2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Dynastar]

"Tesla won't be able to ramp the Model 3" is definitely a thesis that could make an investor money if it is true. I'm happy to take the other side of that bet though.

 

[avoigt]

Sometimes I have a hart time to believe what I am reading ... take this:

Panel Discussion:
The VW Board Member for Commercial Vehicle, Andreas Renschler stated today that, quote " for heavy truck electrification will for a very very long period play no role (...) a Batterie for a 40 t Semi will have a weight of 10 t."

Volvo Board Member for Lars Stenquist said "and beside that its very very expensive."

" with a Bus in the Winter time 50% of the Energie gets lots with hearting (...) was added from the MAN Board Member Joachim Dres

They concluded that for city traffic electrification will come fast but for longer distances the Hybrid technology is the right choice.In order to reduce the in Germany debated city emissions they suggest to invest in new existing Semis as they pollute less than former generations. (End Quote)

No words.

 

[TradingInvest]

JPMorgan has a new short idea: Tesla shares to fall 40% in 12 months

JPMorgan has a new short idea: Tesla shares to fall 40% in 12 months

• 
  
  • JPMorgan advises investors to short Tesla, calling for 40 percent share downside over the next year thanks to possible share dilution and mounting competition.
  • "Tesla will face several milestones in 2018 relative to the ramping of production of the Model 3, which we believe will be difficult for the company to meet," wrote analyst Ryan Brinkman.
  • Shares of Tesla fell 0.8 percent in early trading Friday.
  • Though Tesla is up for the year, Tesla's stock has lost one-fifth of its value since a high in September, with shorts recovering $890 million of their losses, according to S3 Partners.

JPMorgan is advising investors to bet against shares of electric car-maker Tesla because the company is likely raise more capital, diluting its stock.

Also, competition from other automakers will increase, with some established auto giants looking to reap benefits from government subsidies, wrote analyst Ryan Brinkman.

"Tesla will face several milestones in 2018 relative to the ramping of production of the Model 3, which we believe will be difficult for the company to meet, particularly if its substantial miss to volume targets in 2017 are to be any guide," wrote Brinkman on Friday. "Competition for electric vehicles will increase in 2018 even as the regulatory environment in the United States may become less of a tailwind, including possible tax law changes and exhaustion of the $7,500 US federal tax credit available to buyers."

This isn't the first time Wall Street has advised investors to short Tesla. Famed short seller Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates said last month that he had increased his short position throughout the year, telling Reuters that he expects CEO Elon Musk to walk away from the company by 2020.

By selling shares at their current price and covering the sale at a later date, investors hope to profit as the price of Tesla shares fall.

Much of the short selling stems from doubts that Tesla will be able to bring its mid-priced Model 3 to full production, having delivered far fewer sedans than expected in 2017. Though many would consider Tesla integral in pushing the auto industry toward an electric and autonomous future, concerns of competition are creeping into the conversation.

"One of our principal concerns relates to how Tesla is going to be able to earn even an industry average EBIT margin if it must compete against competitors that are pricing electric vehicles without even the intention to make money, but rather to subsidize the rest of their lucrative internal combustion engine portfolios from a legal and regulatory compliance perspective," added Brinkman. The analyst has an underweight rating on Tesla as well as a $185 price target, representing 40 percent downside from Thursday's close.

To be sure, Tesla shorts have not had success for the majority of 2017, down roughly $4.1 billion for the first three quarters of the year on an average short position of $9.4 billion, according to an S3 Partners note published last month. Shares of Tesla are up 45 percent since January, but were down 0.8 percent Friday.

However, from a high of $385 per share in September, Tesla's stock has lost one-fifth of its value, with shorts recovering $890 million of their losses, according to S3 Partners.

Alternatively, analyst Brinkman is long on shares of Tesla-rival General Motors, which he sees rising 28 percent over the next year.

"We note General Motors sports a 3.4 percent dividend yield, making it attractive to income oriented investors, and yields 8.9 percent free cash flow to equity, on our 2018 estimates," wrote Brinkman. "Investors have not been willing to accord GM shares the premium we feel they deserve, given: (1) fear of large losses in the next downturn; and (2) fear of disintermediation by Silicon Valley."

