2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

I never go into a company that is not a virtual monopoly
AMZN GOOGL BABA Are potential candidates but all too painfully obvious to investors
TSLA is a virtual monopoly in the making
FB I will never bet against MZ
I made $2 in FB over 2 years
I made well over $5 in TSLA in less than a year
TSLA reigns supreme
FB a distant second

 

[madodel]

Sure! And I'm freakin Sean Connery!

I always thought of you as more the Roger Moore 007.

 

[D-egg-O]

There is NO NEWS that will move TSLA other than Model 3.

With the recent Elon Tweets as a guide, I say...

-- By end of 2017 Q4 -- Expect TSLA spot to fall below $250/share
-- By end of 2018 Q1 -- Expect TSLA spot to fall below $200/share

The news coming out, over the last 24 hours, is extremely scary to me (long).

It's called FUD for a reason. Remember the hit piece from NYT on the Model S performance in the cold? The difference is Elon wrote a response to NYT because SO much was riding on the Model S for Tesla to succeed then. They don't need to waste their time with detailed responses to the FUD nowadays.

Edit: changed wording for better clarity.

 

[TradingInvest]

As far back as I can remember, this is the least scary period of Tesla’s history that I can think of.

Today, Tesla has a steady lineup in Model S and X. In 2012, there was nothing backing up the company while Model S slowly ramped up.

You nailed it. Tesla's teams have gained tremendous experience in the past 6 years. Recently Elon also commented that he never felt better about Tesla than now.

Since I have some people on ignore, I frequently get confused and can't understand the context of some posts, such as this one.

 

[Krugerrand]

Sure! And I'm freakin Sean Connery!

You're going to be throwing a Sean Connery type party, so work on your accent.

 

[NicoV]

Ha.. I was waiting for someone do exactly this.

I work 16hr days and usually don't know which day of the week it is, but I'll refrain from posting so often.

I've never heard of anybody who wished on his dying bed that he had worked more during his lifetime.

Enjoy life. Should be easy with all your TSLA profits. (disclaimer: not an advice).

 

[Starno]

I've never heard of anybody who wished on his dying bed that he had worked more during his lifetime.

Enjoy life. Should be easy with all your TSLA profits. (disclaimer: not an advice).

For some people the difference between work and pleasure is undistinguishable.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

For some people the difference between work and pleasure is undistinguishable.

If you do what you love...

 

[NicoV]

For some people the difference between work and pleasure is undistinguishable.

Absolutely. I've been lucky to be in that case for 20 years. But after passing the age of 40, I came to realize that there are other things in life, and that I won't live eternally. The work didn't change, nor my happiness about my work, but my perspective did.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I've never heard of anybody who wished on his dying bed that he had worked more during his lifetime.

Enjoy life. Should be easy with all your TSLA profits. (disclaimer: not an advice).

I'm close to achieving my financial goals, at which point I'll start organizing/financing people who want to make a positive difference in the world.

Solving Homelessness is the first goal.

 

[dhrivnak]

I'm close to achieving my financial goals, at which point I'll be able to start organizing/financing people who want to make a truly positive difference in the world.

Solving Homelessness is the first goal.

Habitat for Humanity is a great program with that goal in mind. It truly makes a difference.

 

[elasalle]

I'm close to achieving my financial goals, at which point I'll start organizing/financing people who want to make a positive difference in the world.

Solving Homelessness is the first goal.

Start small. Rather than trying to Solve it, participate your time and resources in organizations that already do. (maybe you already do)

 

[Intl Professor]

For some people the difference between work and pleasure is undistinguishable.

Nonetheless, it is not healthy for the body, however stimulating to the brain. I sit at a computer or before TV at least six hours a day. I now have trouble walking. Just saying. A life of oatmeal and nothing else is not worth living. An advice. Also, how can one be creative without diversification? Just a WAG, isn't that true for corporations and investing?

 

[Lessmog]

Nonetheless, it is not healthy for the body, however stimulating to the brain. I sit at a computer or before TV at least six hours a day. I now have trouble walking. Just saying. A life of oatmeal and nothing else is not worth living. An advice. Also, how can one be creative without diversification? Just a WAG, isn't that true for corporations and investing?

Yes, more oatmeal and walking for better motions. Also my experience. Too much pc and driving. Have appointment with physiotherapeut next week.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I'm close to achieving my financial goals, at which point I'll start organizing/financing people who want to make a positive difference in the world.

Solving Homelessness is the first goal.

One of the things I love to do is selecting microcredit projects I like and want to lend money to:
I use Kiva and Zidisha. These loans get repaid over time so I can re-lend the money.

Kiva is a very famous microcredit platform, there are thousands of projects which you can loan to. In almost 3 years, the amount of money lent is 3x my initial (quite small) donation, and I helped many different entrepreneurs around the globe. (for reference, here you can find my public page). I like that I can filter projects (for example, female-led projects in third world countries regarding agriculture or education).

Zidisha is a less known platform, but very good nonetheless: Paul Graham uses it and often talks about it on Twitter.

If you want to participate, you can click here:

• Kiva
  
• Zidisha (this referral link gets you 25$ to donate for free)

 

[Paracelsus]

Yes, more oatmeal and walking for better motions. Also my experience. Too much pc and driving. Have appointment with physiotherapeut next week.

