2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[racer26]

TheStreet is now commenting on Nomura's characterization of Tesla's customers as being economically irrational.

This is certainly true for some, but for many Tesla customers, including one I was conversing with last night, the decision is purely an economic one. Operating a Tesla is ~5x cheaper than comparable gas cars. For people who drive a lot, or better yet, get paid standard rates for mileage, buying a Tesla is a no brainer.

 

[EinSV]

Thank you to both for posting these; very informative.

I'm perplexed, however, that these sell-side analysts are getting cited left and right, whereas people are still doubting my short squeeze call.

Despite the fact that my accuracy is much higher at 82% than both analysts: https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/valueanalyst

You have been suggesting an imminent short squeeze since you started posting actively and it hasn't happened yet. I don't think a true short squeeze is likely any time soon if at all.

On the other hand, I think there is a high likelihood that shorts will exit in large numbers between now and early 2019 assuming Tesla can execute on its Model 3 plan of 10K/week at 25% gross margins by the end of 2018. Shorts streaming toward the exits should release the artificial downward pressure on the share price that the high short interest causes and IMO is very likely to push the share price up at a much faster pace than it otherwise would. This could be in the form of an identifiable short covering rally or just a relatively steady increase in the share price along the lines we have seen since December 2016.

 

[geneclean55]

Dips getting bought. Disconcerting for shorts.

 

[The Blue Owl]

TheStreet is now commenting on Nomura's characterization of Tesla's customers as being economically irrational.

This is certainly true for some, but for many Tesla customers, including one I was conversing with last night, the decision is purely an economic one. Operating a Tesla is ~5x cheaper than comparable gas cars. For people who drive a lot, or better yet, get paid standard rates for mileage, buying a Tesla is a no brainer.

Not only that, but it's an entirely irrelevant point. iPhone buyers are also 'economically irrational', but they made Apple what it is.

I also like how Cramer observes that:

no matter how well Tesla does, [...] this is not a "zero sum game," meaning other automakers will still have market share."​

.... and yet, to this day, I haven't seen any article pointing out that this is also true in reverse, namely, Porsche's Mission E and other such Tesla Killers are more likely to kill Panameras and A6s than Teslas.

 

[ZsoZso]

I had a buy order at $320 from yesterday morning and it never executed !
I don't understand...
it was supposed to go down to the 310s, or so was I told

 

[ValueAnalyst]

You have been suggesting an imminent short squeeze since you started posting actively and it hasn't happened yet. I don't think a true short squeeze is likely any time soon if at all.

On the other hand, I think there is a high likelihood that shorts will exit in large numbers between now and early 2019 assuming Tesla can execute on its Model 3 plan of 10K/week at 25% gross margins by the end of 2018. Shorts streaming toward the exits should release the artificial downward pressure on the share price that the high short interest causes and IMO is very likely to push the share price up at a much faster pace than it otherwise would. This could be in the form of an identifiable short covering rally or just a relatively steady increase in the share price along the lines we have seen since December 2016.

That's fair. I did expect a short squeeze earlier this year, but I have also indicated $450-500 would be the price that would trigger it.

I think we'll get to that point earlier than your estimate.

 

[EinSV]

That's fair. I did expect a short squeeze earlier this year, but I have also indicated $450-500 would be the price that would trigger it.

I think we'll get to that point earlier than your estimate.

I don't have an estimate for when we'll get to $450-500/share, but I would be content if we had no short squeeze and the stock just continued along the boring old path it's been on since the Spiegel bottom of a relatively steady increase at a >100% annual rate.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Funny conversation with my wife right now:

Hi Honey, can you change the buy limit order on TSLA and move it up to near current SP?

**What?! The price is kind of high! Why didn't you buy last couple of days ?

I did (at a much lower price), and used up our available funds doing so. We just sold some shares of other stocks and now have more capital to buy more.

**Ok!

 

[kenliles]

I also like how Cramer observes that:
no matter how well Tesla does, [...] this is not a "zero sum game," meaning other automakers will still have market share."