General Motors shares are up 24 percent since January, but fell 1.1 percent Friday.

Mostly it’s ludicrous, but in the short term (early January and February) that might make sense. I’m considering buying straddles or strangles that cover those periods.

Ryan Brinkman issued 20 "Sell" recommendations against TSLA in the past 3 years. Every time he was so sure the stock would drop a lot. It must be frustrating for him and his clients.

 

[elliott82]

Doesn't surprise me. The amount of hatred towards Tesla or electrification in general in german forums is astounding. Pick basically any german news outlet and you will find a negative article. They are all sh*ting their pants and that's a great sign, but boy do you need a thick skin in these forums...

 

[Skryll]

Doesn't surprise me. The amount of hatred towards Tesla or electrification in general in german forums is astounding. Pick basically any german news outlet and you will find a negative article. They are all sh*ting their pants and that's a great sign, but boy do you need a thick skin in these forums...

 

[Curt Renz]

Thanks for posting. Did you happen to notice who created that parody of a scene from the film "Der Untergang (Downfall)"?

 

[Drax7]

Ryan Brinkman issued 20 "Sell" recommendations against TSLA in the past 3 years. Every time he is so sure the stock will drop a lot. It must be frustrating for him and his clients.

clearly his short clients demand this type of analysis and forecast

 

[Skryll]

Thanks for posting. Did you happen to notice who created that parody of a scene from the film "Der Untergang (Downfall)"?

brilliant, next lets replace the audio track also

 

[Hogfighter]

JPMorgan has a new short idea: Tesla shares to fall 40% in 12 months

JPMorgan has a new short idea: Tesla shares to fall 40% in 12 months

• 
  
  • JPMorgan advises investors to short Tesla, calling for 40 percent share downside over the next year thanks to possible share dilution and mounting competition.
  • "Tesla will face several milestones in 2018 relative to the ramping of production of the Model 3, which we believe will be difficult for the company to meet," wrote analyst Ryan Brinkman.
  • Shares of Tesla fell 0.8 percent in early trading Friday.
  • Though Tesla is up for the year, Tesla's stock has lost one-fifth of its value since a high in September, with shorts recovering $890 million of their losses, according to S3 Partners.

JPMorgan is advising investors to bet against shares of electric car-maker Tesla because the company is likely raise more capital, diluting its stock.

Also, competition from other automakers will increase, with some established auto giants looking to reap benefits from government subsidies, wrote analyst Ryan Brinkman.

"Tesla will face several milestones in 2018 relative to the ramping of production of the Model 3, which we believe will be difficult for the company to meet, particularly if its substantial miss to volume targets in 2017 are to be any guide," wrote Brinkman on Friday. "Competition for electric vehicles will increase in 2018 even as the regulatory environment in the United States may become less of a tailwind, including possible tax law changes and exhaustion of the $7,500 US federal tax credit available to buyers."

This isn't the first time Wall Street has advised investors to short Tesla. Famed short seller Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates said last month that he had increased his short position throughout the year, telling Reuters that he expects CEO Elon Musk to walk away from the company by 2020.

By selling shares at their current price and covering the sale at a later date, investors hope to profit as the price of Tesla shares fall.

Much of the short selling stems from doubts that Tesla will be able to bring its mid-priced Model 3 to full production, having delivered far fewer sedans than expected in 2017. Though many would consider Tesla integral in pushing the auto industry toward an electric and autonomous future, concerns of competition are creeping into the conversation.

"One of our principal concerns relates to how Tesla is going to be able to earn even an industry average EBIT margin if it must compete against competitors that are pricing electric vehicles without even the intention to make money, but rather to subsidize the rest of their lucrative internal combustion engine portfolios from a legal and regulatory compliance perspective," added Brinkman. The analyst has an underweight rating on Tesla as well as a $185 price target, representing 40 percent downside from Thursday's close.

To be sure, Tesla shorts have not had success for the majority of 2017, down roughly $4.1 billion for the first three quarters of the year on an average short position of $9.4 billion, according to an S3 Partners note published last month. Shares of Tesla are up 45 percent since January, but were down 0.8 percent Friday.

However, from a high of $385 per share in September, Tesla's stock has lost one-fifth of its value, with shorts recovering $890 million of their losses, according to S3 Partners.

