2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[schonelucht]

(1) Someone in the federal government said "thumbs up."

For all we know, it could be the Eritrean government that gave a thumbs up to Elon's plan for a DC-NY tunnel.

(2) I double dare any local politician in NYC or DC (or any stop in-between) to explain to their constituents why they are standing in the way of a 29 minute trip from NYC to DC.

Yeah this. The problem with that kind of retoric (and it is very common these days), is that it is designed to prevent any rational debate on the possible downsides to the proposal. It is meant to create a 'fait accompli' in the public opinion's mind without needing or even allowing a judgement on the actual merits and pitfalls or even a clear description of what the proposal exactly is. Same tactic used by a certain guy wanting to build a wall. Stay vague of the details, make a one sided emotional appeal and then present it like there is broad agreement. Rinse repeat untill no congressman is willing anymore to face his base anymore, rolls over and votes to allocate a few billions to a project.

 

[RobStark]

Rinse repeat untill no congressman is willing anymore to face his base anymore, rolls over and votes to allocate a few billions to a project.

This isn't even close to what is happening. Trump can't even unite Republicans behind the wall. He was trying to use general funds from border protection and enforcement to partially build the wall. Now he has his allies in Congress trying to get funding for 28 miles of wall. The vote is scheduled for next week.The border is 1989 miles long.

Comparing NY-DC hyperloop to Trumps US-Mexican border wall is beyond retarded. It is not rational debate or discussion. It is hyperbole to the extreme.

 

[Sancho]

Interestingly, yesterday's tweet about the NY/DC hyperloop was a major shift in Musk's tone from the flippant tweets of the past. Instead, it was classic Musk evangelical earnestness and hyper optimism that we are so used to seeing from him for all things Tesla related.

Which now makes me wonder, was the flippancy of Musk's past tweets, including the ironic name Boring Company, really reflective of Musk's semi-serious intentions, or a very calculated way for Musk to gradually disclose his very serious intentions?

What if Musk has been working seriously on this project for awhile and has worked out enough of the engineering and financial hurdles to make this a very serious endeavor. But before he's ready to seriously announce it, he needs to dig some tunnels and have some preliminary discusssions with govt officials, and he knows he can't possibly do that in complete stealth. But he also knows that if he discloses such ambitious intentions seriously at such an early stage, he risks the kind of ridicule he had to endure in the early days of Tesla, multiplied many times over.

So he plays it very lighthearted, ambiguous,and it all seems off the cuff and the distracted plaything of a visionary. Until he has enough pieces in place to shift to serious evangelizing.

Perhaps all his initial cheekiness has been very calculatingly clever introductory PR?

 

[22522]

Nico Rosberg on Twitter

Anyone want to guess what Nico Rosberg, F1 2016 champion had to do at Tesla?

Been trying to get someone at Tesla to train autopilot to run the Tail of the Dragon well...

Maybe Nico would do it?

He would be a decent AI reference behavior. Polite, obedient, does not want to spend his entire life driving in circles.

 

[EinSV]

For all we know, it could be the Eritrean government that gave a thumbs up to Elon's plan for a DC-NY tunnel.

Um, don't think so.

Yeah this. The problem with that kind of retoric (and it is very common these days), is that it is designed to prevent any rational debate on the possible downsides to the proposal. It is meant to create a 'fait accompli' in the public opinion's mind without needing or even allowing a judgement on the actual merits and pitfalls or even a clear description of what the proposal exactly is. Same tactic used by a certain guy wanting to build a wall. Stay vague of the details, make a one sided emotional appeal and then present it like there is broad agreement. Rinse repeat untill no congressman is willing anymore to face his base anymore, rolls over and votes to allocate a few billions to a project.

I am surprised you stooped to a polemic like this (Elon is like ... Trump). This is a classic logical fallacy (ad hominem attack). It is also totally off base IMO. Elon is talking about doing something extremely constructive with massive public benefit in terms of time savings, convenience and environmental benefits. Not building a pointless wall.

