2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[jhm]

Wow, can we take this discuss of VINs to its own specialized thread? It is highly technical, granular and contentious. It is not particularly edifying to people here who simply want to follow market action.

Be considerate and take such obsessions to another place. That's what I do when I set up new threads.

 

[Navin]

Wow, can we take this discuss of VINs to its own specialized thread? It is highly technical, granular and contentious. It is not particularly edifying to people here who simply want to follow market action.

Be considerate and take such obsessions to another place. That's what I do when I set up new threads.

It’s the weekend and the stock isn’t moving till Monday - what market action is there to discuss really other than qtr numbers which makes VIn discussion somewhat relevant?

 

[TheMrX]

production Hell joke embedded in VINs numbers..... WOW!!!!! The nerdy sense of humor of TSLA team is amazing! As always!

Model 3 production management meeting :

'' - We need a block of VINs number to start production, what you guys think would be a good number?
- Here (handing over an old fashioned hand calculator)
- Well, that should do !''
All of them busting out laughing as much as if Elon just crashed a second non-insured Mclaren. HAHAHAHA!!!!!

Hey they are going through hell ... let's have some fun while doing so!

So, back on topic on what would that implies for market action:
Personally, I think this number is for sure not a coincidence so it has had to be determined in advance. They were aiming at 1500 for September and the ''hell'' number is for US registration only and we know that some other Model 3 were saw in other countries. So they might have taken the decision to reach this number for US only.

Now beyond that, while it does excite me like many others here, I'm trying not to get too optimistic about it as we have no evidence that VIN number = car produced.

BUT, if I would be asked : '' What is your best optimistic scenario of this situation?''

I would say that management came to conclusion that the hardest part part of production hell would be getting production line working without human intervention to correct something. And that that part has been successfully passed on sept 26 by a model 3 with a vin number ending by 1134.

.... That is definitely NOT an advice!

 

[Tslynk67]

Congrats to Norway, 2003 Teslas registered in September and counting! 7 more registrations and they'll be a x2 Q1+Q2

 

[Papafox]

One way to reduce concerns that the 1134 numbers are a block taken out at once would be to see if anyone has been counting M3 Vins previously with this method and if there has been a progression up to that 1134 number (i.e. highest number was 822 last week). Additional numbers added today would be a positive sign, too.

Update: I just checked 1137 and it is not registered. I'll check various numbers now and then today in the hopes we see some more numbers added.

Update 2: Meanwhile, Vin 505 has been spotted in the wild

 

[Tslynk67]

 

[D-egg-O]

@Fallenone made a great observation that the VINs that came back unregistered add up to 20, which counts for the ones Elon said they built for final engineering validation.

Also, 1100 is a lovely round number to report next week for quarterly production totals.

Obviously 34 /= 20, but the unregistered numbers account for the engineering validation vehicles. The other 14 could be cars that had some production issues, so they pulled them off the line to assess and fix the issues.

If Tesla pulled and registered the VINs at the same time, I think the number would be higher. We know their goal was more ambitious than 1134.

Just a few more days, and we'll find out.

 

[Navin]

I looked back over past couple of years and tesla did/does report numbers on Sunday, including last year’s 3rd qtr Numbers. We’ll see but if numbers are strong - I’d rather them report before market opens on Monday. Not fair to give the shorts a chance to adjust their positions

 

[racer26]

@racer26 you were tracking this even before electrek published it right. Any info on at what rate the max registered VIN was changing?

I found it approximately 24 hours before the electrek story hit the airwaves. It was 1134 when I found it. It did not change all day Friday.

I believe this supports a batched adding as opposed to some sort of realtime system.

What's not clear is if it's batched ahead or batched after production happened.

Alternatively, Model 3 line got a break from hell yesterday because anything they built wouldn't get delivered in quarter anyway. Judging by the user posted here about their X delivery being pushed into next quarter by an extra day because the delivery team is getting a break on Monday this also seems plausible.

Of course, the number not changing since I found it also lends some support to the production hell joke theory.

