Another 3 owner´s experience - read while it lasts (employee) - sounds like what many of you who own a Model S have reported:
TheTeslaLife on Twitter
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DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
You must have blocked my referenced article about the BMW million car recall this last week. BMW owners are racing to Fire the car. Your Fired ~ oops, another one caught fire. BMW is on Tesla’s side here, encouraging online Tesla sales. BMW is having a fire sale. If Tesla had acted like BMW over this amount of time to a point of one million recalls, this blogg would not exist and I’d be out of my inheritance.
Here, read the story ~ the recall may have missed your BMW or. . .
BMW Recalls Roughly a Million Vehicles at Risk of Catching Fire
Maybe it will take less than 3 to 5 years for Tesla to wipe out BMW; especially with BMWs assistance.
Are you getting your stock information from VW?
How about you do the math for me? We know the fires have been happening over years, we know that if the car was in a garage the fire wiped out a lot of personal property, and we know every customer has been inconvenienced over the issue. How many of those disgruntled customers are switching sides due to their dissatisfaction with the product. For every bad mouth there are on average ten lost customers.
Now, add into your Lutz equation and it probably equates to Tesla
If you are stating things, at least do a better job than me, please Did you forget Lutz says all auto manufacturers are going away including BMW!
Is BMW going to offer their own insurance, like Tesla? I cannot imagine BMW auto insurance going down after that article and reported fires. Can you?
Do the numbers Please
Here, read the story ~ the recall may have missed your BMW or. . .
BMW Recalls Roughly a Million Vehicles at Risk of Catching Fire
Maybe it will take less than 3 to 5 years for Tesla to wipe out BMW; especially with BMWs assistance.
Are you getting your stock information from VW?
How about you do the math for me? We know the fires have been happening over years, we know that if the car was in a garage the fire wiped out a lot of personal property, and we know every customer has been inconvenienced over the issue. How many of those disgruntled customers are switching sides due to their dissatisfaction with the product. For every bad mouth there are on average ten lost customers.
Now, add into your Lutz equation and it probably equates to Tesla
If you are stating things, at least do a better job than me, please Did you forget Lutz says all auto manufacturers are going away including BMW!Is BMW going to offer their own insurance, like Tesla? I cannot imagine BMW auto insurance going down after that article and reported fires. Can you?
Do the numbers
Please
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
This will help.
Billionaire Ron Baron still believes he can make 20 times his money on Tesla
Ron is in the ozone layer of investor, compared to my Mom and Pop investing
Billionaire Ron Baron still believes he can make 20 times his money on Tesla
Ron is in the ozone layer of investor, compared to my Mom and Pop investing
Elon Musk on Twitter
Tesla Semi Truck unveil to be webcast live on Thursday at 8pm! This will blow your mind clear out of your skull and into an alternate dimension. Just need to find my portal gun ...
Tesla Semi Truck unveil to be webcast live on Thursday at 8pm! This will blow your mind clear out of your skull and into an alternate dimension. Just need to find my portal gun ...
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I think from what Elon and the ER letter said that:
1. That they do not have a lot of confidence in the timing for your "fix 2".
2. Quote from the Q3 ER letter (they have other hurdles to overcome before they hit even 1k per week):
Several manufacturing lines, such as drive unit, seat assembly, paint shop and stamping, have demonstrated a manufacturing ability in excess of 1,000 units per week during burst builds of short duration. Other lines, such as battery pack assembly, body shop welding and final vehicle assembly, have demonstrated burst builds of about 500 units per week and are ramping up quickly.
3. This might superficially resemble the X ramp but it's going unfold differently. With the X ramp they were struggling to build cars without problems (remember Elon's tweet that they had [finally!] built one X without any issues). Now they are struggling to build the line to make 100's and 1,000's per week. It's probably going to be a bumpy road for the SP until Dec-April (numbers) or worst case July-September (numbers - unlikely IMO but for options I believe that September is safe) but when it production does take off it will probably surprise the market and skeptical TMC Investors Forum Members who are expecting another MX debacle.
This will also impact the Y ramp (more buying opportunities
).
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Any news on weekend NY M3 event?
if event is for another round of cap raise .. than what could it be for ? Given end of 3Q cash balance reported was 3.5B, I think that would be sufficient for current operations.
