2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MartinAustin]

I think it's a loose 280 support... give or take a few bucks.

I think the energy behind this rally is weakening as we transition into the "pre earnings" period. Needle is moving towards investors happy taking profits prior to the ER.

Not that this affects the long-term trajectory... just a short-term thing.

 

[Paracelsus]

I think the energy behind this rally is weakening as we transition into the "pre earnings" period. Needle is moving towards investors happy taking profits prior to the ER.

Not that this affects the long-term trajectory... just a short-term thing.

Not sure about that.......I tend to agree with geneclean55's post (1999) speculating a rise to about 291 just before earnings - not just because we have seen some similar behavior on TSLA price before earnings in quarters past where it approaches recent highs with a great deal of accuracy before the call, but also because of the pretty convincing Bollinger Band data that AustinEV has put out for folks on the "some views on current price" page (great graph, AustinEV). Thus there is the possibility for a little more than 10 points between now and the 22nd, and this could include a day or two of flat trading just prior to earnings where the stock (and the Bollinger Band 'compressed energy spring') are reloaded and ready for take off just in time to take us through 300 if the world likes the report card next week and any other announcements that come along with it (the later being more important IMHO). The rise to 291'ish between now and then would also bring us back up to our trend line that has formed since around February 3 that also just happens to align with 291'ish right around earnings.

 

[hoang51]

Not sure about that.......I tend to agree with geneclean55's post (1999) speculating a rise to about 291 just before earnings - not just because we have seen some similar behavior on TSLA price before earnings in quarters past where it approaches recent highs with a great deal of accuracy before the call, but also because of the pretty convincing Bollinger Band data that AustinEV has put out for folks on the "some views on current price" page (great graph, AustinEV). Thus there is the possibility for a little more than 10 points between now and the 22nd, and this could include a day or two of flat trading just prior to earnings where the stock (and the Bollinger Band 'compressed energy spring') are reloaded and ready for take off just in time to take us through 300 if the world likes the report card next week and any other announcements that come along with it (the later being more important IMHO). The rise to 291'ish between now and then would also bring us back up to our trend line that has formed since around February 3 that also just happens to align with 291'ish right around earnings.

I agree with @MartinAustin because I typically see within a week or so prior to the earnings release, some will sell to lock in their profits. If you were to look at the graph for some stocks, you'll see the share price rise before the earnings, dip down a bit prior to a couple of days, then, if everything is good from the earnings, it shoots up the next day. NVDA and AMD show these trends that comes to my mind.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Now even more confused. The root of my question is to distinguish a material trade of your post. If one adds 20% to his holdings is significant vs. one that adds 2%. It gives a different read... that's all. Seems like you took a different approach.

Okay here is the deal:
A stock like Tesla needs to be accumulated in large quantities at the point of breakout which is at a much lower price point. I'm basically pyramiding up as the stock goes up on the assumption that eventually this will be a $1000 plus stock so even a price of $280 will seem inexpensive
% wise I can't help but add only relatively Modest quantities as the SP progressively increases since my initial position is so large
Sorry for misinterpreting your intent
I apologize

 

[TrendTrader007]

@TrendTrader007 - I'd love to interview you (via Google Video Hangout) and have you share about your trading insights and stories. I tried PM'ing you but it would let me (something about your profile but being public). So, PM me when you get the chance. (Ps, you can look at the google hangout thread in the investors section and see some of the folks I've interviewed in the past.)

I'd love to! It's an honor frankly and I'll see if I can figure out how to PM you
Honestly though I'm really not an exceptional trader and in my opinion the guy I'd love to really see interviewed is Papa fox
Papa fox is the real deal and the reason why I'm still on TMC I'm a huge fan

 

[Irishjugg]

I think it's mostly due to the fact that income from all of the catalysts we've been talking about here for the last couple of years is imminent.

I don't have any idea what the price might be, not even a guess, but I do think that the surge might not be over.

My post was not disagreeing with you thinking that the surge might be over, but the fact that you seemed to be too sure that it was over, and the reasons for that certainty seemed dicey to me.

I'd be pretty happy with $320!

My mistake in terms of representing my position then. My whole point was more that I don't feel strongly enough to bet on more growth, and that if I was guessing we would be near the end of this particular run up. Based on that, I'm not buying at these levels at this time. ER could change my mind, but I'm not expecting an amazing ER and probably a not quite profitable one, barely.

 

[TrendTrader007]

The deal with Tesla is that short-term does not matter at all I mean I don't care if I make or lose in the short-term but in the long run this stock is going places so my strategy is to accumulate as many shiares as I possibly can and see what happens
I agree with Ron Baron

 

[Papafox]

I'd love to! It's an honor frankly and I'll see if I can figure out how to PM you
Honestly though I'm really not an exceptional trader and in my opinion the guy I'd love to really see interviewed is Papa fox
Papa fox is the real deal and the reason why I'm still on TMC I'm a huge fan

Thanks for the kind words, TrendTrader007. I too am not an exceptional trader. I'm just one of the many voices here on TMC . I've participated in one google hangout event and it was worth the effort. Hope to do it again sometime, but for now it would be interesting to hear from someone new.

