MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
That's completely irrelevant in terms of J18 calls.
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
How can a company's 2018/19 revenue and profits be "completely irrelevant" to its current stock price?!?!
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Sparky
Member
It's the weekend: I recall it was Buckminster Fuller who went a year without speaking so as to better understand the meaning of words and how best to use them. It think it was following something of a "psychic break" for Fuller who emerged wanting only to work towards things which improved the planet.
Anyway, not suggesting anything so extreme here but I do relate to his experiment as an instance of wisdom. ( shutting up now ).
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
And VA's "disagree" is ludicrous.
Particularly by someone who doesn't believe strongly enough in his own analysis to even purchase options!
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There are a couple of things going on here.
Value Analyst's opinions are as insightful and informed as most sell side analysts (I have no information about buy side analysts).
Value Analyst wants to make money as a Tesla specialist.
There is money if you can find an algorithm to time the swings. It seems to be correlated to analyst reports. I don't know if those are periodic...
There is money if you can reduce risk. Paper can make people comfortable with risk. So comforting paper has value.
The problem with making money on advising on Tesla is it is such an obvious long that some folks put all their money in, and then they are done. So the information drives one transaction every two years.
Maybe plotting TSLA as the O'Neil CAN-SLIM see saw gradually tips toward buy would be worth something. So TSLA crossed with CAN-SLIM as a weekly emailed report. This will give one a sense of incipient rises in stock price - especially if there were some indication of max rate of change on each of the parameters so you could get a sense of how much attention to pay timing wise.
There was a person with money asking something like this a few days ago. The CAN-SLIM stuff is kind of like golf, there are so many exceptions that will cause it to fail that it is tedious to do correctly. People will pay for that attention to detail.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Tesla replaces Model 3 headlights, battery, seats, and more while going through ‘production hell’
<Snip>
Sources familiar with those changes confirmed to Electrek that they had to make over a half dozen of them. In most cases, the vehicles are still performing normally, but Tesla wants to replace a now “prototype” part with a production one or it has improved on a production part through the deployment of the Model 3 manufacturing lines.
For example, Tesla has already replaced the Model 3 front and passenger seats as well as the battery packs from the vehicles made in July.
More recently, Tesla changed the Model 3’s headlight and tail lights for vehicles made in August. The headlights were replaced with an “upgraded version”, while the first version of the tail lights were susceptible to condensation – something that was visible in some Model 3 production candidates spotted in the wild earlier this year.
Tesla also had to replace several other smaller components, but as we reported last week, Tesla attempted a Model 3 production ramp up in September and the changes have slowed down since.
Electrek’s Take
What’s interesting about this is that it gives us insight into the work being done on those early production Model 3 vehicles.
Longtime Tesla enthusiasts remember the same things happening with early Model S production and most recently with early Model X production, which was when Musk first introduced his “production hell” expression.
<Snip>
More grist for the fud mill.
<Snip>
Sources familiar with those changes confirmed to Electrek that they had to make over a half dozen of them. In most cases, the vehicles are still performing normally, but Tesla wants to replace a now “prototype” part with a production one or it has improved on a production part through the deployment of the Model 3 manufacturing lines.
For example, Tesla has already replaced the Model 3 front and passenger seats as well as the battery packs from the vehicles made in July.
More recently, Tesla changed the Model 3’s headlight and tail lights for vehicles made in August. The headlights were replaced with an “upgraded version”, while the first version of the tail lights were susceptible to condensation – something that was visible in some Model 3 production candidates spotted in the wild earlier this year.
Tesla also had to replace several other smaller components, but as we reported last week, Tesla attempted a Model 3 production ramp up in September and the changes have slowed down since.
Electrek’s Take
What’s interesting about this is that it gives us insight into the work being done on those early production Model 3 vehicles.
Longtime Tesla enthusiasts remember the same things happening with early Model S production and most recently with early Model X production, which was when Musk first introduced his “production hell” expression.
<Snip>
More grist for the fud mill.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
My economic interest in TSLA is at least two orders of magnitude more than whatever I'll make from Tesla articles in 2018.
So I'm at TMC pretty much solely to contribute insight and learn from more knowledgeable people. Otherwise I would just crank out articles...
The TSLA vs CAN-SLIM work has intrinsic learning value. Vocabulary at the first level is one part, but nuances about how the vocabulary plays against the chart, and the people who manipulate, is where you can gap people.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Sad, but unfortunately not surprising:
Tesla to stop Powerwall shipments to installers price gouging in Puerto Rico
“Tesla sent the battery packs, but after speaking with locals trying to get them installed, Electrek learned that local installers are difficult to reach and some are charging as much as $12,000 for a Powerwall with the installation.”
