2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

This will hurt. Not sure if it is paid fossil fuel direct attack or what. I just find it hard to believe that Tesla would display poor workmanship. The M3 I saw around the 26th of September was anything but a typical shining example of Tesla craftsmanship at its finest. I did not drive the car, but everything fit together nicely, and appeared professionally constructed.

Uh oh, an analyst drove a Tesla Model 3 and he found a bunch of problems with it

Also, the video we had recently revealed absolutely no flaws.

Again I question the author of this article associated with Bernstein.

Tesla is at the mercy of unforeseen delays, providing shark bait for the enemy.

So how was that possible? Who had a demo unit available at a Tesla store for them to check out?! I thought the Red Hook closed-door joy ride was for Saturday? Tesla is taking big investors for a joy ride in the Model 3

Edit: I'd put my sceptic's hat on for that Bernstein report.

 

[Starno]

Some people waking up ...

Horseman Capital Management Ltd Acquires 14,000 Shares of Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

 

[mmd]

Some people waking up ...

Horseman Capital Management Ltd Acquires 14,000 Shares of Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

That must hurt, loading up a bunch in Q3. It's all underwater now. They should have woken up 4 months back. not now. I did warn here, for many weeks.

LOL. Mark BS meets his match in Gabe Hoffman. The ARK newbie has no clue what she is talking about. Do these folks pay CNBC to come on TV?
Baron likes it, but will Tesla stall?

 

[Off Shore]

I posted this in the Tesla Semi thread, but it may bear repeating here.

Ark Invest - Nov 8: EV Semi Trucks to Take Share From Traditional Long-Hail Diesel Trucks

Informative here too. The EV semi is not a nail in the ICE coffin, it's a wooden spike.

 

[dc_h]

Not sure if already posted, but sounds like production is ramping up.

Tesla Model 3 Production Could Be 1,600 Per Week, But Probably Not

 

[neroden]

Not sure if already posted, but sounds like production is ramping up.

Tesla Model 3 Production Could Be 1,600 Per Week, But Probably Not

This confirms what we already knew: that they basically have most of the line working fast enough to do 5000 per week, but there are various bottlenecks. It's all about how quickly the bottlenecks can be resolved.

We now know the biggest bottleneck requires replacing "zone 1" and "zone 2" at the Gigafactory pack assembly, which probably requires shipping in new robots with a long lead time.

My guess as to how long that will take to set up would be totally uninformed and completely irresponsible. (3 months?). Anyone who knows more about industrial automation might make a better guess.

We do not know what the second biggest bottleneck is, but most of the other candidates I've heard rumored seem like they'll probably be fixed before this one is fixed. Of course it will turn out that there's another one.

 

[Intl Professor]

I disagree with this. (The concept, not either poster per se).
I’m of the opinion that the extreme in reference, is a head fake to what will eventually be recognized:

Left and Right are socio-political labels between (skipping more nuanced detail for this discussion) individualism and communal preferences in policy and human interaction. A rightfully fluctuating balance between them.

What’s happening today is an insult to both of those (Right and Left) and has no associative relationship to either.

Instead we should focus on the assault of our common values by those ignoring or justifying behaviors in offense to all of us.

We are currently mis-identifying the enemy, and that civil war between Left and Right is precisely what’s providing the space for its existence. It will resolve in the end, but many will be hurt by the inevitable process of this human interaction.

Meanwhile AI machines (created by a tree branch of human evolution) continue to outpace our ability to frame the human problem. Perhaps it’s best they take over the mess after all.

Part of the answer to THAT, and which path serves Humanity best, will be determined by our willingness to accept (current)behavior from those co-opting ‘Right’ for their own advantage, in turn, corrupting ALL of our own morality.

k-

You've really covered the dilemma adroitly and eloquently raised the primary issue.

A few years before he died a colleague used to have drinks and dinner for a few of us including some regulars who were ultra conservative in politics. They would sometimes give me a very rough time for not being committed to rock solid undeniable moral truths. It seemed they were offended because they thought me a moral relativist. I don't ever remember advocating there are no moral actions, just that I was skeptical about those advocating them and we're certainly seeing lots of examples these days—the predator scandals and the dangers of claiming all truth is fake except a particular version of it. Biblical references in support of pedophilia! (Cf. Roy Moore and Alabama supporters.)

