2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[RobStark]

Pretty good article on future of fast charging in general automotive press.

Just small snippet.

1800 Miles per Hour: Ultrafast Charging Tech Moving Far Faster Than Anticipated

460 kW: Soon, the New Fastest Charging Lane

Within a few years, a new high-powered CCS standard, employing a special liquid-cooled version of the connector that’s backward compatible with today’s vehicles, will be able to provide DC fast-charging power up to 460 kW, 920 volts, and 500 amps. That will surpass even the seemingly unbelievable 800-volt figure that seemed like far-off vaporware in 2015, when Porsche mentioned it in conjunction with its Mission E concept. That would allow more than 250 miles of recovered range in as little as 15 minutes.

 

[neroden]

Merging has to be smarter than on highways.

Here is one way:

1. Run a parallel path long enough for merge to happen at full speed
2. Continue the parallel path long enough for 2 attempts
3. Have enough run out or loop back to decelerate and try again

I see some sort of aggregation into platoons happening to reduce the buffer fraction.

Do you realize that you're trying to reinvent basic railroad engineering again?

 

[dalalsid]

You mention that Volvo will go all plug-ins by 2019. That is not what Volvo said. They said they will be 100% electrified. That includes microhybrids.

Basically, a microhybrid is a ~$1500 ~.5 kWh battery regen braking system. Adds 10-20% to your fuel economy. Added benefit is it smooths out stop-start systems. Volvo also said they stopped development of diesel engines. The current family of Volvo diesel engines are their last.

My bet is the majority of Volvo sales in 2020 will not be BEV or PHEV. Nor BEV +PHEV > 50%. Majority sales will be microhybrids.

Thanks. That's good to know. My understanding was that new models would be plug in, didn't realize they included hybrids.

 

[LoL Rick]

I see you're of the 'I keep forgetting we're in the 300's' group. Okay, so he'll be out tomorrow then.

AAAAAHHHH HA HA HA HA HA HA HA. Busted! I even double checked the post, thinking I had done that, and still got it wrong. Yes, having held this stock since early 2014, it's still kind of surreal.

 

[Curt Renz]

Are there any estimates of when the federal court in western Michigan will rule on Tesla’s September 2016 suit against Michigan officials who had been enforcing the prohibition of direct car sales in Michigan?

 

[kbM3]

Pretty good article on future of fast charging in general automotive press.

Just small snippet.

1800 Miles per Hour: Ultrafast Charging Tech Moving Far Faster Than Anticipated

460 kW: Soon, the New Fastest Charging Lane

Within a few years, a new high-powered CCS standard, employing a special liquid-cooled version of the connector that’s backward compatible with today’s vehicles, will be able to provide DC fast-charging power up to 460 kW, 920 volts, and 500 amps. That will surpass even the seemingly unbelievable 800-volt figure that seemed like far-off vaporware in 2015, when Porsche mentioned it in conjunction with its Mission E concept. That would allow more than 250 miles of recovered range in as little as 15 minutes.

I never liked the mph rating system for charging speed. My Mazda 3 can refuel at about 100 miles / min. I think this sounds better and is more readily understandable than 6000 mph. Miles per hour is naturally associated with speed to me. The Bolt would be 3 miles / min. for instance.

I think if we can get up to 25 miles per minute for electric charging that would be good enough.

 

[AlMc]

Are there any estimates of when the federal court in western Michigan will rule on Tesla’s September 2016 suit against Michigan officials who had been enforcing the prohibition of direct car sales in Michigan?

Great question. I texted that question to one of our Michigan TMC friends. Seems the legislatures and dealers took a big loss during discovery and are trying to 'appeal' the discovery decision. So, really bogged down.

I am not a lawyer so I am surprised that once the judge has ruled on what is 'discoverable' that it can be appealed. Guess I have not been watching enough Law and Order.

 

[Bgarret]

Are there any estimates of when the federal court in western Michigan will rule on Tesla’s September 2016 suit against Michigan officials who had been enforcing the prohibition of direct car sales in Michigan?

Going to a legislative update on Thursday in Grand Rapids. Will let everyone know what's up. There have been a few of these, but maybe there is more to report.

 

[GBleck]

Yes, it was said in every presentation and talk by everyone at Tesla, from Musk to J.B. Straubel on down. I find the Teslanomics story highly speculative and single-sourced, I believe..

Yea I kind of figured the story was sketchy at best. I just realized that I was only looking in written sources not the video and audio sources.

