debate in the public opinion impossible : keep information that would allow us to form an independent opinion on the merits and dangers secret but at the same time call for big supposed advantages that appeal to emotions. For another example of this : Brexit where none of the brexiteers plans were laid out but the headline 600 million pound to the NHS every week was widely distributed. What happened was that the public at large wasn't debating the merits of the real proposals.

 

[mongo]

I guess you forgot to read why they stamp many pieces at a time. Changing tools out is what makes it most inefficient, so the more parts you can stamp and store, the less change over on the tools. If you have 100 stamped parts and you do 100 at a time, you gotta change the tool out 10x more often then if you did 1000 at a time it 100x more often then if you did 10,000 at a time.

Huh? I was saying they can produce stamped parts faster than they use them, so a storage area to buffer makes sense. With extra words: Having a huge buffer area lines up with producing stamped parts at a great multiple of the rate at which cars are produced.
Especially with needing to run different die sets to get a car's worth of parts and a projected 5k + cars a week. .

 

[schonelucht]

Nico Rosberg on Twitter

Anyone want to guess what Nico Rosberg, F1 2016 champion had to do at Tesla?

It's advertising. You guys really think someone like Rosberg would make a tweet that highlights Tesla this way by accident or just because he is happy about some meetings? Either you guys are totally clueless about the through-and-through commercial side of the F1 spectacle or hopelessly naive.

 

[D-egg-O]

It's advertising. You guys really think someone like Rosberg would make a tweet that highlights Tesla this way by accident or just because he is happy about some meetings? Either you guys are totally clueless about the through-and-through commercial side of the F1 spectacle or hopelessly naive.

So you think Liberty is somehow trying to associate F1's brand to Tesla's brand with a selfie from a retired driver (granted he's last year's champion)?

 

[Reciprocity]

Huh? I was saying they can produce stamped parts faster than they use them, so a storage area to buffer makes sense. With extra words: Having a huge buffer area lines up with producing stamped parts at a great multiple of the rate at which cars are produced.
Especially with needing to run different die sets to get a car's worth of parts and a projected 5k + cars a week. .

Sorry, I thought you where saying that they wouldnt do that because the rolls take up less space. My bad.

 

[schonelucht]

So you think Liberty is somehow trying to associate F1's brand to Tesla's brand with a selfie from a retired driver (granted he's last year's champion)?

Nah, Tesla likely just paid Nico to come down. Give some inspirational speech, do a meet&greet with hardworking staff, possibly talk to some engineers about what makes great driving and then take a selfie and publish it.

 

[Waiting4M3]

But the hyperloop, like the border wall, will have translucent solar panels.

like an underground solar panel powered parking meter
A solar powered parking meter in an underground garage. • r/CrappyDesign