2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Reciprocity]

dude... look:

BMW:
all about cars: BMW Global Sales By Model : 2016 (Chart)

so what are you talking about when you say "Those 5 models are only roughly 400,000 per year in sales"?

the 3 series alone was 400k+ in 2016... so what are you talking about?... are you seriously just talking about US sales numbers?

The specific sales volumes by model are not the point, the percentages and margins are what matters. Can you at least agree that a 7-Series has more margin then a mini cooper? The Model S is just an example of the future where Tesla moves into a segment and dominates. I don't have all day to research specific sales numbers to counter FUD arguments. The fact is that BMW sells 2 million cars a year and Tesla is offering competitive products from the top down based on margin. Meaning, highest margin products first. Those top models account for a significant percent of BMW's profits. Same goes for Daimler and Audi/Porsche (VW). Even though you cant seem to acknowledge it, those companies sure have by making it known they are investing $100B cumulatively. Is that "Cash Burn" or is it an investment?

 

[jackdillio]

haha tsla is flyin high.. this week is da week where tsla will hit $$350$$ mark. im goin to make truckloads of $$

once it goes up, it aint stopping

 

[Skryll]

Thanks. That's impressive for a system at your latitude. What is your avoided cost of a kwh?

On ours its a 10kW system paying for itself in less than 7 years, the 7 years was an estimate from $2400/year cost in california (PG&E prices, hot summers). After replacing both cars with electric payback is probably earlier. In either case a winner, panel warranty 25 years.

 

[Yuri_G]

I wanted to get to the true reason myusername is so bearish on TSLA. It’s very clear to me now that they think this way because (1) their thought pattern is programmatic like software and discrete, and (2) intolerance for uncertainty. Note that I acknowledge the possibility of bad outcomes for Tesla as a company, while myusername completely discounts any possiblility of a good outcome.

Basically, they follow rigid rules like a software problem. Input X must result in output Y, like a Finite State Machine taking input from a tape. The problem with thinking like this is the rules can change.

In 1997, how many people thought that Internet mail order from Amazon could compete against Walmart?

That and he's a BMW fanboy. Basically about to witness his baby get dismantled over the coming years. I'd be worried, too.

 

[jackdillio]

past ------------------------future
ice --------------------------ev
flip phone------------------ smartphone
brick and mortar ---------- internet commerce
gas/coal --------------------- solar/electricity
missile ----------------------- laser/space weapon
cd/dvd store------------------online movie rental

do you want to invest in the past or a future prospect with unlimited potential. most big name companies of the PAST have already hit their threshold in market cap.

 

[JRP3]

I wanted to get to the true reason myusername is so bearish on TSLA. It’s very clear to me now that they think this way because (1) their thought pattern is programmatic like software and discrete, and (2) intolerance for uncertainty. Note that I acknowledge the possibility of bad outcomes for Tesla as a company, while myusername completely discounts any possiblility of a good outcome.

Wasn't all that obvious from the beginning? I don't claim any special powers of insight but MUN joined my sparsely populated ignore list early on and none of the ongoing debates with him have made me question that decision. I am mystified as to why a number of members I respect, including yourself, still engage with him. I guess my only hope is eventually the reality of Tesla will beat him into submission and he'll slink away back to his cave. Maybe Elon will melt his brain on Thursday

 

[Skryll]

On ours its a 10kW system paying for itself in less than 7 years, the 7 years was an estimate from $2400/year cost in california (PG&E prices, hot summers). After replacing both cars with electric payback is probably earlier. In either case a winner, panel warranty 25 years.

I guess that didn't quite answer the question: The $2400/year were around $0.30/kWh on the E1 tiered default plan. We did switch to the E6 and after that to EV-A plan which is a time of use plan with $0.46 peak, (3pm to 7pm), $0.25 mid-peak ($7am to 3pm, 7pm to 11pm) and $0.12 otherwise.

We now charge at night since that is the cheapest. Net-metering makes it so that we get more than what we produce since it is accounted for at $0.25 to $0.46, so we get credited roughly $0.30 since we start producing about 8am and stop producing about 8pm in the summer, peaking around noon. about 60kWh/day in the summer, 20kWh/day in the winter.

 

[tander]

I...
In 1997, how many people thought that Internet mail order from Amazon could compete against Walmart?

Great comparison. Even five years ago how many people thought Tesla would be competing with trucking companies or self driving taxis?

 

[Bobfitz1]

They are probably better off just seeding market share to model 3 because they really have no ability to match it, even with $100B investment. How do I know this? Because if they could do it, they would have done it rather then sitting in their hands until they were forced to do it. If they could make a better car, it would already exist for the exact reasons the op alludes to, they are huge and powerful companies with massive amounts of money.

@Reciprocity, Excellent reply to the usual no nothing FUD from mylosername. My only quibble (and my facts may be wrong) is whether BMW, Daimler, etc. genuinely have massive amounts of money. One of the best TMC contributors made the point some time ago that the balance sheets of most ICE manufacturers include plenty of debt. Enough debt that if their profits are reduced substantially some of the weaker ones could go down. If this is true, then access to $100 billion in credit is not the same as that group having $100B on hand to invest, as Apple does. Your points on the ICE makers having no answers to stem their high end bleeding to Tesla is even more true when we factor in that announcing you 'plan' to invest X billions over the next 10 years isn't the same as having done so now or the next couple of years. If their balance sheets are vulnerable, then they 'hope' to invest that much. As I learned from a lady exec where I used to work, who had worked her way up from next to nothing, Hope is not a Plan.

