2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[racer26]

I agree with your post completely, and this is in fact THE fundamental factor I track extremely and most closely.

But note that the graphic you posted is dated and includes numerous mistakes. I keep a list of all battery suppliers' plans individually, because this is extremely important to Tesla's valuation.

Specifically - uses 35GWh for GF1 instead of 105GWh, ignores GF3-5 entirely, AND neglects to mention that CATL's big buildout has not secured funding yet.

 

[dalalsid]

Thank you for your article. I generally agree with your methodology, except to say that I think you're way underestimating Model 3 sales in 2018. I think you may want to incorporate the vast difference between Tesla's brand value (and Supercharger coverage) now vs. when Model S came out, as well as capacity to ramp up production.

I'm only trying to get some kind of rough estimate for US sales.

Very good article with some very nice data points. One thing that I noticed was that you found what I did and that was that S/X straddle a couple of different segments. Mid and Large SUV and Sedan for example. I think what you are missing from the model 3 is that it will also straddle multiple segments and I would go so far as to say that the TM3 will span from Camry/Prius all the way up to lower end E-class and 5-series on the luxury end. When you factor in TCO and residual value the base TM3 is actually very competitive with a base Camry. The TM3 has almost as large as a passenger cabin as the Model S, which is on part with other large luxury sedans, so I have no doubt that the model 3 will compete with base model and AWD 5-Series cars. Those who want a loaded 5-Series or E-Class will opt for an S and those who want an AMG or M5, will opt for a P100D or maybe even look at 3P75D if they spec it out competitively.

All and all very informative and a good read.

Thanks! I totally agree that the Model 3 will attract buyers from more segments than just the compact luxury buyers.

 

[Jayjs20]

Slightly OT, but I just had to share this


"Then again, maybe GM can ride the EV (and Model 3) wave and tap into the growing number of consumers interested in EVs but want the experience via a traditional dealer network."
Chevy Bolt: Surviving The Tesla Model 3 Tsunami

Because people love going to traditional car dealerships, right? RIGHT?!?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Specifically - uses 35GWh for GF1 instead of 105GWh, ignores GF3-5 entirely, AND neglects to mention that CATL's big buildout has not secured funding yet.

Thank you for your reply; I agree.

Could you please expand on and provide support/source for your statement "CATL's big buildout has not secured funding yet?"

I would think Apple alone, or in partnership with other car manufacturers, could front the money if it came down to that.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Remember, NEVS (SAAB) deal with CATL Chinese Battery producer which plan to produce about 200k cars a year about the same time. Supposedly Apple is also rumored to making deals with CATL. Who makes deals with CATL is a good thing to keep track of because other than TSLA/Panasonic they are the other big battery producer. The truth is the more the merrier. With the Chinese regulations it will be hard for all new comers to electric car manufacturing to keep up with demand and TSLA mission is to catalyze sustainable energy and transportation not to be the only one.

View attachment 237519

Source? This chart is the perfect counter to those who think the Tesla "competitors" will outproduce Tesla in EV's. I'm spitballing that the cumulative capacity in 2020 looks to be ~3 million 60kwh BEV's at best?

 

[Reciprocity]

Slightly OT, but I just had to share this


"Then again, maybe GM can ride the EV (and Model 3) wave and tap into the growing number of consumers interested in EVs but want the experience via a traditional dealer network."
Chevy Bolt: Surviving The Tesla Model 3 Tsunami

Because people love going to traditional car dealerships, right? RIGHT?!?

I would have thought the same, but why? If you want an electric car you know about bolts and model 3s. The types of people who see the model 3 for the first time on the road are probably not very EV focused people. You would think given the fact that if someone sees a model 3 on the road for the first time and wants one, they cant have it for ~15 months, depending one when they see and how long it takes them to figure out what it is. My point is that the new demand is going to be driven by how damn S3XY the car is and a Bolt is not going to cut it. They dont just want the TM3 because its electric and has good range, the bolt would suffice for that, they want it because its beautiful

GM has 111 days worth of Inventory on the Bolt. Typically they have around 90 days worth of inventory, so the bolt is not what you woudl call flying off the shelf. I think the bolt is a fine car and from all I have read it is fun to drive and very roomy. But lets be honest, its not very sexy.

 

[mikevbf]

Source? This chart is the perfect counter to those who think the Tesla "competitors" will outproduce Tesla in EV's. I'm spitballing that the cumulative capacity in 2020 looks to be ~3 million 60kwh BEV's at best?

I am guilty of reading and mostly remembering every Electrek article:

Chinese battery maker signs massive supply contract with NEVS ahead of build out of new Gigafactory-size plant
Apple is reportedly working on electric car batteries with China’s biggest battery maker

 

[DurandalAI]

About 2).

I think the recession will start somewhere between January 2019 and February 2020. And last for about 12-18 months, then the economy picks up again.
By 2025 the economy will already by at the middle of the next market cycle...

I'm not discounting your claims, but what is your reasoning?

 

[racer26]

Thank you for your reply; I agree.

Could you please expand on and provide support/source for your statement "CATL's big buildout has not secured funding yet?"

I would think Apple alone, or in partnership with other car manufacturers, could front the money if it came down to that.

Here's some, Power surge: Chinese electric car battery maker charges for global market

I can't find the article I based that statement on now, though.

Basically, CATL is planning an IPO to get funding to actually build their planned 50GWh. Will that work? Maybe. Probably, even, but to stick it in that chart, against the fully-funded GF1 and existing plants while ignoring GF3-5 is pretty disingenuous.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Here's some, Power surge: Chinese electric car battery maker charges for global market

I can't find the article I based that statement on now, though.

