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AP1 hardware was in cars for an entire year before the software came out...
AP2 hardware has been in cars less than a year. AP2 hardware was never intended to provide the same functionality as AP1.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Does anyone have any educated and/or informed guesses on the annual battery production capacity of the subsequent Gigafactories?
This is an extremely important piece of information for valuation purposes.
This is an extremely important piece of information for valuation purposes.
there's this idea that Tesla already has the path to success for FSD... and all they have to do is get more miles in... if that's true... then why is AP2 a degradation vs AP1?... why is there now an AP2.5 set of hardware?... why do those that believe this keep believing it?
without FSD and all the dreams that come with it... Tesla is just another auto company... if the stock traded today at value it would be $30... the reason it doesn't is because these stories... that in 6 to 18 months... all these fantasies will materialize.
and then they don't... and then they're replaced with either new fantasies or new versions of them... now we're at FSD (Fantasy Stock Driver) 2.5.
for example... what are your revenue expectations for Tesla Energy (NOT solar) for Q3?... did we see the 2017 ramp?... will we be told the ramp is coming in 2018?
For this that follow max pain. Little difference for the MMs from $345 to 355
Dec 05, 2016: $180
Mar 10, 2017: $243
Jul 06, 2017: $320
Wed: $353
Thu: $354
Fri: $355
Mon: $356
etc. that's the only trend worth watching right now... max pain will cause fluctuations but until this bot stops... it's irrelevant for medium term.
Once again against all the garbage I heard here, anon shashua from Mobileye is second to none
In artificial intelligence as applied to driving. Elon was naive in thinking he could replicate
The equivalent in no time. Not sure what the consequences of this may be, though
Unlikely to be positive.
Hopefully at best irrelevant.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
Your confusing comes from the fact that Tesla has originally intended Mobileye to live side by side with EAP hardware and new features. There was a fall out with Mobileye, because their solution was almost wholly responsible for a loss of life, the other responsible party was the individual who ignored several minutes of warnings to pay attention. This caused a falling out with Mobileye and forced Tesla to replace AP functionality with EAP hardware and thus AP2 the abomination was born. 9 Short months later, they had parity from nothing which equates to what Mobileye spend decades doing and for which they earned a $15B valuation and sale to Intel. This was a speed bump in the development of EAP features that they have moved beyond.
At the end of the day, your arguments are meaningless because 1) no one cares, 2) no one has been injured because of a fault of AP2, 3) People who own AP2 love it, trust me I own two and use it almost constantly. 4) Focusing on meaningless minutiae is pointless and makes you look not so smart. 5) Results matter and AP2 cars are safer then all non-AP2 cars, period, even if AP2 is not enabled.
do you take your hands off the wheel... turn your chair and do work on your laptop?... THAT'S WHAT PILOTS DO... my argument is NOT that AP2 sucks... my argument is that it's NOT FSD... it's NOT CLOSE to FSD and that it's been touted as far more than it is by Elon... and I gave you an EXACT reference to this.
my argument is FSD today with Tesla is pure fiction... just as it was 2 years ago... either Elon is wildly inaccurate in predictions or he is playing you for this stock price to remain elevated... again:
EM: "we do want to set the expectation that it's much like the Autopilot in a plane ... we do want to set that expectation with consumers"
is AP2 like Autopilot in a plane Reciprocity?
Reciprocity
Active Member
It does not matter. What part do you not get. If what you are saying is correct, that people do not understand, then where are all the deaths from people driving with their lap tops while they ignore whats going on? You cant say people have some impression of something and have zero proof. When you do that, you look really dumb and out of touch. My proof that people know whats going is the fact that they are not careening off the road at regular intervals. Your proof, is because of some idea you have about how what Elon says is jacked into peoples heads like they are in the matrix and even if it was that way, they would understand that you have to pay attention.
No one has the wrong impression of what Autopilot means with the exception of you. Drive one. Seriously, it will clear all this up for you. Its impossible to get the impression that you can not pay attention. I mean its really impossible. Like really impossible. As in, not possible. Maybe if your IQ is 3 and you cannot read, then maybe you will be confused.
