Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
SuperCharger Usage is no longer free .. ? So even if it needs to spend $8B, they have a revenue stream to fund it.
The Tesla SC rates barely cover the costs of coal and fossil fuel powered electricity. Check out the M3 forums. Some are thinking of charging at SC all the time, because the rate is cheaper than the tier 2/3 PG&E rates. There is no margin in those rates to cover even interest on the $8B capex.

Powerwall... .. ... ... ... ...
They can use many of the prior SolarCity solar panel installation crews for the battery installation crews, and are doing exactly that.

All of this seems in hand within the next couple of years now. A 20 years timeframe for conversion to every home having its own battery (if appropriate) seems reasonable given this flow. That's my timeframe rule of thumb for civil energy conversion of the planet to solar, including USA as my primary example; so, around 2035 or so (given that solar started in ernest a few years ago).
Your ceiling here is the number of free or almost free Powerwalls/other home battery packs sponsored by rate payers of PG&E and other utilities.
After ~5 years, there is also the 'battery replacement' business that should kick in.

I can't find the post here that discussed this, but I found this a great listen for why NUMMI Toyota "team" principles and just doing things right didn't get implemented at GM fast enough to stop it from going bankrupt. This link was posted here someplace. Very good listen. I did have to put on my NPR filter (to filter out all the mood stuff and weird talking style of the editors).

561: NUMMI 2015

This reminds me of all the old baby boomer incapabilities that I grew up with during the same time period. It was a time in American history when we couldn't do anything. Every great idea we came up with got shot down. Only geeks hiding behind DARPA got anything done with the "Internet", and of course, that burst out to spite all those pieces of crap do nothings, but we still haven't recovered from that attitude of nonimprovement of that era. (As usual, I suspect USSR meddling to exacerbate the incapabilities of USA at the time, as now.)

It would be a great history to sit through a listen for people like Elon and just mull the mind for current ideas.

That attitude exists even in this era, in new car companies. Here is one bitter lesson for an engineer.
Elon Musk Has Delivery Issues
newyorker said:
As the Wall Street Journal reported, a design engineer for Tesla named Cristina Balan noticed in 2014 that Model S cars on the assembly line had an observable gap between the headliner (the material on the interior of the car’s roof) and the trim on the adjacent support pillar. Worried that other, more critical parts didn’t fit or meet tolerances, and upset that people were paying more than a hundred thousand dollars for shoddy workmanship, Balan told her managers and Musk about the problem.

Over the next few months, Balan says she was demoted, harassed, and ultimately forced to quit—even though she had been so integral to the development of Tesla’s power system that her initials were engraved on each battery.


Just to do some calculations on the amount of capex required for the Supercharger expansion:

Assumptions:
- 25,000 USD cost per supercharger stall
- 12,500 mile annual Tesla mileage
- 20% of mileage done on the Tesla superchargers
- 400 Wh/mile
- 70 kW per supercharger stall
- 10% utilization of the supercharger capacity

Okay, each user will need 12,500 miles x 0.4 kWh/mile x 0.2 = 1,000 kWh/year. And each supercharger can output 70 kW x 365 days/year x 24 hours/day x 0.1 = 61,300 kWh/year

That means each supercharger can support 61,300 kWh/year / 1,000 kWh/year/Tesla = 61.3 Teslas. And the capex per new Tesla is 25,000 USD / 61.3 Teslas = 407 USD/Tesla.

That means that at an annual production of 500k Teslas, Tesla needs to spend around 200 million USD per year on the supercharger network.

This is pretty conservatively calculated. I think the utilization will be higher, and the usage per Tesla will be lower.
20% seems too low for mass adoption. A huge percentage of people live in apartments with no chargers.
May be you are thinking from the wrong angle, like from Norway?
norhomes.JPG


Now place yourself here in China, and think how to drop a 500ft cord from 52nd floor to charge your car.
china_floating_city1.jpg


As a reminer, Tesla has now started selling to people in US without home charging. Probably because the buyer pool with home charging was exhausted.
 