 

[Paracelsus]

View attachment 250930

I love the concept that Elon may have been sending a cryptic message to the 'analysts' of exactly how many cars Tesla intended to produce in the first phase of the Model 3 roll-out during his Model 3 unveil speech when he mentioned 'Production Hell'. (1134 vehicles). Imagine how much fun he must be having with that at the moment if that is true. People will be looking for hidden meanings in everything he says. I certainly jumped to the conclusion that BFR meant something other than Big Fun Rocket!

This would result in future unveils and even QE reports being like the scenes from The Life of Brian where The Followers misinterpret his meanings and signals (and of course we know Elon finds this movie a classic). The struggle they must be having now after the Australia battery project success unveil is simply trying to decide if TE is the 'shoe' or the 'gourd'.

 

[racer26]

Humans are interesting creatures. If it's a production hell joke, it's a pretty obscure one that was likely to go unnoticed. And yet, if coincidence, look how many of us have noticed and prognosticated on it.

 

[KLC13]

Congrats to Norway, 2003 Teslas registered in September and counting! 7 more registrations and they'll be a x2 Q1+Q2

This is great but do we know what prompted Norway to go all out on Tesla's this quarter? Or is it just batched shipment that consists of overhanged orders from previous quarters?

 

[Tslynk67]

This is great but do we know what prompted Norway to go all out on Tesla's this quarter? Or is it just batched shipment that consists of overhanged orders from previous quarters?

Doesn't really matter, deliveries are deliveries, demand from previous quarters is demand.

It's true that Europe gets a bigger batch end of the quarter, USA gets is earlier.

What's interesting is that most of the deliveries are 75's, so you can't say they're catching-up on on 100 battery packs either.

 

[Tslynk67]

Humans are interesting creatures. If it's a production hell joke, it's a pretty obscure one that was likely to go unnoticed. And yet, if coincidence, look how many of us have noticed and prognosticated on it.

Well, either Elon's super-nerdy-clever, or we are - place your bets...

 

[GoTslaGo]

Well, either Elon's super-nerdy-clever, or we are - place your bets...

He does love Easter Eggs...

 

[Krugerrand]

Obviously 34 /= 20, but the unregistered numbers account for the engineering validation vehicles. The other 14 could be cars that had some production issues, so they pulled them off the line to assess and fix the issues.

If Tesla pulled and registered the VINs at the same time, I think the number would be higher. We know their goal was more ambitious than 1134.

Just a few more days, and we'll find out.

Crash cars?

 

[JRP3]

Well, either Elon's super-nerdy-clever, or we are -

Yes.

 

[JRP3]

#505 claimed to have been seen in the wild Highest Production VIN seen

 

[ggr]

Well, either Elon's super-nerdy-clever, or we are - place your bets...

You know, there are a lot of other smart and funny people at Tesla and SpaceX. It might be both intentional and not Elon.

 

[EinSV]

Sure, the value of this new line will build into the price of the stock leading into the unveiling. But afterwards the stock become vulnerable to shorts who will poke ant the speculative nature of the new product line and will be able to raise myriad doubts about the whole thing and the strain it puts on the enterprise. Shorts will also attack the price to help steer the narrative to a more negative view.

So my expectation is that the immediate response to this unveiling will be lots of FUD and a price attack. So the price will fall. So it can be beneficial to buy shares well in advance or wait until just after the unveiling.

I have high hopes for Tesla Semi. It can be incredibly transformative for trucking and rewarding for Tesla. But it will take time for the market to truly appreciate how remarkable it is.

Thanks. That sounds a lot like what happened after the Model 3 reveal and announcement of increased production plans so seems plausible, although I can also see the opposite happening especially if Tesla reveals substantial orders (which they may or may not have initially). The success of any attack will probably be affected by how bumpy the Model 3 ramp is at that point -- if all is going relatively smoothly it may be harder to raise fears about the strain on the enterprise and Tesla's ability to deliver. If it's rough going the opposite is likely true.