Elon (and anyone with a lick of common sense) realizes that one of the biggest hurdles for a large project that crosses many jurisdictions is bureaucratic red tape. All you have to do is look at the article that mentions it taking 100 years to complete 2 miles of subway tunnels in NYC. The tweets are not designed to prevent the airing of any legitimate concerns (which would be impossible), but to build public support to help reduce the chances of unnecessary delays and roadblocks. Also, we are talking about building a tunnel -- which seems about as benign as you come as far as large projects go.

I personally love that Elon has already pulled off enough "impossible" things with Tesla and SpaceX that with a handful of tweets he can make the "impossible" seem not only possible but likely.

 

[CaptainKirk]

Anyone else notice more YouTube videos being uploaded by Tesla these days?

 

[myusername]

Ever notice how for some reason Elon's grand visions for humanity start firing up right before TSLA earnings? Looks like they're booking speaking events right before earnings once a quarter. Then Elon gets his stage... media goes nuts with ridiculous headlines... and people post on this board thanking Elon for saving the world.

This is a propaganda machine.


2 weeks before 4Q16 - 02/23/17:

02/13/17: Elon Musk at the World Government Summit 2017 in Dubai. Conversation with Mohammad AlGergawi
02/13/17: Elon Musk doubles down on universal basic income: 'It's going to be necessary'
02/13/17: Elon Musk: Humans must merge with machines or become irrelevant in AI age
02/19/17: Elon Musk Has a New Timeline for Humans Living on Mars


1 week before 1Q17 - 05/03/17:

04/28/17: TED Talk
04/28/17: Elon Musk | Speaker | TED.com
04/28/17: What will the future look like? Elon Musk speaks at TED2017


2 week before 2Q17 - 08/03/17:

07/17/17: Governor's Meeting
07/17/17: Elon Musk Warns Governors: Artificial Intelligence Poses 'Existential Risk'
07/20/17: Elon Musk says he has ‘verbal’ okay to build multi-state underground Hyperloop

 

[elasalle]

Ever notice how for some reason Elon's grand visions for humanity start firing up right before TSLA earnings? Looks like they're booking speaking events right before earnings once a quarter. Then Elon gets his stage... media goes nuts with ridiculous headlines... and people post on this board thanking Elon for saving the world.

This is a propaganda machine.


2 weeks before 4Q16 - 02/23/17:

02/13/17: Elon Musk at the World Government Summit 2017 in Dubai. Conversation with Mohammad AlGergawi
02/13/17: Elon Musk doubles down on universal basic income: 'It's going to be necessary'
02/13/17: Elon Musk: Humans must merge with machines or become irrelevant in AI age
02/19/17: Elon Musk Has a New Timeline for Humans Living on Mars


1 week before 1Q17 - 05/03/17:

04/28/17: TED Talk
04/28/17: Elon Musk | Speaker | TED.com
04/28/17: What will the future look like? Elon Musk speaks at TED2017


2 week before 2Q17 - 08/03/17:

07/17/17: Governor's Meeting
07/17/17: Elon Musk Warns Governors: Artificial Intelligence Poses 'Existential Risk'
07/20/17: Elon Musk says he has ‘verbal’ okay to build multi-state underground Hyperloop

How about the FUD, is it constant day in day out, OR is it also at specific dates like Earnings or product releases? Do you have any data for that.

 

[TradingInvest]

For all we know, it could be the Eritrean government that gave a thumbs up to Elon's plan for a DC-NY tunnel.

It's obvious the verbal approval for the underground hyperloop is from the president. No one else is in the position to give this kind of verbal approval.

 

[kenliles]

It's obvious the verbal approval for the underground hyperloop is from the president. No one else is in the position to give this kind of verbal approval.

I think that was the WH to Kremlin route -

 

[SBenson]

Maybe auto industry watchers like @anticitizen13.7 can chime in.

What went wrong here?

Chevy Bolt EV inventories are piling up, GM temporarily shuts down factory

An interesting update

Chevrolet Bolt Production To Double After Extended Factory Shutdown?

 

[TradingInvest]

Ever notice how for some reason Elon's grand visions for humanity start firing up right before TSLA earnings? Looks like they're booking speaking events right before earnings once a quarter. Then Elon gets his stage... media goes nuts with ridiculous headlines... and people post on this board thanking Elon for saving the world.
This is a propaganda machine.

