MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Last year the 2019 LEAPS were not available until the Monday after the third Friday of the month.
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From LEAPS® & Cycles
When are the exchanges going to list 2020 LEAPS®?
2020 LEAPS will be rolled out over a three month period.
Cycle 1: Monday, September 11th, 2017: January 2020 LEAPS® listed
Cycle 2: Monday, October 16th, 2017: January 2020 LEAPS® listed
Cycle 3: Monday, November 13th, 2017: January 2020 LEAPS® listed
sundaymorning
Active Member
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Looks like VW lost $24 Billion to settle this case, another $2.4 billion to cover additional costs. Daimler, aka Mercedes is also being investigated.
Daimler to Modify 3 Million Mercedes Cars Over Diesel Concerns
Interesting snippet on how model 3 VIN assignment lines up with position on production line.
Twig Mouse on Twitter
Twig Mouse on Twitter
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So @Dagger run his program and generated Model 3 VINs up to and inclusive 5000. All of them are now entered into the spreadsheet. Both Dagger and I run NHTSA data base checks on some of those VINs with the idea of trying to document what is the highest VIN that was registered in the NHTSA data base to date (I've added "Date of hit entry" column). It looks like the highest registered VIN is currently 1134.
Any volunteers can head over to the spreadsheet to check whether VINs listed in the spreadsheet can be found in the data base are welcome to do so.
I think that we should attempt to monitor the cadence of Tesla adding VINs to the data base to potentially glean any logic behind it.
I think that at this point is pretty unlikely that Tesla enters VINs in NHTSA data base upon completion of the manufacturing. It seems that now the best case scenario from an investor point of view is that VINs are registered with NHTSA as corresponding cars **enter** the production. That would mean that 1100 includes cars delivered, built and those that entered production, which would be a pretty good outcome. This, however, at this time remains just a hypothesis.
My hope is that by watching progress of VINs added to the NHTSA data base, combined with the communications from Tesla, we can have some insight on Model 3 progress.
Any volunteers can head over to the spreadsheet to check whether VINs listed in the spreadsheet can be found in the data base are welcome to do so.
I think that we should attempt to monitor the cadence of Tesla adding VINs to the data base to potentially glean any logic behind it.
I think that at this point is pretty unlikely that Tesla enters VINs in NHTSA data base upon completion of the manufacturing. It seems that now the best case scenario from an investor point of view is that VINs are registered with NHTSA as corresponding cars **enter** the production. That would mean that 1100 includes cars delivered, built and those that entered production, which would be a pretty good outcome. This, however, at this time remains just a hypothesis.
My hope is that by watching progress of VINs added to the NHTSA data base, combined with the communications from Tesla, we can have some insight on Model 3 progress.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Yes, there is always the risk that this time when good news comes out that the stock price will just go up in spite of efforts of bears to the attack the price. I think that's why it is best to accumulate shares well in advance, not in the run up. I do think that it good that the ram goes smoothly. That deprives the bears of easy FUD fodder. But they've got plenty of old FUD to run with if necessary. In unveiling the Semi, there is huge potential to create FUD out of the need for capital, financial risk, lack of focus, worries being spread thin, and of course a wholesale mockery of the very idea that electric semis can be taken seriously inbthe trucking industry. So I expect a pretty stout FUD storm with price attack.
The point of setting this out is that we can trade against this fairly predictable behavior of bears. Avoid buying in the run up and save powder for buying during the bear attack. But as I said the risk is that this time could be different, but I doubt it.
I generally find that the more I accept the game shorts are playing, the easier it is find opportunities to buy at low prices. The shorts just keep pushing these discounts at us.
Here's what I can distill from the Twig Mouse posts:
pre Sept 25- Model 3 enters production
Sept 25- VIN issued to owner
Sept 26- Likely day for body and powertrain to be joined
Oct 2-5- Expected delivery date
Therefore, if his estimates are correct:
From VIN issue to delivery: 8-11 days, with one Sunday in between
From joining of powertrain & body to delivery: 7-10 days, with one Sunday
pre Sept 25- Model 3 enters production
Sept 25- VIN issued to owner
Sept 26- Likely day for body and powertrain to be joined
Oct 2-5- Expected delivery date
Therefore, if his estimates are correct:
From VIN issue to delivery: 8-11 days, with one Sunday in between
From joining of powertrain & body to delivery: 7-10 days, with one Sunday
I wonder if Twig Mouse car was made on the "actual" production line at regular speed/no extra intermittent QC steps.
One suggestion is that the photo of the white M3 with the 9-26 label was the first "perfect" car off the actual production line.
So Twig Mouse car would have been very close to this status, perhaps?
One suggestion is that the photo of the white M3 with the 9-26 label was the first "perfect" car off the actual production line.
So Twig Mouse car would have been very close to this status, perhaps?
To the veteran TMC members and manufacturing gurus, do you remember how this timeline compares to the early Model S deliveries? Is 8 days from VIN issuance to ready to deliver indicative of an actual production line speed?
When civilians start getting their cars in October, we can start comparing Vin issue date to completion date and delivery date. Those vehicles delivered at the factory involve no shipping. Since the mouse is working at the factory, he is obviously taking delivery at the factory and so we can compare times from VIN to completion with his experience to judge how quickly the whole process is speeding up. This should make for a good benchmark.
Unfortunately, there's nothing currently in the NHTSA database between 1134 and 5000. I checked.
And, I'll bet a bottle of whatever @ValueAnalyst is drinking that after registering the Model 3 up to the 1134 magic-number, that Tesla will be scrambling the VINs from here on out.
As I indicated in my post, the *highest* VIN registered in data base was 1134. Some (but not all) of the higher numbers were checked against data base, and none of those were in it as indicated by "no" in the spreadsheet.
Did you check **all** numbers up to 5000, or spot checked?
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LoL Rick
Like Buttah
Start to finish production of Model S or X is about 5 days, according to the guide on my recent tour. That has nothing to do with VIN issuance, just the time on the line.
The real Model 3 line, when it is going full speed, should be much faster.
The real Model 3 line, when it is going full speed, should be much faster.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Tequila. Can you handle a bottle?
Not sure how valuable VIN counting is; too many unknowns to reach any conclusion. Can someone please remind me how helpful or unhelpful VIN counting was during Model S and X production ramps?
In my student years, way back, in another country, on another continent, the rule for bottled hard liqueur was n+1, where n is quantity of drinking party members.
And yes, we all know that nothing is as indicative of the SP price action as deep value analysis offered by some TMC members...
And yes, we all know that nothing is as indicative of the SP price action as deep value analysis offered by some TMC members...
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
I can wait until Monday or even Tuesday.So is everyone staying up late to see if delivery numbers are released at midnight tonight?
BTW, as a reminder, I am quite positive that VIN counting associated with **Model S ramp up** prior to Q1 2013 results were published was responsible for quite a few teslanairs...
The record got progressively worth after Tesla, seemingly intentionally, scrambled their VIN assignment process.
Dismissing everything and anything except of what you think is worth analyzing is getting quite old...
Sudre
Active Member
This is the only part I disagree with. When a person says on the 25th, "Expecting to take delivery by the end of THIS week."
That means the end of that week (Sept 30th). Not some time the following week. Granted he is at the factory so there is no shipping and anyone else would have to wait until the following week because of shipping... but I am splitting hairs. Nothing personal.
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