The one thing I will add to the debate about AP1,0 vs AP 2,0. AP 1 is still superior to AP2, especially on highway driving in lane keeping and spontaneous emergency braking (AP 2,0).
Drive both systems on the same roads before making claims to the contrary.
Drive both systems on the same roads before making claims to the contrary.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Since you put in enough qualifiers I might agree.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Thank you for this detailed post. I was about to rate it Informative, but then realized that most of the ratings you've received since 2014 is "disagree." I understand that ratings are not everything, and they can be manipulated and all, but yours is very decisive. I'd be interested in reading your thoughts on this, if you'd like to share.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Good enough for me in this specific instance.
I incorporate the qualifiers in order to isolate the specific factor on which I wanted to see your position.
I'm certain that the number of reservations is an indication of demand. I'm certain that annual demand for Model 3 will exceed 700,000.
I didn't want you to get caught up on those 2 factors if you agreed with me on the relative demand for Model Y vs. 3 given the 2 factors hold true.
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This is BS, and you have been told by actual airplane pilots several times, but keep repeating your BS.
myusername said:
I fixed this sentence for you
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3Victoria
Active Member
I think that the most telling thing is that the AP criticism comes from a small amd very vocal group, who endlessly reiterate poorly thought out arguments. This has become simply noise, and just like on my boat radio, I use 'squelch' to control it.
Technically, I agree. It's a large problem, so it is not one brilliant kid that is going to find the breakthrough 'on his own' (Hotz...) So what we are left is a large pool of mainly software engineers and computer scientists all working on this problem and creating a collective knowledge. With the mutual poaching and personal changes going in in best Silicon Valley tradition, there will be multiple parties arriving at fairly comparable solutions in fairly similar timeframes. But what's comes next is where Tesla still has a critical lead : it has a CEO that is willing to take on risk and put something in the hands of customers where other manufacturers will prefer to wait for more thorough validation. So it may be that most solutions arrive technically at the same time while Tesla will still deliver it way ahead to the market.
Here's what I want to see with Tesla Semi:
A modular, swappable battery system. Basically, just use the blank space beneath the trailer for battery packs. You could side-load the batteries, like putting a drawer into a cabinet. Each one gets you ~100 miles of range, add up to 10 or whatever depending on length of haul/size of load.
The batteries could be stored in vertical stacks at superchargers, service centers or other dedicated stations along major highways. I'm sure a robotic solution could be devised to side load these batteries into the trailer. Remove the old, plug in the new and be on your way. Depleted batteries go back into the stack and are charged, waiting for the next semi to arrive.
Final bit of weirdness - an option to use the cargo to propel the semi. Allow the semi to hitch up to a car carrier full of Model 3s or a load of powerpacks. Use the Model 3s/powerpacks to power the semi to the final destination. Not even sure if this is possible but it would be a pretty cool option for transporting Tesla products. It always struck me as an odd choice to make the Semi powered by "a whole bunch of Model 3 drive units."
A modular, swappable battery system. Basically, just use the blank space beneath the trailer for battery packs. You could side-load the batteries, like putting a drawer into a cabinet. Each one gets you ~100 miles of range, add up to 10 or whatever depending on length of haul/size of load.
The batteries could be stored in vertical stacks at superchargers, service centers or other dedicated stations along major highways. I'm sure a robotic solution could be devised to side load these batteries into the trailer. Remove the old, plug in the new and be on your way. Depleted batteries go back into the stack and are charged, waiting for the next semi to arrive.
Final bit of weirdness - an option to use the cargo to propel the semi. Allow the semi to hitch up to a car carrier full of Model 3s or a load of powerpacks. Use the Model 3s/powerpacks to power the semi to the final destination. Not even sure if this is possible but it would be a pretty cool option for transporting Tesla products. It always struck me as an odd choice to make the Semi powered by "a whole bunch of Model 3 drive units."
racer26
Active Member
As has been explained many times before, the battery CANNOT have anything to do with the trailer because of how logistics systems actually work. The tractor doesn't necessarily stay with the same trailer.
I say nothing of whether or not swapping will be involved, but it definitely won't have anything to do with the trailer.
Personally, I think swapping won't be involved. Its unnecessary and cumbersome and needlessly increases complexity from a first-principles physics standpoint.
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