That’s a premium of as much as 50% on the price that Tesla lists on its website.
After someone sent our article to Elon Musk on Twitter, Tesla’s CEO confirmed that the company will stop sending Powerwalls to installers engaging in that practice:
<Snip>
Furthermore, Musk said that Tesla is sending more internal Powerwall installers from the continental US to Puerto Rico in order to train the local team:
“The internal Tesla Powerwall install team in PR is very small right now. Sending experienced installers from continental US to hire & train local team as fast as possible.”
The installation is apparently the current bottleneck for getting the Tesla Powerwall in Puerto Rico so that initiative is likely to accelerate the deployment.
There are apparently a lot of rooftop solar installations that survived the two hurricanes but they could use the home battery packs as their grid connections are currently useless.
<Snip>
I'm very happy that they are making that a priority over the semi reveal!
Tesla to stop Powerwall shipments to installers price gouging in Puerto Rico
“Tesla sent the battery packs, but after speaking with locals trying to get them installed, Electrek learned that local installers are difficult to reach and some are charging as much as $12,000 for a Powerwall with the installation.”
That’s a premium of as much as 50% on the price that Tesla lists on its website.
After someone sent our article to Elon Musk on Twitter, Tesla’s CEO confirmed that the company will stop sending Powerwalls to installers engaging in that practice:
<Snip>
Furthermore, Musk said that Tesla is sending more internal Powerwall installers from the continental US to Puerto Rico in order to train the local team:
“The internal Tesla Powerwall install team in PR is very small right now. Sending experienced installers from continental US to hire & train local team as fast as possible.”
The installation is apparently the current bottleneck for getting the Tesla Powerwall in Puerto Rico so that initiative is likely to accelerate the deployment.
There are apparently a lot of rooftop solar installations that survived the two hurricanes but they could use the home battery packs as their grid connections are currently useless.
<Snip>
I'm very happy that they are making that a priority over the semi reveal!
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Mike Smith
Active Member
Monday, after an early dip, could be another move higher on 'bad news' which will further frustrate short sellers after what happened with the delivery numbers.
CNBC's lead story right now is that Tesla Semi is delayed, which is completely false. Do they think the production engineers are all sitting around doing nothing waiting for the public unveiling? The only news we received about Tesla Semi is that the specs are better than the market is expecting. The date a prototype is shown to the public is irrelevant.
We also found out that the WSJ and Daily Kanban stories are false. From Tesla:
"every Model 3 is being built on the Model 3 production line, which is fully installed, powered on, producing vehicles, and increasing in automation every day.
As we’ve always acknowledged, it will take time to fine-tune the line for higher volumes, but as we have also said, there are no fundamental issues with Model 3 production or its supply chain, and we are confident in addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term. We are simply working through the S-curve of production that we drew out for the world to see at our launch event in July."
Elon said nothing on twitter that suggests a Model 3 delay of more than a few weeks, which we already knew. He clarified that the configurator will only go online when more options are available (which makes the 6-8 week timeline in line with prior delivery guidance), that first deliveries to non-employees could be as early as this month, and that December will be a 'big month'.
The only other news is that something big could be happening in Puerto Rico.
CNBC's lead story right now is that Tesla Semi is delayed, which is completely false. Do they think the production engineers are all sitting around doing nothing waiting for the public unveiling? The only news we received about Tesla Semi is that the specs are better than the market is expecting. The date a prototype is shown to the public is irrelevant.
We also found out that the WSJ and Daily Kanban stories are false. From Tesla:
"every Model 3 is being built on the Model 3 production line, which is fully installed, powered on, producing vehicles, and increasing in automation every day.
As we’ve always acknowledged, it will take time to fine-tune the line for higher volumes, but as we have also said, there are no fundamental issues with Model 3 production or its supply chain, and we are confident in addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term. We are simply working through the S-curve of production that we drew out for the world to see at our launch event in July."
Elon said nothing on twitter that suggests a Model 3 delay of more than a few weeks, which we already knew. He clarified that the configurator will only go online when more options are available (which makes the 6-8 week timeline in line with prior delivery guidance), that first deliveries to non-employees could be as early as this month, and that December will be a 'big month'.
The only other news is that something big could be happening in Puerto Rico.
Sudre
Active Member
This is actually potentially very HUGE.
If most of the electrical grid and power plants need repairs, they may just decide to go ahead and replace everything with solar, wind, and power packs for the entire island!
There is NO NEWS that will move TSLA other than Model 3.
With the recent Elon Tweets as a guide, I say...