Last edited:
Some thoughts on the next year for Tesla, please feel free to poke (friendly) holes: I don't know how many people have died driving Tesla's, but I think once autopilot is really level 4-5 (some time in the next year is what it sounds like to me) I suspect that accidents and deaths will go down to pretty much 0. I know Volvo has that goal by 2020, but it seems like Tesla might get there first, and long before many other automakers. Is it possible that NHTSA or someone could force other automakers to use autopilot? Would Tesla be morally obligated to sell a retrofit kit for older cars? This seems like kind of a profound technology so it seems like kind of a literal waste of life if laggards don't get there for years to come, in fact I'd happily pay an extra 100 bucks a year in taxes or whatever if it could save 20,000 lives and x injuries, cats, dogs, deer, etc, not to mention all the other cool conveniences it could bring.

Also with the person selling the Model 3 for 150k. I never heard if he actually ended up getting that price or not. But it does seem like there could be a real scarcity of Model 3 for a while, and I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla manages production to make sure that there is a scarcity for quite a while, which could possibly make used Model 3s appreciate in value, kinda crazy to think about that considering what happens to BMW values...and that's not even taking into consideration the taxi service thing.
 
20% seems too low for mass adoption. A huge percentage of people live in apartments with no chargers.
May be you are thinking from the wrong angle, like from Norway?
View attachment 255746

Now place yourself here in China, and think how to drop a 500ft cord from 52nd floor to charge your car.
View attachment 255747

As a reminer, Tesla has now started selling to people in US without home charging. Probably because the buyer pool with home charging was exhausted.
People park somewhere. Charging will be installed where people park their cars for the night and/or where they work. It's cheaper and more practical. (Charging at work also makes it possible to use solar without batteries.)

With load sharing, you need on average something in the area of 500-2000 W per parking spot. This is sufficient to cover the average consumption of an EV with a normal use pattern. If you're charging off-peak, you'll get the maximum amount of charging that your car can accept, while if you're charging on-peak, you'll get 500-2000 W. And once you finish charging, your power is diverted to someone else.

This sort of system is quickly becoming the norm here in Norway, for apartment complexes and larger public charging installations. I'm not how sure how common it has become everywhere else, but the rest of the world will catch up. One supplier of these sorts of chargers: EV charging | Elbil lader | Norway | ZAPTEC

Edit: Also, something like 60% of the US population can easily get charging at home. We're not there yet where 60% of the US population has a Tesla...
 
Last edited:
The Tesla SC rates barely cover the costs of coal and fossil fuel powered electricity. Check out the M3 forums. Some are thinking of charging at SC all the time, because the rate is cheaper than the tier 2/3 PG&E rates. There is no margin in those rates to cover even interest on the $8B capex.


Your ceiling here is the number of free or almost free Powerwalls/other home battery packs sponsored by rate payers of PG&E and other utilities.
After ~5 years, there is also the 'battery replacement' business that should kick in.



That attitude exists even in this era, in new car companies. Here is one bitter lesson for an engineer.
Elon Musk Has Delivery Issues




20% seems too low for mass adoption. A huge percentage of people live in apartments with no chargers.
May be you are thinking from the wrong angle, like from Norway?
View attachment 255746

Now place yourself here in China, and think how to drop a 500ft cord from 52nd floor to charge your car.
View attachment 255747

As a reminer, Tesla has now started selling to people in US without home charging. Probably because the buyer pool with home charging was exhausted.

Mostly drivel as usual. Solar powered charging is cheap compared to utility rates. A Tesla microgrid can supply power 24x7 at 5c/KWh and going down a electricity rates go up.

Electricity is everywhere.. There is like 0 new infrastructure required. Charging will be on every street, in every garage and places you can't even imagine. If you have a car and park it, you will be able to get charging. If someone needs more power in their home they can easily have it added or add solar + battery. People didn't have plumbing or electricity in the beginning. When someone is switching from 2 gas cars to 2 electric cars they could be converting as much as $500-700/mo. in fuel cost to $200 or less with solar on electricity. That is a lot of extra resources to use on solar or bringing in 50 more amps to charge your cars.

Tesla doesn't have to sell a single panel or battery pack to anyone. All they need to do is power their own charging network for massive profits and cash flow. Tesla will become the largest utility in the world by just power their own charging infrastructure. A Tesla semi for example is equivalent to 34 model 3s in terms of consumption and there will only be one way to charge those rigs on long hauls. 10,000 rigs is 340,000 model 3s. Picture truck stops with micro grids right next to them supplying electricity at 5c/KWh and charging 20c/KWh retail. Reach semi will consume over a megawatt per day. No imagine 100,000 or a million rigs feeding Tesla with billions in cash in places like China, India, Europe and the US where diesel will be outlawed in the next decade. Governments will be tripping over themselves to fund these microgrids with cheap loans, because without clean per what's the point of outlawing diesel. And don't forget who Tesla is buying the microgrids from? Tesla solar panels and Tesla powerepacks.