Alternatively, analyst Brinkman is long on shares of Tesla-rival General Motors, which he sees rising 28 percent over the next year.

"We note General Motors sports a 3.4 percent dividend yield, making it attractive to income oriented investors, and yields 8.9 percent free cash flow to equity, on our 2018 estimates," wrote Brinkman. "Investors have not been willing to accord GM shares the premium we feel they deserve, given: (1) fear of large losses in the next downturn; and (2) fear of disintermediation by Silicon Valley."

General Motors shares are up 24 percent since January, but fell 1.1 percent Friday.

Mostly it’s ludicrous, but in the short term (early January and February) that might make sense. I’m considering buying straddles or strangles that cover those periods.

"Competition" is the reason to short Tesla. Bwaahahahaha!!

 

[TrendTrader007]

JPMorgan has a new short idea: Tesla shares to fall 40% in 12 months

JPMorgan has a new short idea: Tesla shares to fall 40% in 12 months

• 
  
  • JPMorgan advises investors to short Tesla, calling for 40 percent share downside over the next year thanks to possible share dilution and mounting competition.
  • "Tesla will face several milestones in 2018 relative to the ramping of production of the Model 3, which we believe will be difficult for the company to meet," wrote analyst Ryan Brinkman.
  • Shares of Tesla fell 0.8 percent in early trading Friday.
  • Though Tesla is up for the year, Tesla's stock has lost one-fifth of its value since a high in September, with shorts recovering $890 million of their losses, according to S3 Partners.

JPMorgan is advising investors to bet against shares of electric car-maker Tesla because the company is likely raise more capital, diluting its stock.

Also, competition from other automakers will increase, with some established auto giants looking to reap benefits from government subsidies, wrote analyst Ryan Brinkman.

"Tesla will face several milestones in 2018 relative to the ramping of production of the Model 3, which we believe will be difficult for the company to meet, particularly if its substantial miss to volume targets in 2017 are to be any guide," wrote Brinkman on Friday. "Competition for electric vehicles will increase in 2018 even as the regulatory environment in the United States may become less of a tailwind, including possible tax law changes and exhaustion of the $7,500 US federal tax credit available to buyers."

This isn't the first time Wall Street has advised investors to short Tesla. Famed short seller Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates said last month that he had increased his short position throughout the year, telling Reuters that he expects CEO Elon Musk to walk away from the company by 2020.

By selling shares at their current price and covering the sale at a later date, investors hope to profit as the price of Tesla shares fall.

Much of the short selling stems from doubts that Tesla will be able to bring its mid-priced Model 3 to full production, having delivered far fewer sedans than expected in 2017. Though many would consider Tesla integral in pushing the auto industry toward an electric and autonomous future, concerns of competition are creeping into the conversation.

"One of our principal concerns relates to how Tesla is going to be able to earn even an industry average EBIT margin if it must compete against competitors that are pricing electric vehicles without even the intention to make money, but rather to subsidize the rest of their lucrative internal combustion engine portfolios from a legal and regulatory compliance perspective," added Brinkman. The analyst has an underweight rating on Tesla as well as a $185 price target, representing 40 percent downside from Thursday's close.

To be sure, Tesla shorts have not had success for the majority of 2017, down roughly $4.1 billion for the first three quarters of the year on an average short position of $9.4 billion, according to an S3 Partners note published last month. Shares of Tesla are up 45 percent since January, but were down 0.8 percent Friday.

However, from a high of $385 per share in September, Tesla's stock has lost one-fifth of its value, with shorts recovering $890 million of their losses, according to S3 Partners.

Alternatively, analyst Brinkman is long on shares of Tesla-rival General Motors, which he sees rising 28 percent over the next year.

"We note General Motors sports a 3.4 percent dividend yield, making it attractive to income oriented investors, and yields 8.9 percent free cash flow to equity, on our 2018 estimates," wrote Brinkman. "Investors have not been willing to accord GM shares the premium we feel they deserve, given: (1) fear of large losses in the next downturn; and (2) fear of disintermediation by Silicon Valley."

General Motors shares are up 24 percent since January, but fell 1.1 percent Friday.

Mostly it’s ludicrous, but in the short term (early January and February) that might make sense. I’m considering buying straddles or strangles that cover those periods.