 

[geneclean55]

Not sure about that.......I tend to agree with geneclean55's post (1999) speculating a rise to about 291 just before earnings - not just because we have seen some similar behavior on TSLA price before earnings in quarters past where it approaches recent highs with a great deal of accuracy before the call, but also because of the pretty convincing Bollinger Band data that AustinEV has put out for folks on the "some views on current price" page (great graph, AustinEV). Thus there is the possibility for a little more than 10 points between now and the 22nd, and this could include a day or two of flat trading just prior to earnings where the stock (and the Bollinger Band 'compressed energy spring') are reloaded and ready for take off just in time to take us through 300 if the world likes the report card next week and any other announcements that come along with it (the later being more important IMHO). The rise to 291'ish between now and then would also bring us back up to our trend line that has formed since around February 3 that also just happens to align with 291'ish right around earnings.

I agree with @MartinAustin because I typically see within a week or so prior to the earnings release, some will sell to lock in their profits. If you were to look at the graph for some stocks, you'll see the share price rise before the earnings, dip down a bit prior to a couple of days, then, if everything is good from the earnings, it shoots up the next day. NVDA and AMD show these trends that comes to my mind.

The candlestick pattern to me suggests we could squeeze out another 10 bucks. Compare the highlighted candlestick pattern earlier during the runup to our most recent trading pattern (see uploaded image). I just think if it happens its gotta happen in the next couple days otherwise we consolidate into earnings.

 

[Drax7]

Baron also mentions the economy doubles in 12 years, well not at 2% gdp growth.

Using the rule of 72, 72/2 would imply 36 years to double GDP.

I frankly don't take my investment advice from Baron, even though I see tesla growing
Sales exponentially For he next 5 / 10 years.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA i'm not paying much attention to daily chart but instead focus on monthly chart which is extremely bullish and portends huge upside

 

[GoTslaGo]

Max pain for friday 17th is 270:

http://maximum-pain.com/options/max-pain/

 

[dakh]

Decided to have some fun with trading last week. So I keep buying count 1 of slightly in the money Feb 24 calls on dips, and then set a limit for maybe $3-5 gain, and the buggers just kept selling, and I kept buying. Enough of that though, last one will either have to be at least $10 in the money or I hold it until after ER and take my loss as a man if it happens

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA Ron Baron's target for 2030 leads to a SP of $7200 which is 24% annualized return over 13 years
I can do better than that

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA I'm a huge fan of Ron Baron
he's being conservative with projections
It's not hard to get 30% annualized return in bull markets

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA its like $AAPL and $AMZN
Periods of down/sideways action with bullish spurts lasting years
Satisfaction came in a chain reaction

 

[JRP3]

$TSLA Ron Baron's target for 2030 leads to a SP of $7200 which is 24% annualized return over 13 years
I can do better than that

$TSLA I'm a huge fan of Ron Baron
he's being conservative with projections
It's not hard to get 30% annualized return in bull markets

$TSLA its like $AAPL and $AMZN
Periods of down/sideways action with bullish spurts lasting years
Satisfaction came in a chain reaction

These conversations you seem to be having with yourself have nothing to do with Market Action.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Here is today's update for shorting activity at Fidelity (**). There were total approximately 88k shares borrowed for shorting and 584k shares covered, for a net covering of 496k shares. It seems that this provided sizable SP support amid of the apparent profit taking. Since last Monday, after we started to see significant covering activity at Fidelity, there were total net of 1.4M shares covered, not an insignificant number IMO.

It seems that TSLA is going to consolidate till ER, and then will chose direction of further movement based on what will the ER take-away be...

 

[vgrinshpun]

TSLA is in the upper portion of the regression channel, just under the upper BB which today stand at $280.88. If TSLA consolidate around $280 until after the ER, it will be close to the lower boundary of the channel, so for any negative surprise or perceived weak (or too enthusiastic) guidance during the ER SP could take a dip, breaking the trend. I personally think that this scenario is unlikely, but am going to book a nice profit closing my spreads, which currently have short leg at strikes between $270 and $275, with expiration date of Feb 24.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I would also add that in terms of all-important Model 3 guidance, it is worth keeping in mind how ridiculously low expectations are. For example, Jonas' model suggests valuation should be over $700 per share if Tesla hits its long-term guidance, even with zero value attributed to TE and Tesla Solar. He is a "bull" despite predicting deliveries of only 80K Model 3 in 2018. So it shouldn't take much to move his PT up, if he is so inclined (who knows if he will be).

Appearently not inclined to it yet, he just provided his opinion on the recent run-up. While one of the reasons sited is the increased confidence in model 3 execution, he left his price target where it was: $305. For now, at least...

"Tesla shares are up 32% YTD and 55% over the past 3 months vs. the S&P500 up 4% and 8%, respectively. Let's not overthink this. We attribute the run to 2 main drivers.

1. The stock price has a self-reinforcing tendency (in both directions). Tesla is a serial capital raiser that is widely seen as not yet in an internally self-funding position. As such, its ability to sustain its operations and fundamental value is inextricably linked to the very performance of its share price, creating a self- reinforcing momentum that expresses itself even more strongly given the heavily shorted position in the shares. Yes, this can work (and has worked) in both directions. This time the wind is in its sails (but as we note in our investment risks the winds can change and willingness of capital markets to fund Tesla's strategic and investment ambitions is not a constant).

2. Highly encouraging sentiment around Model 3 timing and milestones. How many companies with a market cap in excess of $40bn can you name that are within months of launching a product that could conceivably multiply annual revenues by as much as 5x over a 2 year period? Even if the Model 3 does not lead to positive cash flow or profitability of the company in the short-term (and we expect it will not), this is nonetheless an event that can have a potentially transformational impact on the market's perception of the company's addressable market, competitive position and fundamental sustainability. Please note this factor also serves to strongly reinforce point #1 above."