-- By end of 2017 Q4 -- Expect TSLA spot to fall below $250/share
-- By end of 2018 Q1 -- Expect TSLA spot to fall below $200/share
The news coming out, over the last 24 hours, is extremely scary to me (long).
With the recent Elon Tweets as a guide, I say...
-- By end of 2017 Q4 -- Expect TSLA spot to fall below $250/share
-- By end of 2018 Q1 -- Expect TSLA spot to fall below $200/share
The news coming out, over the last 24 hours, is extremely scary to me (long).
Reciprocity
Active Member
I'm to scared.. need to do a lot more studying. Don't mock me or make fun of me when I leave. Thx.
jhm
Well-Known Member
The only money I've lost on Tesla has been on options. Stock has much better return for me.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
As far back as I can remember, this is the least scary period of Tesla’s history that I can think of.
Today, Tesla has a steady lineup in Model S and X. In 2012, there was nothing backing up the company while Model S slowly ramped up.
bdy0627
Active Member
I don't disagree with this viewpoint but there are other reasonable ways to interpret the latest information. I don't think it's clear that the stock will go down on Monday due to Musk's tweets and the latest negative articles. However, my comfort level with holding J18s at this point has gone down because I feel less certain that the stock will rise during the next few months. I am very certain it will over the next year. It would be a much more pleasant surprise to convert the J18s to J19s and see the stock rise sooner than later than to hold the J18s in anticipation of the stock rising before the end of the year only to find that it doesn't. I felt the J18s were a reasonable risk/reward when the stock had dropped to $340 and below. Now that it is back up in the $350s and with the latest uncertainty, I'm less comfortable. My plan was to sell the J18s between $370 and $400 and put that money into DITM J19s. I just may move that money to the J19s a little sooner now.
I know that Musk’s tweet storm on Friday has been and will be interpreted differently by the media and the shorts, but I just do not view what came out as negative. To me it was neutral to positive info. From the production and delivery report last week, we all knew that the M3 production was hitting some bumps. In my view, Musk provided more light on those bumps and what he said was not bad. He is pushing his teams, and he does not see big issues - and, of course, Tesla is in “production hell.” They are trying to ramp to fill almost 500,000 reservations (maybe more at this point). With the “assume the worst” tweet this could have just been frustration when Musk was being called out on his optimistic goals on delivery of the M3. In other words, if you do not believe me when I tell you something, then just assume the worst to come up with you projections and leave me alone as I need to get back to doing my job. Also, the company came out with a very strong official statement to dispel some of the false narrative regarding the WSJ article and the interpretations coming out of Musk’s tweets.
On the semi delay, really who cares? The delay is so his teams can focus on speeding up production for the M3 and to focus on a very exciting potential high growth area for Tesla, which is providing power to millions of people. If you were CEO, would you reward your teams with a party to showcase a future product when you need your employees to focus on current products? We also got info that the semi is better than the speculation in the press and elsewhere. Again, who cares that the reveal is delayed again? Musk was basically telling the world it will be worth the wait as it is better than you can imagine.
Yes, maybe the stock will be down Monday. But, again, I think looking at what was really said, the news is not really much different than what it was when the stock was up on Friday. In fact, the markets now have some more insights that show the long-term huge opportunities that are on the table for Tesla. The current stock price is based on that future not on today.
On the semi delay, really who cares? The delay is so his teams can focus on speeding up production for the M3 and to focus on a very exciting potential high growth area for Tesla, which is providing power to millions of people. If you were CEO, would you reward your teams with a party to showcase a future product when you need your employees to focus on current products? We also got info that the semi is better than the speculation in the press and elsewhere. Again, who cares that the reveal is delayed again? Musk was basically telling the world it will be worth the wait as it is better than you can imagine.
Yes, maybe the stock will be down Monday. But, again, I think looking at what was really said, the news is not really much different than what it was when the stock was up on Friday. In fact, the markets now have some more insights that show the long-term huge opportunities that are on the table for Tesla. The current stock price is based on that future not on today.
Mike Smith
Active Member
The wildcard is the Q3 conference call. If Elon says the bottlenecks are solved and things are on track for 5k per week production, even by end of January, and that 10k per week is still on track for 2018, TSLA is going straight to 400 in my opinion. If you tune out the media and listen to what Tesla has actually said this seems fairly likely. The earnings numbers should also be better than expected given the high MS/X deliveries and that they delivered more cars than they produced.
We also have the potential for a Puerto Rico deal and a very positive semi event. I wouldn't count out those J18s yet.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Sure! And I'm freakin Sean Connery!
TrendTrader007
Active Member
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