Given that we have a Semi event, if there is a raise, could it be to expedite the next GF along with Semi and MY?
Demoing the M3 so just to placate skecptics, to show them that they are no issues ..
if event is for another round of cap raise .. than what could it be for ? Given end of 3Q cash balance reported was 3.5B, I think that would be sufficient for current operations.
Given that we have a Semi event, if there is a raise, could it be to expedite the next GF along with Semi and MY?
Demoing the M3 so just to placate skecptics, to show them that they are no issues ..
would you guys for once just recognize the scale difference between Tesla and the rest of the auto industry?... 1m cars sounds like a huge number to you because you live in the world of Tesla... 1m cars is jack SUGAR when it comes to the auto industry... there are a billion plus cars on the roads... BMW alone has anywhere from 20 to 40 MILLION cars on the road at any given time...You must have blocked my referenced article about the BMW million car recall this last week. BMW owners are racing to Fire the car. Your Fired ~ oops, another one caught fire. BMW is on Tesla’s side here, encouraging online Tesla sales. BMW is having a fire sale. If Tesla had acted like BMW over this amount of time to a point of one million recalls, this blogg would not exist and I’d be out of my inheritance.
Here, read the story ~ the recall may have missed your BMW or. . .
BMW Recalls Roughly a Million Vehicles at Risk of Catching Fire
Maybe it will take less than 3 to 5 years for Tesla to wipe out BMW; especially with BMWs assistance.
Are you getting your stock information from VW?
How about you do the math for me? We know the fires have been happening over years, we know that if the car was in a garage the fire wiped out a lot of personal property, and we know every customer has been inconvenienced over the issue. How many of those disgruntled customers are switching sides due to their dissatisfaction with the product. For every bad mouth there are on average ten lost customers.
Now, add into your Lutz equation and it probably equates to Tesla
Is BMW going to offer their own insurance, like Tesla? I cannot imagine BMW auto insurance going down after that article and reported fires. Can you?
Do the numbers
this 1m recall you're using as a reference to disaster is the equivalent of Tesla recalling 10k cars...
Tesla is an extremely minor factor in the larger industry... less than 0.2% of the current annual sales... and IF they scale up... they will experience large scale recalls... reduced GMs due to competition... scandals... disappointment... and everything else the REAL auto companies experience.
Tesla does not exist in utopia... they exist in the real world... and at scale... will not be like you think they are today.
(no... my car was not part of the recall)
I think there are probably more than one production bottlenecks. These issues are being solved/fine tuned in parallel, not that they add to the delay in a cumulative fashion. The long pole by far is the battery pack production, which will be solved. Building automation system takes time but it is not that complicated. I am cautiously optimistic about Model 3's production ramp.
In 2016, the Model X door issue was an order of magnitude more difficult and more time consuming to fix. First of all, to find a good engineering solution was super hard, second, changing the stamping for the FWD fix was very time consuming.
In 2016, the Model X door issue was an order of magnitude more difficult and more time consuming to fix. First of all, to find a good engineering solution was super hard, second, changing the stamping for the FWD fix was very time consuming.
Tesla must maintain a cash balance of a critical level relative to accounts payable and other factors... $3.5b does not mean they can spend $3b and then raise capital... they're burning $1b+ per quarter... and it takes time to raise capital... so if they burn another quarter's worth of that $3.5b... then they'll be less than one quarter away from the critical level... and what will they do then? make cars?... they will need to raise capital anywhere from now to Feb in order to maintain reasonable cash levels for a company that spends like it does and not be considered just about to fold.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Well, I spend about half my time in Honda land, so I am well aware of the current difference in scale between a boutique like Tesla and an established mass manufacturer like Honda.
While that is true, consider that in order to do well, Tesla only has to capture a % of the most profitable high margin segments in the auto industry. I also do not believe that Tesla needs or wants to destroy all other car makers. Just like there is no need for Apple to seek to destroy LG and HTC. The marketplace is big and varied enough for many players to coexist and compete.
1M cars may or may not be a significant number depending on context. Globally, 1M might not be so big. Within USDM, anyone selling 1M units is a substantial player. A fairly mainstream company like American Honda (which includes the Acura division) sold something like 1.6M vehicles in the U.S. last year.
no... Tesla does not just have to do well... they have to EXCEED a % of "the most profitable high margin segments"... if that's all they did... then the market cap would not move in 3 to 5 years... because THAT'S ALREADY BAKED IN... if THAT'S ALL THEY DID...
the current market cap is betting that Tesla not only overtakes BMW... but it also takes out Toyota... that's if you expect the SP to rise from here... and they're already having a hard time scaling to 5k/week... Toyota delivers 200,000 per week.
TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND PER WEEK.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Maybe Apple didn't directly destroy HTC, but they took all the high margin customers, and left a tiny pool of $ to be made, and forced Samsung to kill HTC. Similar thing will happen in auto, Tesla won't kill Honda, but Toyota probably will when their Camery/Prius sales get squeezed by the M3.
No one knows what is "baked in". Tesla should have a brutal Q4. M3 production will be low, and they seem to equipment payables in north of 2 billion. Is that baked in? It's not new news.
How does Tesla Semi affect SP?
sundaymorning
Active Member
Guys. This is a big week for tesla and tsla. If you see any crazy short attacks, lawsuits or folks on here posting Long and/or silly posts - just take it with a grain of salt. They have to work a bit harder this week to keep the negative sentiment burning
Can you share your total installed cost of your system and the details of your calculation of the pay back period. TIA
"No one knows what is "baked in""
not true... TSLA is valued nearly the same as BMW and was greater than recently.
"How does Tesla Semi affect SP?"
right now it's worthless and is probably going to emphasize the hype that exists in this... all focus is on the M3... and whether or not they will a) be able to actually deliver and b) compete with BMW...
right now... everything is in question... and pumping distractions to the M3 is a negative.
Note: I am starting to ignore people who respond to trolls, just to keep the signal noise high.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I know you don't care but this response is for those who do. It's not the total number of cars that matters as much as it is the market in which those cars are behind sold and the competition they are displacing. In the US, the 7 series and S class Mercedes have been decimated by the model S which now has roughly 40% share of the large luxury sedan market. I shouldn't need to explain this but those vehicles are the most profitable that MB and BMW make. The next most profitable are the larger SUVs which are being assaulted by the model X. Tesla cannot sell cars in every class because they are production constrained as they build out capacity, so they smartly target the most profitable classes first and then work down from the top. This top down approach has caused an almost instantaneous response from VW, BMW and Daimler. It was enough to threaten there top 3-4 models in terms of margin to get them to commit to investing a combined $100B in EVs. But how much market share are they going to take from Tesla that has 1-2%? How much from each other and their own profitable models? If I'm a die hard BMW guy I'm only going to buy an EV if it's a BMW. So BMW will be converting loyal profitable ICE customers to EV customers at a massive loss while they build out capacity. Those companies must invest in compete drive train and battery production. But only if they actually want to sell them. They are probably better off just seeding market share to model 3 because they really have no ability to match it, even with $100B investment. How do I know this? Because if they could do it, they would have done it rather then sitting in their hands until they were forced to do it. If they could make a better car, it would already exist for the exact reasons the op alludes to, they are huge and powerful companies with massive amounts of money. But just like the old adage that money can't buy you love, it also can't buy you a clue. It they could do it, they wouldn't have allowed Tesla to consume 40% of the large luxury sedan market. They have no response. You would know if they did, because you would see 10GWh battery factories opening soon. They just flat out cannot match Tesla without the batteries. It's like saying that GM makes really good cars so it would be easy for them to make really good helocopters because both have motors. Those companies are full of mechanical geniuses who couldn't build you an EV if they had to save their own lives. It's just completely foreign to them. The motors are simple but everything else requires a ton of testing and a long history of working with the tech. There just are not armies of EV engineers with experience running around. That's why ex Tesla people are so chased.
The model 3 ramp will happen soon enough to cause a tremendous amount of pain to those Germain luxury brands. Yes BMW will still sell a lot of Mini Coopers, but they are going to be absolutely mauled in the mid and small lux sedan market. I think they already have been. And what do they get when they finally invest billions in EVs? They can seed the rest of their ICE market share to their EV brands at massive losses (think GM bolt losses). Can you imagine how painful it will be for BMW, Daimler and VW with no fed tax credit in the US? They waited to long, or was it lack of ability? I still can't wait to see who is going to sell the cars for them, because their dealers won't willing sell them. They will need to be incentivized or strong-armed somehow. 2019/2020 is going to be a very entertaining time.
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