Cool! One idea: Plot the VINs registered with NHTSA in another color in the same graph. Over time, as production per car goes quicker, the two curves should move closer together. Will take a while (a few months I guess) to have enough data points to see this trend.
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Cool! One idea: Plot the VINs registered with NHTSA in another color in the same graph. Over time, as production per car goes quicker, the two curves should move closer together. Will take a while (a few months I guess) to have enough data points to see this trend.
Electrifying
Member
I searched Facebook there's no such person as Allan Pep who published such a post. I'd rather believe this is true but can you post the actual Facebook post link?
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
No, but the link i provided has a picture. Got the info from the other thread here--just passing it on.
Edit: I did find this:
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That photo looks fake.
Which makes me suspicious that the 1910 vin is photoshopped, too.
Agree with you on "fake" -- how someone would think that a still-frame-photo (like this) wouldn't arouse suspicion is beyond me.
Such a simple question: Why wouldn't the person simply post a snippet video?
Simple answer: Because it isn't reality.
Such a simple question: Why wouldn't the person simply post a snippet video?
Simple answer: Because it isn't reality.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I've been using Photoshop both professionally and as a hobby for 20 years. I looked at both pictures up-close. They both are heavy in compression artifacts, but do not see any evidence of Photoshopping.
Why are you so suspicious of it? It's been over a week since we saw 11xx VINS, so 19XX is not unreasonable...
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Sorry this is totally wrong. Demand for utility storage over the next decade or so in the U.S. alone has recently been estimated as equivalent to more than 2000 of the S Australian battery project. Energy producers and utility companies care about making money, not so much about how they do it. That is why a huge amount of wind power has been built in north Texas and why solar PV is on an exponential upward curve. These things are driven by the dropping costs changing the economics of what they use.
I agree with all points except the last. I'm doubtful that building factories the size of GF1 ever becomes relatively easy. Especially as to how long they take from shovel in ground to reach half of planned capacity. This time may be half what GF1 has taken for all the valid reasons members have long posted.
If you had read and understood it, you wouldn't be so confused on the time frame. Nothing about the thought experiment posting spoke about 2017 and 2018! It speaks to 2020 and 2021, when M3 may reach 750K and both MY and Semi will be ramping up to volume.
The immediate in "Tesla can make more immediate profit using cells for M3/MY than Semi" doesn't mean this year or next, it means immediate profit as profit from the sale of the vehicles. I.e. excludes for the discussion any potential future profits from selling electricity to companies operating Semis.
Agree with all points, just not sure if Congressional Republicans will ever man/woman up to do what is best for the country rather than themselves and their billionaires. Back in 2009 when Obama took office, these patriots gathered behind closed doors and agreed they would oppose anything Obama might try to do, so he could not claim to have made any progress. They did this only months after the U.S.
came razor close to a financial collapse that would have rivaled the Great Depression. After learning this I've regarded all but a handful as essentially traitors to their own country, as they put their power and regaining it above it's urgent needs to pull out of the mess.
erthquake
Active Member
It looks like Sen. Flake added an ammendment to the Senate tax bill last night to end the EV credit at he end of this month.
Does anyone know if tonight's Senate tax bill kept the EV credit? • r/teslamotors
Both Senate and House versions have ended the credit. It looks all but gone unless something dramatic happens to POTUS before the bill is passed.
Does anyone know if tonight's Senate tax bill kept the EV credit? • r/teslamotors
Both Senate and House versions have ended the credit. It looks all but gone unless something dramatic happens to POTUS before the bill is passed.
Yep. Gone.
On the bright side - it’s gone for everybody and tesla just had a few more months to a year to benefit from it. I don’t think there will be a mass cancellation of orders so demand should still be there. Also - and this is a bigger plus for the quarter - tesla just guaranteed a sell out of every single car they can deliver this year. I bet they will allocate all cars to us vs international given this. Should bode well for quarter and margins since it looks like mostly 100ds are in stock
On the bright side - it’s gone for everybody and tesla just had a few more months to a year to benefit from it. I don’t think there will be a mass cancellation of orders so demand should still be there. Also - and this is a bigger plus for the quarter - tesla just guaranteed a sell out of every single car they can deliver this year. I bet they will allocate all cars to us vs international given this. Should bode well for quarter and margins since it looks like mostly 100ds are in stock
Texas is a different market then rest of the US. In many ways, the Texas market is like Australia and not so much like rest of the US.
The wholesale market structure is not very supportive of storage. Even in Australia, big coal has been obstructionist when it comes to regulation, disadvantaging storage.
One needs to spend a few weeks understanding the electricity market structure, regulation, some physics and engineering considerations of electricity transmission & distribution, and the obstructionist politics to understand the landscape.
TE has a bright future in the long-term, the next 5 years of it is not in the US. Australia could be huge for TE. Remember we are under a anti renewable FERC under the coal puppet Neil Chatterjee for the next 3 years.
If you want to dig more, I highly recommend subscribing to the energy transition show podcast by Chris nelder. It's worth every dollar.
erthquake
Active Member
Aren't all the cars allocated to overseas markets already on boats and underway?
It does have the "feel" of a large accumulator, doesn't it? Could just be a lot of individuals with a "buy around $300" price target, but it could also include a big accumulator. I'm now firmly of the belief that the drop from $360 was driven by the replacement of the fired sexual harasser running Fidelity OTC, and that we'll see a lower Fidelity OTC position at the next report... it'll be interesting to see who accumulated. If they stay under 5%, of course, we won't find out.
There are still fairly high odds that the worst tax bill ever written in US history dies, because the Freedom Caucus in the House hates the provisions added by the Senate to bribe the most worried Senators, and likely nothing which can get votes from the awful Freedom Caucus guys will retain all the Senators. (On top of that, by the time it gets out of conference committee, the Republicans might have lost a Senate seat -- we'll see on December 12th.)
But if it passes and the electric car tax credit is eliminated for everyone, as Musk has explained before on multiple earnings calls, this benefits Tesla. (Though it's bad for the world.) Under existing law, every latecomer auto manufacturer would get the tax credit, while it would expire for Tesla next year. So existing law was giving the latecomer incumbents an up-to-$7500 advantage over Tesla in pricing. All the incumbents have been counting on the tax credit in their pricing and business models; Tesla has been assuming it will disappear and planning accordingly.
If it's removed entirely, then Tesla gets a $7500/car leg up on BMW, Mercedes, etc. in US sales. GM has to cut the price of the Bolt immediately or be totally uncompetitive. You get the idea.
Musk is really thinking several steps ahead of most of the "competitors". This says more about the "competitors" than it does about him.
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