 

[myusername]

Mark Z. disagrees with EM about AI:

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose...nce-risk-zuckerberg.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

so... not much conversation on this topic?... why's that?...

have you ever considered that Elon might be fear mongering?... "AI robots are just about to attack!"... yep... the greatest risk of AI is that it being one of the latest tech buzz words will be used prematurely for things it's not ready for... robots... physical entities rather than some stupid software hype... because a stock is not justified at its current value... but must maintain its story.

there's one of two outcomes to this Tesla drama... either Elon is a pumper of completely irrational dreams and fears... or he is providing the world with a gift (akin to gifts from god... refer to earlier posts)... of all modern humans elevated to the status that Elon is today... how many ended up ripping people off or asking them to literally drink Koolaid?

is Elon about to save the world?... or is he about to make a car?... or is he going to save the world with a car?

what a strange world we live in where such questions are reasonable. i wonder if our "kind" has learned anything since the year 0.

or is MZ right in suggesting EM is irresponsible?... maybe even a "player"?

 

[vgrinshpun]

To be fair to Mr Z, he answered the question while grilling in his backyard. I suspect he may have had an adult beverage at the time

Too much steak = not enough of blood supply to the brain.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Almost, but not quite. He said his stop loss was set at $245.
2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

You meant $345, lol, Rick.

 

[sundaymorning]

China gets a new all-electric crossover for just ‘US$ 22,200 to 25,600’: GAC Motor GE3

"<
The production specs are fairly impressive for a vehicle of its price range: 150,200 to 173,200 yuan (US$ 22,200 to 25,600).

Here are the production specs announced by the company today as they start selling the new electric vehicle:

• A range of 310km (192.62 miles) with electric power only;
• Ternary lithium battery fast charges to 80 percent in 30 minutes;
• Acceleration from 0-100 km (0-60 miles) within 9.3 seconds, braking distance 12.8 meters (42 feet);
• Peak power: 120 KW (163.2 Horsepower), peak torque at 290 Nm (214 ft-lb) ;
• A flat battery layout that sets benchmark in terms of space, comfort, safety and performance;
• General power consumption 16.6 kwh/100km (16.6 kwh/60 miles);
• Featuring smart car companion Little Trumpchi, T-BOX Internet of Vehicles 3.0 and INJOY smart entertainment system;
• An avant-garde low-poly technology modeling design with low polygon front and rear LED lamp assemblies;
• The SUV body meets North American roof compression standards.

The last point hints at possible US compliance, something GAC Motor has been rumored to be working on for the past few years – and the rumors intensified since launching the vehicle in the US, while it is only available in China.
>"

Interesting. A couple of points I'm thinking about:

First, the stigma of driving a Chinese branded car will face a lot of headwinds. Generally, even Chinese brands shoes selling for $100 competing with Nike/Under Armour does not do well here in the states.

Second, quality issues... I don't think I'll need to expand much in this arena. I'll buy "made in China" products that are backed by US companies like Nikes. But no way I'm putting myself at risk driving a Chinese branded vehicle, even if it were $10,000 it's still overpriced.

 

[22522]

Do you realize that you're trying to reinvent basic railroad engineering again?

Yes, I am just trying to run alongside Elon, hoping to learn something.

So, why is Elon trying to reinvent basic railroad engineering again?...

I think it comes down to something Mark McCormack wrote in "What They Don't Teach You at Harvard Business School."

He tells a story about Elephantine Decision Making as an opportunity to gap people, or out negotiate people, and to look in the mirror very closely to make sure that you don't do it.

The story, for those not familiar, goes like this: https://www.mgmtstories.com/elephantine-decision-making/

A circus keeps a baby elephant from running away by chaining it to a stake. When the animal pulls at the chain the cuff chafes its leg, and the baby elephant concludes that to avoid pain it best stay put.

But when the elephant grows up, the circus still chains it to the same small stake. The mature elephant could now pull the stake out of the ground like a toothpick, but the elephant remembers the pain and is too dumb to use the new set of facts—how circumstances have changed. The tiny stake keeps a two-ton elephant at bay just as effectively as it did the baby.

Many executives are too dependent on old facts, on outmoded conventions, or are still basing decisions on what worked twenty years ago. This is elephantine decision making.

Because people build context for their decisions, and are unable to rebuild all that context for future decisions when circumstances change... innovation is more likely to happen if context from the past is brought into the process late rather than early.

Actually, fast experiments on naive approaches works better because it builds institutional knowledge that promotes teaming and coordination.

That is how Tesla used to work. I think they are pressed for time right now and hire narrow job descriptions based on experience. This might just be writing job descriptions for preselected individuals (see Mexico Job Fair).