Better make sure it's organic, non-GMO oatmeal or that adjustment won't be worth the effort. There is enough glyphosate in most oatmeals - including Quaker Oats - to send the results of that effort in the wrong direction, a fact that really surprised and disappointed us recently

 

[Intl Professor]

Better make sure it's organic, non-GMO oatmeal or that adjustment won't be worth the effort. There is enough glyphosate in most oatmeals - including Quaker Oats - to send the results of that effort in the wrong direction, a fact that really surprised and disappointed us recently

Though I eat oatmeal most days and like it draped in fruit with cinnamon, Splenda, and soy milk, this is just how a thread gets started on a random walk. In my original post I used oatmeal metaphorically, for something that is bland. Now I see the danger of arguing by analogy! You see I even like oatmeal with diversity. But to get back to today's theme, by itself, and without cooking, it is dry as dust in the mouth and hard to masticate (I hope that's an ok word for such a family friendly site.)

 

[MitchJi]

How can a company's 2018/19 revenue and profits be "completely irrelevant" to its current stock price?!?!

And VA's "disagree" is ludicrous.

Particularly by someone who doesn't believe strongly enough in his own analysis to even purchase options!

There's a story about Gandhi and a boy whose mother thought ate too much sugar. She brought me boy to Gandhi and he said bring him back in three days. When she returned with the boy Gandhi looked at him and said "don't eat sugar." The mother asked him why he asked her to come back in three days. Gandhi said three days ago I was eating sugar myself. In other words walk your talk!

When you don't believe in your own opinion sufficiently to buy options how in the world can you recommend that someone else hold quarterly options, with what sounds like a significant portion of his portfolio? If you want to bet on this don't point me to a bogus betting thread! The only valid way to do that is to purchase J18 options with about at least ~30% of your portfolio. You might win, but I don't recommend doing that. If the discounted cash flow is a reliable method to determine the SP over the next three months why wouldn't you do that? Why wouldn't you be willing to go all in on J18's or even a more long term investment with J19's?

The wildcard is the Q3 conference call. If Elon says the bottlenecks are solved and things are on track for 5k per week production, even by end of January, and that 10k per week is still on track for 2018, TSLA is going straight to 400 in my opinion. If you tune out the media and listen to what Tesla has actually said this seems fairly likely. The earnings numbers should also be better than expected given the high MS/X deliveries and that they delivered more cars than they produced.

We also have the potential for a Puerto Rico deal and a very positive semi event. I wouldn't count out those J18s yet.

I believe that many people on this forum consider my strategy reckless. I am planning to go all in on 2019 or 2020 LEAPS very soon. I feel completely confident doing that based o on Elon's statements about M3 production and profitability in 2018. People are suggesting that Brent hold his J18 quarterlies based on "maybe there might be some good news on the Q3 ER". What Elon said was to "assume the worst!" You can look at that with rose colored glasses if you want to and I don't even disagree with that, but I consider that more appropriate for a few lottery ticket options than a strategy for investing a substantial portion of my portfolio.

It's clearly much safer to roll the J18's to April or June or J19 calls than to wait. What if the news in the Q3 ER is bad? He could count on the semi reveal or the (gulp) January numbers. I find it hard to believe that my post on this topic got multiple disagrees. I said that I believe that he should look for an opportunity to unload them sooner rather than later. If anyone disagrees with that you should bet by making him an offer to buy his J18's at the market price. I'm betting that he doesn't get any PM's offering to buy those calls.

I don't disagree with this viewpoint but there are other reasonable ways to interpret the latest information. I don't think it's clear that the stock will go down on Monday due to Musk's tweets and the latest negative articles. However, my comfort level with holding J18s at this point has gone down because I feel less certain that the stock will rise during the next few months. I am very certain it will over the next year. It would be a much more pleasant surprise to convert the J18s to J19s and see the stock rise sooner than later than to hold the J18s in anticipation of the stock rising before the end of the year only to find that it doesn't. I felt the J18s were a reasonable risk/reward when the stock had dropped to $340 and below. Now that it is back up in the $350s and with the latest uncertainty, I'm less comfortable. My plan was to sell the J18s between $370 and $400 and put that money into DITM J19s. I just may move that money to the J19s a little sooner now.

You might also consider April or in later in October the June calls. With your January calls your last chance is the January delivery numbers, which won't even capture the Q4 ER results including the TE results for Q4. April calls will capture the Q4 ER and the Q1 delivery numbers and June calls will capture the Q1 ER.

 

[AudubonB]

... dry as dust in the mouth and hard to masticate (I hope that's an ok word for such a family friendly site.)

If not, I'm sure a Mod will come by and tell you to shut your mouth with masting tape.

 

[MitchJi]

Another ludicrous "disagree" by VA.

Repeating myself:

There's a story about Gandhi and a boy whose mother thought ate too much sugar. She brought me boy to Gandhi and he said bring him back in three days. When she returned with the boy Gandhi looked at him and said "don't eat sugar." The mother asked him why he asked her to come back in three days. Gandhi said three days ago I was eating sugar myself. In other words walk your talk!

No offer to "bet" by purchasing a substantial number of J18's though !