Yggdrasill
Active Member
Nothing yet. We should know in a few weeks if the Liberal Party is able to do something about it.
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Nothing yet. We should know in a few weeks if the Liberal Party is able to do something about it.
I tend to agree, but it's not entirely easy to say, given that some people don't use the superchargers at all, while others use it exclusively. I do think Tesla is thinking more along those lines, though, with the "400 kWh included" strategy.20% utilization by each user every year is a bit toooo much. I would put that number to 10% or less.
The Tesla SC rates barely cover the costs of coal and fossil fuel powered electricity. Check out the M3 forums. Some are thinking of charging at SC all the time, because the rate is cheaper than the tier 2/3 PG&E rates. There is no margin in those rates to cover even interest on the $8B capex.SuperCharger Usage is no longer free .. ? So even if it needs to spend $8B, they have a revenue stream to fund it.
Your ceiling here is the number of free or almost free Powerwalls/other home battery packs sponsored by rate payers of PG&E and other utilities.Powerwall... .. ... ... ... ...
They can use many of the prior SolarCity solar panel installation crews for the battery installation crews, and are doing exactly that.
All of this seems in hand within the next couple of years now. A 20 years timeframe for conversion to every home having its own battery (if appropriate) seems reasonable given this flow. That's my timeframe rule of thumb for civil energy conversion of the planet to solar, including USA as my primary example; so, around 2035 or so (given that solar started in ernest a few years ago).
I can't find the post here that discussed this, but I found this a great listen for why NUMMI Toyota "team" principles and just doing things right didn't get implemented at GM fast enough to stop it from going bankrupt. This link was posted here someplace. Very good listen. I did have to put on my NPR filter (to filter out all the mood stuff and weird talking style of the editors).
561: NUMMI 2015
This reminds me of all the old baby boomer incapabilities that I grew up with during the same time period. It was a time in American history when we couldn't do anything. Every great idea we came up with got shot down. Only geeks hiding behind DARPA got anything done with the "Internet", and of course, that burst out to spite all those pieces of crap do nothings, but we still haven't recovered from that attitude of nonimprovement of that era. (As usual, I suspect USSR meddling to exacerbate the incapabilities of USA at the time, as now.)
It would be a great history to sit through a listen for people like Elon and just mull the mind for current ideas.
newyorker said:As the Wall Street Journal reported, a design engineer for Tesla named Cristina Balan noticed in 2014 that Model S cars on the assembly line had an observable gap between the headliner (the material on the interior of the car’s roof) and the trim on the adjacent support pillar. Worried that other, more critical parts didn’t fit or meet tolerances, and upset that people were paying more than a hundred thousand dollars for shoddy workmanship, Balan told her managers and Musk about the problem.
Over the next few months, Balan says she was demoted, harassed, and ultimately forced to quit—even though she had been so integral to the development of Tesla’s power system that her initials were engraved on each battery.
20% seems too low for mass adoption. A huge percentage of people live in apartments with no chargers.Just to do some calculations on the amount of capex required for the Supercharger expansion:
Assumptions:
- 25,000 USD cost per supercharger stall
- 12,500 mile annual Tesla mileage
- 20% of mileage done on the Tesla superchargers
- 400 Wh/mile
- 70 kW per supercharger stall
- 10% utilization of the supercharger capacity
Okay, each user will need 12,500 miles x 0.4 kWh/mile x 0.2 = 1,000 kWh/year. And each supercharger can output 70 kW x 365 days/year x 24 hours/day x 0.1 = 61,300 kWh/year
That means each supercharger can support 61,300 kWh/year / 1,000 kWh/year/Tesla = 61.3 Teslas. And the capex per new Tesla is 25,000 USD / 61.3 Teslas = 407 USD/Tesla.
That means that at an annual production of 500k Teslas, Tesla needs to spend around 200 million USD per year on the supercharger network.
This is pretty conservatively calculated. I think the utilization will be higher, and the usage per Tesla will be lower.
I don't see how Tesla can go to zero with FSD with 99.999% of cars are still driven by humans. FSD isn't going to do anything about someone texting and plowing into you.
I do get the point though, overall Tesla statistics could be far better than everyone else.
The concept is never about perfection, it's about improvement.
People park somewhere. Charging will be installed where people park their cars for the night and/or where they work. It's cheaper and more practical. (Charging at work also makes it possible to use solar without batteries.)20% seems too low for mass adoption. A huge percentage of people live in apartments with no chargers.
May be you are thinking from the wrong angle, like from Norway?
View attachment 255746
Now place yourself here in China, and think how to drop a 500ft cord from 52nd floor to charge your car.
View attachment 255747
As a reminer, Tesla has now started selling to people in US without home charging. Probably because the buyer pool with home charging was exhausted.
The Tesla SC rates barely cover the costs of coal and fossil fuel powered electricity. Check out the M3 forums. Some are thinking of charging at SC all the time, because the rate is cheaper than the tier 2/3 PG&E rates. There is no margin in those rates to cover even interest on the $8B capex.
Your ceiling here is the number of free or almost free Powerwalls/other home battery packs sponsored by rate payers of PG&E and other utilities.
After ~5 years, there is also the 'battery replacement' business that should kick in.
That attitude exists even in this era, in new car companies. Here is one bitter lesson for an engineer.
Elon Musk Has Delivery Issues
20% seems too low for mass adoption. A huge percentage of people live in apartments with no chargers.
May be you are thinking from the wrong angle, like from Norway?
View attachment 255746
Now place yourself here in China, and think how to drop a 500ft cord from 52nd floor to charge your car.
View attachment 255747
As a reminer, Tesla has now started selling to people in US without home charging. Probably because the buyer pool with home charging was exhausted.
Being a human isn’t going to do anything about someone texting and plowing in you either, unless you’re very aware of what’s going on. Hopefully while other automakers are catching up and older cars get off the road, you can use that time that you would be having to make sure you’re within the lines to watching for things around you like that texting teeen driver.I don't see how Tesla can go to zero with FSD with 99.999% of cars are still driven by humans. FSD isn't going to do anything about someone texting and plowing into you.
I do get the point though, overall Tesla statistics could be far better than everyone else.
Well, actually, in California they are.... Why do they even have parking spaces at all? Those aren’t mandated.
Where it is not mandated it is quite common for higher-end MFD's to have charging for all units. In one new building a few blocks from my location in Miami there is a choice between Tesla HPWC, CHAdeMO or CCS for each space for each unit. Some units have three spaces so the unit could have all three. I fully expect that tesl will probably have the new urban Supercharger available for purchase and that building will, like others, undoubtably make those available too....
Apartments make investments in amenities in order to make their offerings compelling compared to others! Some have covered parking, pools, parks, etc, in order to get you to rent there. To think that once enough people start asking for car chargers, that they won’t put them in, is (that word again) ridiculous. Since the demand for EV parking will start at the top, with those with $$$$, you can expect that apartment complexes will be interested in serving these individuals...
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Where it is not mandated it is quite common for higher-end MFD's to have charging for all units. In one new building a few blocks from my location in Miami there is a choice between Tesla HPWC, CHAdeMO or CCS for each space for each unit. Some units have three spaces so the unit could have all three. I fully expect that tesl will probably have the new urban Supercharger available for purchase and that building will, like others, undoubtably make those available too.
I have found apartments in Brisbane, Toronto, Vancouver and Nice that have charging for every unit so the one in Miami is swimming with the flow. Those are the only places I have checked, but I imagine this is a worldwide phenomenon. None of those places are cheap.
Soon many places will be required to have charging, as California does.