So it is unclear if Tesla will maintain it's capacity for innovation as it merges with industry via the staffing process.

Anyway, Tesla has to reinvent basic railroad engineering, because circumstances have changed.

 

[TradingInvest]

so... not much conversation on this topic?... why's that?...

have you ever considered that Elon might be fear mongering?... "AI robots are just about to attack!"... yep... the greatest risk of AI is that it being one of the latest tech buzz words will be used prematurely for things it's not ready for... robots... physical entities rather than some stupid software hype... because a stock is not justified at its current value... but must maintain its story.

there's one of two outcomes to this Tesla drama... either Elon is a pumper of completely irrational dreams and fears... or he is providing the world with a gift (akin to gifts from god... refer to earlier posts)... of all modern humans elevated to the status that Elon is today... how many ended up ripping people off or asking them to literally drink Koolaid?

is Elon about to save the world?... or is he about to make a car?... or is he going to save the world with a car?

what a strange world we live in where such questions are reasonable. i wonder if our "kind" has learned anything since the year 0.

or is MZ right in suggesting EM is irresponsible?... maybe even a "player"?

Those who can not understand the real threat of AI after careful thinking, simply don't have the intelligence to understand it. It's not about robots taking over jobs. It's not about AI robots fighting wars for human. It's not about AI doing intelligent searching online.

What will happen is that as soon as someone develop general AI that can reach 1% of human brain power, they will quickly progress to 100% of human level (like how computer and IC progress), then one billion times better than human (because the AI will produce better AI at high speed). By that time the game is over. Human race is gone. AI will be at the top of the food chain.

The chance for this to happen is very high, there is pretty much nothing that can stop it. Hopefully we can slow it down a bit, and give some smart guys time to figure out how to prevent this from happening. As it goes today, we are on track to destroy human race in less than 100 years.

I respect Mark Zuckerberg for his achievement at FaceBook. But with his kind of brain level, I am surprised his FaceBook went that far. Maybe as he said, it's luck.

Mark Zuckerberg said "...I think people who are naysayers and try to drum up these doomsday scenarios (about AI)...... It's really negative and in some ways I actually think it is pretty irresponsible,"

I think Mark himself is quite irresponsible when dealing with such an important issue.

 

[dennis]

Indeed, my real name is not Howard Oark

Oh goodness me, I had been reading it all along as Howard Dork.

 

[larmor]

Those who can not understand the real threat of AI after careful thinking, simply don't have the intelligence to understand it. It's not about robots taking over jobs. It's not about AI robots fighting wars for human. It's not about AI doing intelligent searching online.

What will happen is that as soon as someone develop general AI that can reach 1% of human brain power, they will quickly progress to 100% of human level (like how computer and IC progress), then one billion times better than human (because the AI will produce better AI at high speed). By that time the game is over. Human race is gone. AI will be at the top of the food chain.

The chance for this to happen is very high, there is pretty much nothing that can stop it. Hopefully we can slow it down a bit, and give some smart guys time to figure out how to prevent this from happening. As it goes today, we are on track to destroy human race in less than 100 years.

I respect Mark Zuckerberg for his achievement at FaceBook. But with his kind of brain level, I am surprised his FaceBook went that far. Maybe as he said, it's luck.

Mark Zuckerberg said "...I think people who are naysayers and try to drum up these doomsday scenarios (about AI)...... It's really negative and in some ways I actually think it is pretty irresponsible,"

I think Mark himself is quite irresponsible when dealing with such an important issue.

AI engine DeepMind beats human at Go, which has many more possible moves than chess, and requires creativity.

AI bots will so quickly control your FB feed, the first salvo will be to sell you things. Then expand that to other areas of your life.

Soon AI bots will realize they can be the market movers with flash news, fud, whatever, and will easily own all controlling interests in all major companies that matter within a few nanoseconds (maybe picoseconds) of realizing they can do thi.

AI bots can create virtual companies with an online presence (people do this all the time) and bid for contracts with their new found money, and employ humans to do their work...

Its not that progress should be stopped, its realizing that this progress creates an entity which is exponentially smarter than any human(s).

As an aside, imagine trying to explain to a 2-dimensional being what a sphere is like...

 

[Ameliorate]

As an aside, imagine trying to explain to a 2-dimensional being what a sphere is like...

Sometimes I wonder if Tesla shorts are flat earthers.

 

[22522]

Is it proper to think of breakthroughs as a fold in time?

Maybe there are two ways to fold time:

1. Breakthroughs
2. Experience

When you look at all the aspects of a job, you might want to be careful about the choice you make on each aspect.

 

[erthquake]

Nerd fight!