Elon is a machine that gets things done (with the support of his great teams).

Tesla shorts/paid bashers are propaganda machines. They grab every straws, use lies to tarnish Elon Musk's reputation.

The way you pick up a few evens before each QR is an example how you guys manipulate the truth.

Meetings, speeches, interviews, new products, new software releases, even new companies, happen all the time. In your eyes, everything is an effort to pushup the stock. Loser!

 

[Reciprocity]

Are we really debating another one of Elon's pie in the sky, outlandish projections. Do we really feel like he is doing damage to his brand or Tesla? Seriously, it is entertaining, but in the greater scheme of things, it really does not matter. What does matter is the results. Half the stuff Elon says will never happen or will be very late based on originally projections, but the stuff that does get done is pretty ridiculous. I think part of what makes it even possible is that Elon has a way to make people believe it is possible. You really cant do anything alone and Elon's main job is to inspire people. People who work for him, people who invest in him, people in government, citizens who can write letters or spread the word on social media. I have always said that Elon's greatest tool is not is brain or intelligence, though he is very smart, it's his charisma and drive as a leader and as inspirational figure. Does he say some crazy stuff, of course. Am I going to bet against a single one, nope, not me. I have zero issue with an attempt to build Hyperloop tunnels everywhere. Cant be any worse of a boondoggle then high speed maglev trains. Remember this guy made a joke about a new Boring company nary a few months ago and now he has a boring machine and a tunnel in L.A. This is not a guy to dismiss. Is launching, landing and reusing rockets any more complicated then digging tunnels 3-4-10 times faster? Is it anymore complicated then building tubes and removing the air while not harming the passengers? To me its all impossible, but what do I know.

I wish I had a way to contribute, but sadly the only way I have to contribute is buy the stock and the products and spread the word. I am going to do my part and hope for the best.

 

[kenliles]

 

[ggr]

An interesting update

Chevrolet Bolt Production To Double After Extended Factory Shutdown?

Ah, yes, but the WSJ says that this proves "American car buyers are showing little interest in vehicles that rely solely on battery". Like lack of sales of Yugos proves that Americans don't drive cars.

 

[Krugerrand]

What, in your opinion, was the purpose of his tweet?

It's pretty simple. He's excited about the possible future of travel - in this case from busy city center to busy city center without the angst that usually goes along with doing that. I've never understood some people's need to sugar all over other people's passions and dreams (even under the guise of 'keeping it real'). We all know it's going to be difficult and time consuming to accomplish, but anything worthwhile always is; you know, like starting an EV car company in Silicon Valley, or a private rocket ship company, or developing attractive solar shingles, or building an underground high speed transport system.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

"The German auto industry under cartel suspicion: According to SPIEGEL information, VW, Audi, Porsche, BMW and Daimler have spoken in secret workcourses - and laid the basis for the Dieselskandal."

Google Translate

 

[neroden]

You know, I've been saying I want cars which will say "I'm sorry, Dave, I can't do that", when the drivers attempt to tailgate, rear-end cars, run over pedestrians, accelerate into walls, etc.... I don't really care about full-self-driving, I'd like cars which will refuse to kill people. Seems like an easier task.

 

[ggr]

"The German auto industry under cartel suspicion: According to SPIEGEL information, VW, Audi, Porsche, BMW and Daimler have spoken in secret workcourses - and laid the basis for the Dieselskandal."

Google Translate

Funny how Bosch never appears in this list...

 

[neroden]

Thanks! Might we assume about 200 passengers per a typical flight? Or is there a better number?

I'm trying to get a feel for what impact such a hyperlood could have on jet fuel demand. I thoroughly expect jet to be the last fuel that is needed in quantity after EVs clean up ground transport, so anything that cuts into jet fuel demand is pretty important.

To a first order of magnitude estimate, "no impact". Don't worry about it. He's not going to successfully build a "hyperloop from NY to DC" in the next decade, so it's not useful for the oil modeling. Even if he does build it, it's going to require a lot of design changes before it is capable of carrying enough passengers to matter.