Basically, CATL is planning an IPO to get funding to actually build their planned 50GWh. Will that work? Maybe. Probably, even, but to stick it in that chart, against the fully-funded GF1 and existing plants while ignoring GF3-5 is pretty disingenuous.

Agreed, every projection I've seen underestimated Tesla's projected growth. Hopefully Tesla will put some parameters around this sooner rather than later.

For the record, I think it's more likely that CATL will announce a ramp over beyond 50 GWh than not be able to find funding for the first 50 GWh. They're probably the closest player to Tesla in terms of battery production capacity, and Apple clearly knows this.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I would have thought the same, but why? If you want an electric car you know about bolts and model 3s. The types of people who see the model 3 for the first time on the road are probably not very EV focused people. You would think given the fact that if someone sees a model 3 on the road for the first time and wants one, they cant have it for ~15 months, depending one when they see and how long it takes them to figure out what it is. My point is that the new demand is going to be driven by how damn S3XY the car is and a Bolt is not going to cut it. They dont just want the TM3 because its electric and has good range, the bolt would suffice for that, they want it because its beautiful

GM has 111 days worth of Inventory on the Bolt. Typically they have around 90 days worth of inventory, so the bolt is not what you woudl call flying off the shelf. I think the bolt is a fine car and from all I have read it is fun to drive and very roomy. But lets be honest, its not very sexy.

Why? Because they want the lifetime of free oil changes on the Bolt from their dealership! (/jk)

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Okay. Have most active members who post things that aren't being discussed everywhere gone on vacation, or has the discussion become so one sided that insightful comments are being mostly ignored?

I love Tesla and love these moves, but anyone who doesn't think it's a big problem that the broad market is challenging gravity and defying all logic shouldn't be investing. The VIX being this low is not good. Last year China basically tried to impose limits on the ability of banks to sell stock. This worked for a short time but ultimately caused insane volatility and most stocks to fall 10-50% in 1-2 weeks before things calmed down. Trump, the FED, or some big MM is manipulating all stocks. This will not end well for all stocks. Tesla is now a part of many funds and indexes. As such, when the broad market falls (which is eventually has to) Tesla will get hit hard. I'd urge anyone investing in Tesla to pay close attention the broad market.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Okay. Have most active members who post things that aren't being discussed everywhere gone on vacation, or has the discussion become so one sided that insightful comments are being mostly ignored?

I love Tesla and love these moves, but anyone who doesn't think it's a big problem that the broad market is challenging gravity and defying all logic shouldn't be investing. The VIX being this low is not good. Last year China basically tried to impose limits on the ability of banks to sell stock. This worked for a short time but ultimately caused insane volatility and most stocks to fall 10-50% in 1-2 weeks before things calmed down. Trump, the FED, or some big MM is manipulating all stocks. This will not end well for all stocks. Tesla is now a part of many funds and indexes. As such, when the broad market falls (which is eventually has to) Tesla will get hit hard. I'd urge anyone investing in Tesla to pay close attention the broad market.

You continually post things like this and then ask the same question of why no one is replying. Why not use the thread dedicated to the discussion you want to have??

Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

 

[T3slaTulips]

I wonder if Tesla were able to renegotiate a longer term, lower price deal on 18650's?
Looks like they're tossing in 10kWh's worth of them (software locked) for free now. Instant benefit of faster charging.
Tesla strangely starts delivering new 85 kWh battery packs software-locked at 75 kWh
Also, the comments a while back on *no plans to move Model S/X to 2170's* make me wonder if projected demand for Model 3 is even higher and they just can't make 2170's fast enough for a while.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

You continually post things like this and then ask the same question of why no one is replying. Why not use the thread dedicated to the discussion you want to have??

Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

Your snarky response is not appreciated. My posts fit in both sections. General investor discussion is actually more appropriate since my posts have more to do with stocks and stock market manipulation than the economy.

 

[Alketi]

I wonder if Tesla were able to renegotiate a longer term, lower price deal on 18650's?
Looks like they're tossing in 10kWh's worth of them (software locked) for free now. Instant benefit of faster charging.
Tesla strangely starts delivering new 85 kWh battery packs software-locked at 75 kWh
Also, the comments a while back on *no plans to move Model S/X to 2170's* make me wonder if projected demand for Model 3 is even higher and they just can't make 2170's fast enough for a while.

I was trying to rationalize Musk's response to the 2170 question as well. It could also mean that perceived margin gains from the 2170s aren't worth the redesign effort involved in both the S/X battery packs and their associated frames/mount-points and associated support equipment...

Tesla is likely design and capacity constrained, especially with a Roadster, the Y, and a Semi soon on deck. Just my guess.

 

[MXWing]

@howardoark

Paper gain of $3,150 now.

Maybe +$11,000 next week, maybe -$11,000 next week.

I sleep well with my long equity holdings.

 

[AlMc]

Mark Z. disagrees with EM about AI:

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose...nce-risk-zuckerberg.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

 

[techmaven]

Mark Z. disagrees with EM about AI:

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose...nce-risk-zuckerberg.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

I don't think they're talking about the same kind of AI:

A Big Data Cheat Sheet: From Narrow AI to General AI

 

[MitchJi]

I don't think they're talking about the same kind of AI:

A Big Data Cheat Sheet: From Narrow AI to General AI

I didn't read the article, but it sounds like Mark doesn't know what he's talking about if he doesn't know the difference between narrow and general ai.