Bloomberg offers a different view
Investors Are Betting on GM, Ford and Tesla. They Can't All Win.
"<
However, investors are divided at this moment, driving up the valuations of both legacy automakers and their rival Tesla. It's a zero-sum game, but investors are betting as though everyone can win.
>"

 

[ggr]

Bloomberg offers a different view
Investors Are Betting on GM, Ford and Tesla. They Can't All Win.
"<
However, investors are divided at this moment, driving up the valuations of both legacy automakers and their rival Tesla. It's a zero-sum game, but investors are betting as though everyone can win.
>"

That's a pretty stupid statement, because "the investors" don't invest as a block. Some are backing Tesla, others are backing GM & F. It just shows increased polarization.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Bloomberg offers a different view
Investors Are Betting on GM, Ford and Tesla. They Can't All Win.
"<
However, investors are divided at this moment, driving up the valuations of both legacy automakers and their rival Tesla. It's a zero-sum game, but investors are betting as though everyone can win.
>"

That is my point. All press presents it as a zero-sum game. They just assert it, while offering no support for it whatsoever.

 

[geneclean55]

Vin-tracker | track Model 3 Vins that are registered

 

[Gerardf]

Vin-tracker | track Model 3 Vins that are registered

1135.. so they went from Model-3 HELL to model-3 SELL

.. great work, thanks for your effort

 

[MitchJi]

Technically correct -- it is neither laughable nor ridiculous. If you want maximum economic growth, the correct top tax rate (for billionaires) is at least 70%, probably over 90%. Every serious study shows this. This is only disputed by billionaires and their lackeys.

Thank you for an intelligent post on this topic. This goes beyond income income. It's an issue of democracy and morality. Check the current budget and tax plans. Giving billions to billionaires while denying basic health care for millions of Americans, defunding environemental regulations etc.

Excellent Bernie podcast about income inequality:
The Bernie Sanders Show by U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders on Apple Podcasts

Chuck Collins, Director of the Institute for Policy Studies' Program on Inequality and the Common Good, joined Sen. Sanders to discuss the worrying growth of income and wealth inequality and how we can create a more equal society.

 

[Reciprocity]

1135.. so they went from Model-3 HELL to model-3 SELL

.. great work, thanks for your effort

Let me know when they get to 1337... or LEET... for those non gamers.

 

[phigment]

Vin-tracker | track Model 3 Vins that are registered

Hmm. It says 1135. When did that go up from 1100?

The last I checked, 1134 was the highest and there were gaps.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Suppose I'll be rich enough for business class anyway, so... I'll bring some Belgian chocolates and amazing beers...

may even be rich enough for BFR class

 

[TradingInvest]

You have been suggesting an imminent short squeeze since you started posting actively and it hasn't happened yet. I don't think a true short squeeze is likely any time soon if at all.

On the other hand, I think there is a high likelihood that shorts will exit in large numbers between now and early 2019 assuming Tesla can execute on its Model 3 plan of 10K/week at 25% gross margins by the end of 2018. Shorts streaming toward the exits should release the artificial downward pressure on the share price that the high short interest causes and IMO is very likely to push the share price up at a much faster pace than it otherwise would. This could be in the form of an identifiable short covering rally or just a relatively steady increase in the share price along the lines we have seen since December 2016.

I agree we are unlikely to repeat a short squeeze like we saw in 2013. That time the company was tiny, short interest was 50%, shorts were caught off guard. They kept shorting more and more on the way up, then no shares for them to cover. We saw a forced capitulation. This time the short interest % is much less. They were constantly warned about the upside potential. When the rally starts, some funds will likely to sell. It's not setting up as a powerful short squeeze. I would be very happy if it turns out I am wrong.

What will drive Tesla's share price is not short squeeze, but the business development in the next 5~10 years, the future earnings.

On the technical side, the stock breaking out of a three year trading range is very significant. I expect big upside to come in the next few years.

 

[Lessmog]

1135.. so they went from Model-3 HELL to model-3 SELL

.. great work, thanks for your effort

If our tea-leaf reading is correct, that could mean we're ut of HELL! But don't tell anyone.

 

[CaliBear1]

Seriously we should have a get together when the share price hits $1,000 or $1999.

I envision Prince's party like it's 1999 playing and becoming the theme.

I envision all of us rolling up in gleaming new Teslas. Better set up a mobile SC station!