I have a similar view but I'm not anywhere near all-in because we do need to take money out of our portfolio on a regular basis to spend; so I can't afford to have everything in a single stock this *volatile* even if I consider it to be no risk in the long run. It's been a frustrating situation where I've wanted more but I won't risk being forced to sell at an inopportune time.
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Thanks for the update!
Jonas certainly moves in mysterious ways so I am not predicting that he will change his PT after the ER. But given his extraordinarily pessimistic forecasts for the Model 3 ramp there is a lot of room for him to significantly raise his PT if there is solid evidence that the Model 3 is on schedule.
Perhaps I am reading too much into it but his statement that you quote regarding the "potentially transformational impact" of Model 3 on the addressable market, competitive position, etc. seems to reinforce the possibility of improved guidance once there is more credible evidence that Model 3 will be produced in the hundreds of thousands in 2018, instead of the 80K he currently (dismally) forecasts.
Again, I don't want to predict the timing of this, but there is plenty of room for him to move his PT way up if circumstances warrant and he is in the mood. Or he may wait until Tesla has delivered 50-100K Model 3s for all I know, although I doubt he will wait that long.
If they can't push it that low (and I kind of suspect they can't), the OI walls are at 270 and 275 for puts and 280, 290, and 300 for calls. I wouldn't be surprised to see a concerted effort to keep the Friday close below 280.
After that, Monday won't have trading. Tuesday and Wednesday will probably be dominated by pre-earnings speculation. Then on Thursday we'll see how the markets react to the report.
Don't forget to factor in macro conditions... we have had a run on the major indexes and if that run pauses or rests, it could affect TSLA. The stock is likely able to break either direction... $270 and $285 are both easy reaches.
And uses "cash burm" tecnical term to describe spending...
ANALysts.
The all inclusive summary for these ANALysts, based on their own words: "We struggle to understand"; could be further clarified to read: we struggle (and fail) to understand.
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Adam Jonas put out a "positive" note overnight, Cap raise soon???
"We remain cautious with expected accelerated cash burn ahead of the Model 3 launch, further dilution with another likely capital raise...While we're concerned about Model 3 launch timing we are more concerned about Model 3 profitability given battery costs..."
good grief-
so we're back to 'cap raise for bigger bonfires metaphore'-
'burning cash' too fast to achieve the too slow M3 production line launch, but 'burning' it too slow to produce profitable batteries--
basically we don't know wtf capitalism is, how it works and why we exist -
I think UBS is burning too much cash - of course it belongs to others, so why do they care?
UBS - experts at Understanding BS
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edit: I see @vgrinshpun beat me to this conclusion as usual...
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T3slaTulips
Member
That's what all the bears screamed like a month and a half ago... nada.
I could be totally wrong, but pre-market "we do not understand" dip IMO will be quickly overpowered. Any way, I'll be glad to pick few shares - have buy order for $275...
More of the usual BS... it wasn't true last year, and as Tesla continues to execute it plans, it is even less true this year.
UBS: We don't understand the run up, but we will list the reasons it went up, but we just don't believe.
The fundamental last hope for the bears is that the Model 3 they know is coming and will be transformative is their hope that the Model 3 is gross margin negative. It is what they are clinging to now and will sustain them until Tesla proves otherwise, which would be 2018 before it can be proven out.
A total of 397k shares were put up by fidelity for borrowing, but only 18k were borrowed (**). Interest rate is steady at 2%. Let's see if there will be some covering on the dip...
racer26
Active Member
I just so completely don't understand the notion that Model 3 might be gross margin negative. It presupposes that TSLA management are going to be making the same stupidity that lead to the dot-com bubble. Lets take the high-volume product that we pinned the entire company's profitability proposition to, and make it gross margin negative, that sounds like a good idea. Like really. If Model 3 were going to be gross margin negative, Tesla just wouldn't build it yet. That's why they didn't build it 5 years ago.
Its easy to see from a first principles analysis that it should have better margin than similarly sized and classed gas cars, even if you assume batteries still cost Tesla $190/kWh, which we all know they don't.
Thank you for stating it clearly.
Bears, print it out loud, and read it out loud, until it stucks into your had like a brainworm.
If Model 3 is not bringing in money, they just wont be building it.
It is that simple.
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