Thank you JP Morgan. I had no idea! Now I’m truly informed of the risks of holding my TSLA position I shall advise my lawyer to make preparations for personal Bankruptcy filing
What a brilliant analyst!

PS: Elon I want my money back

 

[Waiting4M3]

Sometimes I have a hart time to believe what I am reading ... take this:

Panel Discussion:
The VW Board Member for Commercial Vehicle, Andreas Renschler stated today that, quote " for heavy truck electrification will for a very very long period play no role (...) a Batterie for a 40 t Semi will have a weight of 10 t."

Volvo Board Member for Lars Stenquist said "and beside that its very very expensive."

" with a Bus in the Winter time 50% of the Energie gets lots with hearting (...) was added from the MAN Board Member Joachim Dres

They concluded that for city traffic electrification will come fast but for longer distances the Hybrid technology is the right choice.In order to reduce the in Germany debated city emissions they suggest to invest in new existing Semis as they pollute less than former generations. (End Quote)

No words.

This is what happens when Tesla's R&D works faster than their competitors can update their powerpoint slides

 

[Lessmog]

JPMorgan has a new short idea: Tesla shares to fall 40% in 12 months

JPMorgan has a new short idea: Tesla shares to fall 40% in 12 months

• 
  
  • JPMorgan advises investors to short Tesla, calling for 40 percent share downside over the next year thanks to possible share dilution and mounting competition.
  • "Tesla will face several milestones in 2018 relative to the ramping of production of the Model 3, which we believe will be difficult for the company to meet," wrote analyst Ryan Brinkman.
  • Shares of Tesla fell 0.8 percent in early trading Friday.
  • Though Tesla is up for the year, Tesla's stock has lost one-fifth of its value since a high in September, with shorts recovering $890 million of their losses, according to S3 Partners.

Sounds like exactly what Mark Spiegel said last year around this time. Will this be the repeat of Spiegel bottom?

So, sp 600 in 6 months, eh?

 

[hobbes]

Doesn't surprise me. The amount of hatred towards Tesla or electrification in general in german forums is astounding. Pick basically any german news outlet and you will find a negative article. They are all sh*ting their pants and that's a great sign, but boy do you need a thick skin in these forums...

IMHO, while there are many negative articles on Tesla (which is true for the US, too btw), it has changed a lot compared to a few years ago as now there are also positive things written. You often hear that Tesla gave a wake up call to the German auto makers.

 

[MitchJi]

Really (not a surprise) ignorant:
<snip>
Why Electric Car Companies Don’t Need Batteries
Automotive investors should press for restraint: Car makers are better off building battery expertise and supplier relationships than cell plants. Daimler and Nissan used to make cells but both have pulled out in the last two years because costs and technology couldn’t match those of LG Chem and Samsung SDI of Korea.

If there is a competitive advantage to be found in batteries, it is in the chemistry, not the manufacturing. BMW pointed a sensible way forward last week in announcing a €200 million ($237 million) “battery cell competence center.” This will aid research into cell technology and make test batteries, but won’t mass-produce cells itself.

Fears of a looming shortage also look exaggerated. Oversupply is more likely. The industry currently has too much capacity, and the Chinese government is pushing local suppliers to build even more. The most prominent of these, CATL, wants to produce 50 GWh of batteries by 2021; Tesla’s factory has a target capacity of 35 GWh by 2020. With China involved, costs could fall faster than expected. This has happened in the solar-cell industry, which some see as a precursor.

The automotive industry is already spending more than investors would like on retooling factories for the electric revolution, suppressing profit margins. Cell production is one burden it needn’t shoulder.

—This column is part three of a series on the future of the booming world of batteries.

Write to Stephen Wilmot at [email protected]

Appeared in the December 1, 2017, print edition as 'EV Makers Don’t Need Batteries.'


BMW could have saved themselves $237 million dollars upfront, plus the billions that they will lose if they continue their foolish strategy, if they paid a competent engineer to listen to the Tesla ER's and shareholder meetings.

 

[DragonWatch]

Holy banana milkshakes that was funny as all get out! Got my rescued female lab upset thinking someone was breaking into her castle.