 

[zdriver]

Alex Roy did a nice analysis of Bob Lutz's latest article.

Is the Entire Car Industry Really Doomed?

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Model 3 Depositors Staying Put as Wait in Line Lengthens

 

[Reciprocity]

@Reciprocity, Excellent reply to the usual no nothing FUD from mylosername. My only quibble (and my facts may be wrong) is whether BMW, Daimler, etc. genuinely have massive amounts of money. One of the best TMC contributors made the point some time ago that the balance sheets of most ICE manufacturers include plenty of debt. Enough debt that if their profits are reduced substantially some of the weaker ones could go down. If this is true, then access to $100 billion in credit is not the same as that group having $100B on hand to invest, as Apple does. Your points on the ICE makers having no answers to stem their high end bleeding to Tesla is even more true when we factor in that announcing you 'plan' to invest X billions over the next 10 years isn't the same as having done so now or the next couple of years. If their balance sheets are vulnerable, then they 'hope' to invest that much. As I learned from a lady exec where I used to work, who had worked her way up from next to nothing, Hope is not a Plan.

My goal wasnt to dig into competitve companies balance sheets, just wanted to call out a couple of interesting issues they face. The idea that the competition has everything to lose and very little to gain with massive "cash burn" or as us Tesla longs say.. Capital Investments. What I mean by little to gain and all to lose, is that they will trade high margin sales for negative margin sales for a prolonged period of time, like a decade. And what's the gain? They get to keep some of their market share or maybe it's already too little too late. Add in the fact that they might not have access to fed tax credits in the US and their dealership model wants nothing to do with EVs and it's illegal to sell direct. They have some complex and serious issues with very little upside beyond survival.

My question for shorts is whether it's "cash burn" when BMW or Daimler invest billions or just when Tesla does it?

 

[Skryll]

So with tesla now owning and integration two robot / automation makers, where do we consider the threat from Jia Yueting competing with tesla via Le Eco (Lucid Air Electric car) company and Midea group (Kuka robot company recently acquired from Germany) to stand in terms of the war for automation ?

 

[Starno]

So with tesla now owning and integration two robot / automation makers, where do we consider the threat from Jia Yueting competing with tesla via Le Eco (Lucid Air Electric car) company and Midea group (Kuka robot company recently acquired from Germany) to stand in terms of the war for automation ?

There is something to take into consideration when evaluating an innovation competition : the team behind + culture.

Tesla has the strongest team among the automakers industries, and one of the strongest of all the companies in the world. Straight PhD HEROES from Stanford, MIT, Carnegie Mellon etc.

Not sure Lucid has the kind of calibre and culture.

 

[Quesder]

I found this golden nugget from one of the Model 3 thread. The poster indicated that he/she saw the M3 line moving for the first time last night and this is how it looks like.

The poster last indicated in October 2017 that:

“This is visible from the Fremont factory supercharger. So anyone planning to charge there can check it out.”

During October the line appears to be idle, but now it’s moving pretty nicely. The poster also indicated that this is the M3 line.

Glimpse of M3 Assemble Line?

man, is this the reason that TSLA is UP today? Don't think it was Elon's twitt

 

[3Victoria]

Alex Roy did a nice analysis of Bob Lutz's latest article.

Is the Entire Car Industry Really Doomed?

He poo-poo'd Tipping Point. However, I think he is underestimating the effect that, soon, owners will realize that buying a new ICE may leave them near worthless a few years later -- so, that will drive change. The thing that will slow the change-over likely will be the relatively poor availability of EVs. But demand begets supply. Used vehicles will exist, but at reduced prices, and the possibility of their usefulness reduced by regulations and bans from cities, and likely from social pressure not to pollute.

 

[Menifeer]

And the first automakers to secure such supplies, other than Tesla, are all Chinese. BYD and some of the others (I'm still not sure which of the others are in the lead). The old-line (non-Chinese) car makers are in a really poor position though I'm sure some will survive.

Just because we haven't read about plans by other manufacturers to build battery factories doesn't mean those companies aren't working on them. Battery manufacturers will recognize the coming demand and build facilities even if the auto companies don't.

Mercedes has already announced plans:

Mercedes-Benz will spend $1 billion to build electric vehicles in the US

 

[erthquake]

Just because we haven't read about plans by other manufacturers to build battery factories doesn't mean those companies aren't working on them. Battery manufacturers will recognize the coming demand and build facilities even if the auto companies don't.

Mercedes has already announced plans:

Mercedes-Benz will spend $1 billion to build electric vehicles in the US

I disagree. ICE companies are taking every opportunity they get to put out statements of EV-related plans. It's a form of PR/advertising/green washing. You can bet your *gas* they'd making even loftier statements and claims if something real was actually in the works.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Just because we haven't read about plans by other manufacturers to build battery factories doesn't mean those companies aren't working on them. Battery manufacturers will recognize the coming demand and build facilities even if the auto companies don't.

Mercedes has already announced plans:

Mercedes-Benz will spend $1 billion to build electric vehicles in the US

You forgot that they are planning to meet to form a committee...

 

[RobStark]

He poo-poo'd Tipping Point. However, I think he is underestimating the effect that, soon, owners will realize that buying a new ICE may leave them near worthless a few years later -- so, that will drive change. The thing that will slow the change-over likely will be the relatively poor availability of EVs. But demand begets supply. Used vehicles will exist, but at reduced prices, and the possibility of their usefulness reduced by regulations and bans from cities, and likely from social pressure not to pollute.

He isn't poo-pooing the transition from ICEv to BEV.

But the full transition from Level 2 autonomous cars to Level 5.