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"China is discussing a plan to allow foreign carmakers to set up wholly owned electric-vehicle businesses..."
This Morning: Business: Washington Post Business Page, Business News
This Morning: Business: Washington Post Business Page, Business News
What if it's something much simpler: they want customers to - without a doubt - hit their EPA numbers, pretty much regardless of driving style or accessory usage.
Being the Model 3 is so mass market and appealing down market, they need the cars to, without question, hit their advertised numbers. Tesla can't afford for there to be questions about the car's capability.
So they lower the expectations on the mileage to an amount nearly impossible not to hit. You eliminate the problem. And the number is still high enough to be very impressive to most.
Mike Smith
Active Member
This should be the big news of the day. If this gets finalized it should add at least $30 to TSLA in short order
racer26
Active Member
That's not the goal of EPA numbers, though. The goal is for vehicles to be comparable with them, because they're supposed to be calculated the same way.
And if that were the goal, why not do the same with S/X's numbers? S/X numbers are *more* optimistic than average vehicles.
(0) Can only enter once, unless there's a major update: better not to enter than to lose
(1) Car is unfinished in multiple important ways: production line, UI, AP2
(2) Large reservation backlog and buzz means that it doesn't really need the hype
(3) Next year they should have AWD and Performance versions available for entry and testing
But I'm not discussing the goal of EPA numbers, I'm discussing Tesla's self-reported numbers and how they don't jive with EPA.
I suspect S & X sales are actually less reliant on mileage concerns and more on other metrics. They're playing to a different group.
Not sure where you are getting all this from. Here is how this exchange started.
See how I wrote 'next year' and nothing about enough supply to replace every single ICE in 2021?
racer26
Active Member
All EPA numbers are self-reported, but they're backed up by published testing data, and that is the incontrovertible facts I'm basing my statement on.
Tesla is (justifiably, IMO) reporting higher EPA range on S/X (via the 73% factor) than would a comparable model in terms of the actual test results from other OEMs who use the 70% factor.
Tesla is also reporting *lower* EPA range on 3 (via its 65% factor) than would a comparable model in terms of the actual test results.
Since 3 has better aero than S/X, and all of Tesla's models are substantially better than average aerodynamically speaking, something about the number selected doesn't add up.
I could buy into S/X playing to a different audience that cares less about range, perhaps, but in that case why not have S/X use the 70% that all other automakers use?
All I'm saying is that there is some funny business at play with the EPA range numbers of Tesla's models and its unclear why.
racer26
Active Member
Guess we agree to disagree. EPA numbers as they're currently calculated are not difficult to achieve. I see no reason Tesla would need to make them easier to achieve.
Seems much more likely to me that Tesla wants to keep up the narrative that S is better than 3 in all metrics, and publishing a realistic range number for 3 doesn't fit with that narrative at this time.
I agree on the latter bit. I've come to genuinely believe the 3 is actually a superior vehicle (in terms of simplicity and efficiency/design) to the S at this point - based on what I've seen and know. I'd be curious if the S will ever get a similar treatment in terms of motor choice and subsystem design to bring it more in line and gather those efficiencies.
racer26
Active Member
Based on the words of a friend who's sat in a 3? Tesla has to step up the S/X game imminently, or else the 3 will make it look bad in more ways than one. His words were that the build quality and materials in 3 LR w/PUP make S/X look like crap in comparison.
I am strongly suspecting we see a S/X update in the immediate future, since 3 is on the cusp of going wide-launch and they can't keep its real features a mystery much longer. Perhaps the Semi rolls onto stage delivering S/X with an updated interior and efficiency upgrades to bring it more in line with 3's efficiency next month?
Indeed, but it's being overwhelmed by headlines today about the Jefferies rating of TSLA. Their analyst is stuck in the mode of college financial students learning valuation models that supposedly tell investors how a stock should be priced, rather than anticipating how the market will actually price it during the coming months. Doing the latter is impossible by just plugging in numbers. The analyst is obviously outside of his element regarding an innovative young company disrupting long established companies in capital intensive industries. He really should stick to evaluating only established companies in stable industries with less risk to both investors and short sellers.
As you suggest, the China news is far more important for the future of Tesla. If the proposal does become Chinese policy, indeed a huge jump should be expected in the share price.
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Wouldn't surprise me. My real question is this: Once the word is out - I wonder how much the S will even matter.
I mean, of course you need a higher end vehicle with better margins and just to have a halo car - but in terms of actual revenue and sales...does it truly matter?
Seeing an update/upscaling come soon (with the truck would be glorious) would certainly be welcome.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Then I do not understand why you cited an article about 2021 production levels to support your claim.
The 19th National Congress of the CCP is really soon and we could see if this becomes a policy within this year. For those unfamiliar with it, the National Congress of CCP is a once in five year event in China that set the plan for all sorts of social, political, social, etc. plans for the next five years.
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