This is how you know that some analysts are not being serious or worse, being outright deceptive. The way you put it is exactly right, if Tesla Model S happens to be the market leader in the Large Luxury segment, which it is, then any car that comes along that is better at worst makes the Model S the second place in the segment and the market for all other competitors is decreased for this new mythical Tesla killer. It is either dumb or disingenuous to think otherwise.
The problem for the traditional automaker today is that they wont be taking market share from Tesla, as Tesla only has 1% as
@myusername likes to endlessly point out as a negative, which its not. Its that these traditional automakers can only take market share from each other and really from their own brands. For this honor, they get to invest (burn cash) on the order of tens of billions of dollars. Tesla is the only car company in a position to grow by taking market share. Every other existing auto manufacturer only has one direction to go. So it is a Zero sum game, though not in the classic sense. The Zero sum part is that when you add up all the market share these companies add in EVs will be offset by market share lost in ICEv netting Zero sum. Now that might be fine if they can find a way to make Evs cheaper then ICEv. The most optimistic projection of when that might happen is around 10 years. How much cash will GM, MB, BMW, VW and the rest burn in that 10 years trying to catch up and how much market share will they take from Tesla? Even if they take it all, they are going to spend tens of billions of dollars, maybe even hundreds of billions of dollars cumulatively to take 1% from Tesla? Its not only unlikely, its not worth the effort. Traditional autos are in a really bad place as even if they are enormously success, its unlikely they will grow their business and they still have to solve the dealership issues and the issues with their own dependence on ICEv revenues/profits and employees that dont fit this new world though they are must still keep them around to maintain their ICEv business. This has a compounding effect where by the less revenues you get from ICEv, the most expensive it is to support as a percent. I dont think it can be understated how complicated it will be to solve these last two issues and it just gets glossed over by people like Cramer and his clearly not well thought out statement.
I can assure you that if we can figure this out on a fan site Forum, that there are much smarter people out there who can see the writing on the wall. It will be interesting to see how things flush out over the next 5-10 years, but I think model 3 is going to put an overwhelming amount of pressure on the EU automakers and the Y will do the same for many Japanese companies and last, the Semi -> Heavy Duty Truck -> Light Duty Pickup product line will finish the job for US automakers. The 3, Y and Semi lineup are the hat trick and Tesla is the only company that I have seen that go grow from 1% to 10% to 30% and beyond over the next 10 years. The rest only have one direction they can go.