To me the Semi dwarfs the model 3 in terms of mission and maybe profits when you include the charging infrastructure. 100,000 semis are equivalent to 3,400,000 model 3s with more then half of their charging coming from Tesla and the sun at 15c/KWh profit not to mention all the customers that will want solar+battery at their warehouses to charge while loading and unloading.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bookfast
I don't see how Tesla can go to zero with FSD with 99.999% of cars are still driven by humans. FSD isn't going to do anything about someone texting and plowing into you.

I do get the point though, overall Tesla statistics could be far better than everyone else.
Being a human isn’t going to do anything about someone texting and plowing in you either, unless you’re very aware of what’s going on. Hopefully while other automakers are catching up and older cars get off the road, you can use that time that you would be having to make sure you’re within the lines to watching for things around you like that texting teeen driver.

I suspect that the insurance “penalty” of being a human driver will force the casuals off the road, leaving those with a need for fun driving to pay that monetary penalty when they want a drive for the fun of driving as opposed to commuting. I expect younger generations and others to embrace self-driving when it is available as it will be lower stress and enable you to do other things.

In time it will be cheaper to hire a FSD vehicle than drive your old clunker with insurance and gas tax costs so people will retire them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SunCatcher
The ridiculousness of people suggesting that someone who PARKS A CAR at their apartment complex won’t EVER be able to charge it where they park it is ridiculous. Wait, let me say ridiculous one more time. Ridiculous. Ok, now that I’ve gotten that out of my system, who has ever seen a swimming pool or a work-out room at an apartment complex? Why do they have those? Is there some regulation that mandates them? Why do they even have parking spaces at all? Those aren’t mandated. They could have all paved areas, with no landscaping or bushes. They could say, not put cable TV into the apartments, or any other list of amenities. Oh wait, that’s right....

Apartments make investments in amenities in order to make their offerings compelling compared to others! Some have covered parking, pools, parks, etc, in order to get you to rent there. To think that once enough people start asking for car chargers, that they won’t put them in, is (that word again) ridiculous. Since the demand for EV parking will start at the top, with those with $$$$, you can expect that apartment complexes will be interested in serving these individuals.

Or maybe mmd’s apartment complex expects people to be happy with “Running water!”
 
...
Apartments make investments in amenities in order to make their offerings compelling compared to others! Some have covered parking, pools, parks, etc, in order to get you to rent there. To think that once enough people start asking for car chargers, that they won’t put them in, is (that word again) ridiculous. Since the demand for EV parking will start at the top, with those with $$$$, you can expect that apartment complexes will be interested in serving these individuals...
.
Where it is not mandated it is quite common for higher-end MFD's to have charging for all units. In one new building a few blocks from my location in Miami there is a choice between Tesla HPWC, CHAdeMO or CCS for each space for each unit. Some units have three spaces so the unit could have all three. I fully expect that tesl will probably have the new urban Supercharger available for purchase and that building will, like others, undoubtably make those available too.

I have found apartments in Brisbane, Toronto, Vancouver and Nice that have charging for every unit so the one in Miami is swimming with the flow. Those are the only places I have checked, but I imagine this is a worldwide phenomenon. None of those places are cheap.

Soon many places will be required to have charging, as California does.
 
Where it is not mandated it is quite common for higher-end MFD's to have charging for all units. In one new building a few blocks from my location in Miami there is a choice between Tesla HPWC, CHAdeMO or CCS for each space for each unit. Some units have three spaces so the unit could have all three. I fully expect that tesl will probably have the new urban Supercharger available for purchase and that building will, like others, undoubtably make those available too.

I have found apartments in Brisbane, Toronto, Vancouver and Nice that have charging for every unit so the one in Miami is swimming with the flow. Those are the only places I have checked, but I imagine this is a worldwide phenomenon. None of those places are cheap.

Soon many places will be required to have charging, as California does.

NYC has regulation that requires 10% EV charging provision for all new or being modified garages. Just in Manhattan alone more than 200 (!) garages already have dedicated Tesla HPWC...

Let me repeat this word one more time: ridiculous!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.