 

[DragonWatch]

Really (not a surprise) ignorant:
<snip>
Why Electric Car Companies Don’t Need Batteries
Automotive investors should press for restraint: Car makers are better off building battery expertise and supplier relationships than cell plants. Daimler and Nissan used to make cells but both have pulled out in the last two years because costs and technology couldn’t match those of LG Chem and Samsung SDI of Korea.

If there is a competitive advantage to be found in batteries, it is in the chemistry, not the manufacturing. BMW pointed a sensible way forward last week in announcing a €200 million ($237 million) “battery cell competence center.” This will aid research into cell technology and make test batteries, but won’t mass-produce cells itself.

Fears of a looming shortage also look exaggerated. Oversupply is more likely. The industry currently has too much capacity, and the Chinese government is pushing local suppliers to build even more. The most prominent of these, CATL, wants to produce 50 GWh of batteries by 2021; Tesla’s factory has a target capacity of 35 GWh by 2020. With China involved, costs could fall faster than expected. This has happened in the solar-cell industry, which some see as a precursor.

The automotive industry is already spending more than investors would like on retooling factories for the electric revolution, suppressing profit margins. Cell production is one burden it needn’t shoulder.

—This column is part three of a series on the future of the booming world of batteries.

Write to Stephen Wilmot at [email protected]

Appeared in the December 1, 2017, print edition as 'EV Makers Don’t Need Batteries.'


BMW could have saved themselves $237 million dollars upfront, plus the billions that they will lose if they continue their foolish strategy, if they paid a competent engineer to listen to the Tesla ER's and shareholder meetings.

Bottom line ~ automotive manufactures are going the way of old US refrigerator manufacturers. One gigafactory assembling parts one way for brand "X ~ say GM," one way for brand "Y ~ say Ford," one way for brand "Z ~ say Porsche;" and then there is Tesla all built from the ground up owned, designed and manufactured by Tesla. Hum, got gigafactory, got EVs, got SCs while all the rest just have hot air and no solar panels; used to be fossil fuel

 

[DragonWatch]

Yesterday my wife allowed me out of the dungeon for breakfast. On our way to the restaurant in our MX, I was stuck about three cars behind a diesel semi hauling a major load.
My first thought was how great it would be if it had been a Tesla semi. That way we would not have had to sit behind the truck watching it sway like a dying elephant struggling to move off the dollar (too small for this story). Instead of blowing snot like an elephant, it filled the Christmas air with diesel black smoke:-( Well, we had two more signals to watch this behemoth struggle off the line before it took a different path
I take each of my Tesla shares out into the back/front yard ~ looking at the lake and plant them. Each day I carry a half full can of water out to help them grow. I will do this until the sun no longer rises

 

[mongo]

Yesterday my wife allowed me out of the dungeon for breakfast. On our way to the restaurant in our MX, I was stuck about three cars behind a diesel semi hauling a major load.
My first thought was how great it would be if it had been a Tesla semi. That way we would not have had to sit behind the truck watching it sway like a dying elephant struggling to move off the dollar (too small for this story). Instead of blowing snot like an elephant, it filled the Christmas air with diesel black smoke:-( Well, we had two more signals to watch this behemoth struggle off the line before it took a different path
I take each of my Tesla shares out into the back/front yard ~ looking at the lake and plant them. Each day I carry a half full can of water out to help them grow. I will do this until the sun no longer rises

Wife and I had the same thought this week trying to merge at interchange behind a tractor trailer.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Why Electric Car Companies Don’t Need Batteries

Fears of a looming shortage also look exaggerated. Oversupply is more likely. The industry currently has too much capacity, and the Chinese government is pushing local suppliers to build even more. The most prominent of these, CATL, wants to produce 50 GWh of batteries by 2021; Tesla’s factory has a target capacity of 35 GWh by 2020.

So WSJ is now saying there is plenty of batteries, but 2 days ago they said there is not enough Cobalt to make the batteries.

Will Tesla Die for Lack of Cobalt?

tough to get your fact straight if it ain't actually fact.

 

[bdy0627]

Ryan Brinkman issued 20 "Sell" recommendations against TSLA in the past 3 years. Every time he was so sure the stock would drop a lot. It must be frustrating for him and his clients.

And now, he closes his eyes and swings for the fences just hoping the ball will be in the right place this time....