It might be interesting to review the Congressional debate when we changed the national motto from "e pluribus unum" to "In God We Trust." Thus divine rights given by God are to be protected, and religious certainty backing up our political position. That has come to prevail over the unity of one and the many. Which is precisely what you imply should be our slogan when you say: "Left and Right are socio-political labels between (skipping more nuanced detail for this discussion) individualism and communal preferences in policy and human interaction."

Maybe our current contretemps could profit from revisiting that debate on our national motto before the machines take over? They are watching and learning even now and I believe in some cases actually being taught how to learn to communicate with each other. We could set an example by doing the same and insisting on that for our other children. Civil communication, I mean, not all truth as Socrates warned.

 

[Runarbt]

This will hurt. Not sure if it is paid fossil fuel direct attack or what. I just find it hard to believe that Tesla would display poor workmanship. The M3 I saw around the 26th of September was anything but a typical shining example of Tesla craftsmanship at its finest. I did not drive the car, but everything fit together nicely, and appeared professionally constructed.

Uh oh, an analyst drove a Tesla Model 3 and he found a bunch of problems with it

Also, the video we had recently revealed absolutely no flaws.

Again I question the author of this article associated with Bernstein.

Tesla is at the mercy of unforeseen delays, providing shark bait for the enemy.

I read this very differently. I think most will see if for what it is - a poor attempt at finding something negative, and a fail.

When they look for anything bad to report, and all they could find was somewhat poor fit and finish (with a microscope?).. then that is a lol moment imo. and "not a bunch of problems" as headline states.

They even admit that "we doubt that it would impact (or even be noticed by) most prospective buyers".

So I do think, this is tiny tiny and even partly in their imagination, as they were hired to dig up negatives about the car.

Very tinny.. need to be more woody to have an impact on Tesla.

 

[ls7corvete]

I read this very differently. I think most will see if for what it is - a poor attempt at finding something negative, and a fail.

When they look for anything bad to report, and all they could find was somewhat poor fit and finish (with a microscope?).. then that is a lol moment imo. and "not a bunch of problems" as headline states.

They even admit that "we doubt that it would impact (or even be noticed by) most prospective buyers".

So I do think, this is tiny tiny and even partly in their imagination, as they were hired to dig up negatives about the car.

Very tinny.. need to be more woody to have an impact on Tesla.

TL;DR

....Clickbait, you confirmed it.

 

[Darren12]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned yet about the 5k per week guidance in march is customer expectations. Many of the model 3 buyers are first time Tesla buyers. Could just be wishful thinking for my own reservation but I would imagine they definitely do not want to change delivery estimates twice, so this 5k guidance could be more realistic than the December 5k per week guidance.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Many of us first time Tesla buyers are more cash flow limited than typical S/X buyers, so a delay can actually be an improvement in that if you're setting aside "loan payments" every month currently, then your available cash on hand for the down payment only gets larger (which in turn lowers your loan payments as the financed amount and thus interest cost is lower), which could be the difference between affording a LR vs SR. I planned on a SR, but with these delays, I might get the LR instead.

 

[Starno]

That must hurt, loading up a bunch in Q3. It's all underwater now. They should have woken up 4 months back. not now. I did warn here, for many weeks.
View attachment 259426
LOL. Mark BS meets his match in Gabe Hoffman. The ARK newbie has no clue what she is talking about. Do these folks pay CNBC to come on TV?
Baron likes it, but will Tesla stall?

That's just an other reason to load up even more shares.
Nothing better than buying at a bargain.

 

[hobbes]

Not sure if already posted, but sounds like production is ramping up.

Tesla Model 3 Production Could Be 1,600 Per Week, But Probably Not

Anecdotal, but still nice to see: Many new sightings including truckloads posted today. Includes VIN #635.

Pictures of production Model 3s

 

[Gerardf]

Ewon needs to layoff all the SolarSHITTY headcounts now that they are waiting for SolarRoof to ramp. SolarSHITTY at the moment is nothing but a cash drain of -$300M per quarter. They could save $1B+ from laying off those SolarSHITTY headcount.

W and L are nor exactly close to each other on keyboards.

May I suggest you refer to Mr. Musk as Elon (not Ewon) and to Solarcity as Solarcity ( leave *sugar* part on those forums where they are more used to such references).

 

[JRP3]

It's just Keef melting down again. Reported, hopefully he'll soon be banned, again.

