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this is what Ron Barron thinks:
Ron Baron says Tesla stock will be $1000 by 2020s
he thinks Tesla will have $70b in revenues with $10b in profits on 1m cars/year
first... 1m cars per year is not $70b in revenues... it's $54b with the best case scenario:
800,000 * 45,000 + 200,000 * 90000 = 54,000,000,000
worst case scenario it's:
900,000*40,000 + 100,000 * 80,000 = 44,000,000,000
but how/where are they going to produce 1m cars? Freemont?... the 1m/year crap came from Elon's 500k in 2018/1m in 2020 quotes last year.... how'd that pan out?
let's go with 200k in 2018... 350k in 2019.... 500k in 2020:
so that's something like:
350,000 * 45,000 + 150,000 * 85,000 = 28,500,000,000
so if Ron Barron thinks TSLA should be valued at $1000 per share in 2020 on $70b... then Ron Barron thinks TSLA should be valued at $400 per share on $28.5b...
that's a 3% gain from the recent high...
and that doesn't include execution risks.
and BTW... BMW is valued at ~$60b (TSLA @ $350) w/ $100B+ in revenues.
don't get me started on ARK.
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
And neither are the rest of us, nor any new information.
we didnt hit 350 last week, no big deal. this is why it gives me superior confidence that tesla will hit 350 THIS WEEK. 200% confidence boost this week vs 110% last week. too much good news piling up recently from left and right
we must believe in Elon MusT
we must believe in Elon MusT
You should start by getting your BMW 3 fixed for the fire recall. We would all hate to see more of your asset go up in smoke.
erthquake
Active Member
He doesn't own stock. He'll just try to sue after he's ruined by his short position. Maybe he, Chanos and the other shorts can share a trash can fire together.
tsla had a diarrhea last week. this week will be completely different. 350 target this week
i am going to make truckload of $$
i am going to make truckload of $$
First of all, he said 2020’s.
Also, since you said and then calculated best case scenario and came out with 54 billion in revenue. I think to be even slightly honest calculating “best case scenario” you would have to include TE and TS. As well as Tesla pick ups with an ASP of around 70k, have you seen the price of pickups these days? There is also the model Y and the next gen roadster which might have an ASP of 150k+.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Your model assumes that Tesla derives revenue from automotive hardware only. Tesla Energy should be factored in somehow. Autonomous shared services is a wild card that I'm not entirely clear how to account.
Here's my very rough model, followed by numerous caveats:
(1) Today's stock price in late 2017.
Investors looking 2 years ahead (to late 2019):
100k Model S and X at ASP of 100k = 10B revenue
400k Model 3 at ASP of 42.5k = 17B revenue
Tesla Energy = 3B revenue. This is a wild guess.
Total expected 30B in revenue. If Tesla were to stop growing at this point and stabilize at 10% net margin, 3B net * 20 P/E (higher than pure automotive, lower than pure tech), 60B market cap, target of $365/share in late 2017
(2) Stock Price in late 2019
Investors looking 2 years ahead (to late 2021)
100k Model S and X, ASP of 100k = 10B revenue
900k Model 3 and Model Y, ASP of 45.5k, based on 40%/60% 3/Y mix, with Model 3 ASP at 42.5k, Model Y ASP at 47.5k. = 40.95B revenue
Tesla Energy = 5B revenue
Total expected 56B in revenue by 2021. If Tesla were to stop growing at this point and stabilize at 10% net margin, 5.6B net * 20 P/E (higher than pure automotive, lower than pure tech), 112B market cap, target of $678/share in late 2019.
(3) Stock Price in late 2021
investors looking 2 years ahead (to late 2023)
100k Model S and X, ASP of 100k = 10B revenue
1900k Model 3 and Model Y, ASP of 45.5k, based on 40%/60% 3/Y mix, with Model 3 ASP at 42.5k, Model Y ASP at 47.5k. = 86.45B revenue
Tesla Energy = 10B revenue
Total expected 106B.45 in revenue by 2023. If Tesla were to stop growing at this point and stabilize at 10% net margin, 10.6B net * 20 P/E (higher than pure automotive, lower than pure tech), 212B market cap, target of $1284/share in late 2021.
As long as Tesla continues to grow, market participants may continue to look ahead and project where the revenue growth will lead.
BMW's market cap does not grow possibly because (1) it's revenue trajectory is much shallower, despite high relative level (2) it's ICE business is under threat, and its future EV plans make it look behind not just Tesla, but VAG and Daimler as well (3) Business is limited mostly to automobiles.
Caveats:
ASPs are difficult to predict, due to changing customer tastes, competition, and macro conditions.
Tesla Energy figures are based on roughly doubling installation contracts every year. Difficult to predict.
Probable net margins are difficult to predict, because we don't know how successful Tesla will be at reducing service and delivery costs.
Regulatory and Legal: building new factories means potential for red tape. Litigation is always a possibility (e.g. Takata)
Autonomous vehicle services not accounted for in this model
Trucks are not accounted for in this model.
Black Swan events (Earthquakes, wars, severe macro downturns) are not accounted for in this model.
Unforeseen applications in technology are not accounted for.
Unforeseen obsolescence of technology is not accounted for.
Dilution from capital raises is not accounted for.
There are probably many other factors not accounted for.
The future is difficult to predict. The one thing I am confident in, is that both my fuzzy model and your model, will likely prove incorrect, and probably in surprising ways.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Newcomers and incumbents hopefully will build good EVs profitably, they might also be able to wind down "old school" car production without too much trouble while also securing enough battery supply. But even if every incumbent is able to do this and several new ones pop up, Tesla is still fine unless they stop making good cars. It's not really about cornering the market, it's about doing a good job with whatever piece of the pie they go after. The other thing to consider is its not just a car company anymore, by 2020 they could have as much or more revenue from batteries, solar, or ? that we don't even know about yet.
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sundaymorning
Active Member
I found this golden nugget from one of the Model 3 thread. The poster indicated that he/she saw the M3 line moving for the first time last night and this is how it looks like.
The poster last indicated in October 2017 that:
“This is visible from the Fremont factory supercharger. So anyone planning to charge there can check it out.”
During October the line appears to be idle, but now it’s moving pretty nicely. The poster also indicated that this is the M3 line.
Glimpse of M3 Assemble Line?
The poster last indicated in October 2017 that:
“This is visible from the Fremont factory supercharger. So anyone planning to charge there can check it out.”
During October the line appears to be idle, but now it’s moving pretty nicely. The poster also indicated that this is the M3 line.
Glimpse of M3 Assemble Line?
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sundaymorning
Active Member
you think for some reason that TSLA will continue to trade at fan-boy ratios of 2x P/S and some ridiculous book value?... you think Tesla will somehow get 10% net when the highest in the scaled out auto sector is 7.5%?... why, because they use robots?
GM Hooking 30,000 Robots to Internet to Keep Factories Humming
how about another outcome... it's late 2018... Tesla spits out 120k M3s and 80k MS/MX... prices are reduced because tax incentives are no longer available... raw material prices rise... GMs are nowhere near 25% to 30% as promised... cash flows are not substantial enough to expand rapidly... Freemont factory is limited to ~500k/year... Chinese plant expected to come online in 2022 allowing for 1m... difficulties of being an auto manufacturer materialize... and...
TSLA trades w/ a P/S of 0.7 by 2019... which is high for an auto company... resulting in an SP of approximately $120.
remember... first Elon says it's ahead of schedule... then he says making cars is hard... first they say they don't need another cap raise... then they do that once or twice a year every year... first they say 100k to 200k in 2017... then they deliver less than 5k for the year...
my assumptions are realistic... yours are fantastic.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Nothing new in the review, but the sentiment is clearly changing regarding Tesla.
The Tesla Model S P100D is still the coolest car you can buy
Final Thoughts
If you want a big sedan to get you to work, a German luxury barge is probably better for you in almost every way. The money you save on gas doesn't come near to offsetting the price premium of the Tesla for similar equipment.
But if you go that route, you're driving something with an expiration date. The big, V8 sedans are on their way out. The Tesla Model S is the future, with its minimalism and it's upgradability and touch screen. It's the new age of luxury, and it feels different for it.
No gasoline here
Something about driving a gas car after the Tesla felt old. In the Tesla you don't start the car, you get in and put it in gear. It's ready when you are. Pushing a button or — gasp — turning a key feels barbarian. Waiting for a transmission to shift so you can pass feels idiotic, the Tesla has power always. Not being able to set the climate control from an app seems tremendously archaic, and driver assistance systems that aren't Autopilot seem a bit dimwitted.
And that's the power of the Model S. Every logical fact should point you far away from it. Dozens of little things about it probably will annoy you. But there's something about it that makes you despise the old way. It's the reason that everyone who buys one says they'll never buy anything else. From the moment you sit in it, you know you're driving the beginning of something better. It's not perfect, it may not even make sense. But if nothing else, the Tesla Model S is the start of something new and exciting. I can't help but love it for that.
Ratings
Exterior: 5
Interior: 2
Driving Experience: 5
Value: 3
Overall: 4
The Tesla Model S P100D is still the coolest car you can buy
Final Thoughts
If you want a big sedan to get you to work, a German luxury barge is probably better for you in almost every way. The money you save on gas doesn't come near to offsetting the price premium of the Tesla for similar equipment.
But if you go that route, you're driving something with an expiration date. The big, V8 sedans are on their way out. The Tesla Model S is the future, with its minimalism and it's upgradability and touch screen. It's the new age of luxury, and it feels different for it.
No gasoline here
Something about driving a gas car after the Tesla felt old. In the Tesla you don't start the car, you get in and put it in gear. It's ready when you are. Pushing a button or — gasp — turning a key feels barbarian. Waiting for a transmission to shift so you can pass feels idiotic, the Tesla has power always. Not being able to set the climate control from an app seems tremendously archaic, and driver assistance systems that aren't Autopilot seem a bit dimwitted.
And that's the power of the Model S. Every logical fact should point you far away from it. Dozens of little things about it probably will annoy you. But there's something about it that makes you despise the old way. It's the reason that everyone who buys one says they'll never buy anything else. From the moment you sit in it, you know you're driving the beginning of something better. It's not perfect, it may not even make sense. But if nothing else, the Tesla Model S is the start of something new and exciting. I can't help but love it for that.
Ratings
Exterior: 5
Interior: 2
Driving Experience: 5
Value: 3
Overall: 4
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Robot installations in of themselves don’t mean anything. It is possible that Tesla’s manufacturing lines will extract efficiencies that other carmakers don’t have. People may laugh at the “alien dreadnought” term, but Tesla’s ambition isn’t limited to building and delivering cars in the same way as others.
Your scenario is possible, though it still doesn’t take into account Energy products.
Finally, with regards to “realistic”, the flip side of that is to say that your view is too grounded in conventional wisdom. Conventional wisdom has thus far worked poorly as a predictor of Tesla’s growth. 10 years ago I would never have guessed that Tesla even survived to 2017.
Ten years ago it as 2007.
Conventional wisdom at that time was : electric cars are nonsense.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Half the posts on this page are from myusername or responses to him. He is derailing the thread from valid discussion topics. Please try not to engage with him to such a degree.
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