 

[DragonWatch]

I read this very differently. I think most will see if for what it is - a poor attempt at finding something negative, and a fail.

When they look for anything bad to report, and all they could find was somewhat poor fit and finish (with a microscope?).. then that is a lol moment imo. and "not a bunch of problems" as headline states.

They even admit that "we doubt that it would impact (or even be noticed by) most prospective buyers".

So I do think, this is tiny tiny and even partly in their imagination, as they were hired to dig up negatives about the car.

Very tinny.. need to be more woody to have an impact on Tesla.

Here’s hoping you are correct. I am looking for the real Saturday Joy Ride event for the high rollers. It would be nice if someone in that group would slam by name the one I quoted. A nice counterattack

 

[DragonWatch]

Not sure if already posted, but sounds like production is ramping up.

Tesla Model 3 Production Could Be 1,600 Per Week, But Probably Not

I read the article, and fact that the assembly line is moving is a major improvement from my tour in September. Also, parts were stored in staging areas, big time, but I did not see stamping. Stamping is a big improvement as well.

Elon has a tendency to over state goals, but he also has a big tendency to overshoot delays. Remember 2020 was goal for M3! Oh, we are fighting through the end of 2017, that’s an odd year (17 vs 20). And, I mentioned once before here that while the hell period was slowed/stopped by bottlenecks, at some point based on 3Q17 statements of test runs; I would suggest being prepared for all hell breaking loose once or as the bottlenecks are resolved.

Postponing deliveries aids Tesla in staging parts during the delay period. Parts are most likely held by suppliers that have the storage space, compared to Tesla. Over saturation at Tesla would not bode well for parts being exposed the sun light or moisture, not that it never rains in California, at least according to a favorite sixties song by The Mamas & the Papas.

Also, someone here has access to sales/delivery charts by the month of all EVs across that should give us an early indicator of resolved bottlenecks. We should get more and more reports of burst runs, Also an indicator of improvements as a result of resolved bottlenecks.

I am digging through all the poo looking for my green

 

[Ugliest1]

I am not a working mathematician (unless software counts), but thousands of examples of failure is not the same as proof that it never makes sense. Only one working (counter) example is needed to prove the thesis false.
The examples you provided are excellent and are no doubt best practices for conglomerates.

Clearly you have a strong opinion on this subject. It almost seems like you might be a recently jilted supplier ;-)

I think it may be helpful to more carefully define vertical integration. I presume we all agree that multiple process steps by itself does not qualify as vertical integration. It is also well known that Tesla does in fact have a number component suppliers.
So perhaps a better characterization of the argument is at what percentage of insourced components is appropriate.

Is it fair to assume that your argument is more than zero but a small number can make sense? Or must it be zero?
<SNIP>
Rather than debating "IF vertical integration", would be more productive to discuss/debate "how much insourcing and vertical integration"?

+1,000. I understand @Ichabod's point, but couldn't put together a cogent argument why I disagreed that it *had* to apply to Tesla. Well said. Of course part of the problem we have "out here" is that no one knows the numbers details that Tesla makes its decisions with. We're the blind committee feeling different parts of the elephant. We should watch where we put our hands.

 

[Bobfitz1]

This confirms what we already knew: that they basically have most of the line working fast enough to do 5000 per week, but there are various bottlenecks. It's all about how quickly the bottlenecks can be resolved.

We now know the biggest bottleneck requires replacing "zone 1" and "zone 2" at the Gigafactory pack assembly, which probably requires shipping in new robots with a long lead time.

@neroden your posts are consistently excellent, but what makes you believe new robots would be needed to resolve zone 1 and 2 problems? Likely that reprogramming of existing robots in the zones will be needed, but even if the redesign led to additional robots being needed (no evidence of that I know of) I'd be amazed if Tesla doesn't have a number of them in reserve as spares and for situations where some add'l are needed fast.

 

[3Victoria]

@neroden your posts are consistently excellent, but what makes you believe new robots would be needed to resolve zone 1 and 2 problems? Likely that reprogramming of existing robots in the zones will be needed, but even if the redesign led to additional robots being needed (no evidence of that I know of) I'd be amazed if Tesla doesn't have a number of them in reserve as spares and for situations where some add'l are needed fast.

The CC had comments indicating that it was a software and hardware problem.