2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MitchJi]

Lab success to mass production will take much longer than 18 months.

Neither battery maker nor automaker will wager their reputation on a new battery cell that doesn't have exhaustive long term testing validating the new chemistry and manufacturing process.

5 years would be very aggressive.

Maybe (for example) Jeff Dahn can help Tesla do it faster.

Or maybe the solid state cells are not subject to that type of problem. They are supposed to be immune to fires which are caused by the same thing that causes gradual cell degradation.

If Elon believes that it's a major advance I believe that at a minimum that Tesla will work on development and setting up the production in parallel.

 

[Intl Professor]

Random Thought

As one of the worst offenders here, since my mind is a jumble and I tend to wander because, like quantum mechanics, I think everything is related to everything else, and never had a college course in English. I shall try to remember to provide the caveat, as above, with each post as a redundancy to the ignore button.

 

[RobStark]

Maybe (for example) Jeff Dahn can help Tesla do it faster.

Or maybe the solid state cells are not subject to that type of problem. They are supposed to be immune to fires which are caused by the same thing that causes gradual cell degradation.

If Elon believes that it's a major advance I believe that at a minimum that Tesla will work on development and setting up the production in parallel.

Jeff Dahn isn't omniscient and his experience is with traditional lithium ion batteries.

Maybe isn't a sound foundation to switch from lithium-ion to sodium glass battery.

We don't know what we don't know. That is why you have long term testing. We don't know if Jeff Dahn's methods of accelerated testing for Lithium ion cells work for solid state cells until we test and compare.

If Tesla sells a million Model 3s per year with sodium glass batteries and they degrade to below 50% after 6 years or if they break and become damaged/fail with all the road vibrations it would all but destroy Tesla.

 

[Starno]

If anybody wants to engage in the overposting of senseless cheerleading or FUD, you’re not welcome on this site. Please go to StockTwits and do it over there. @Starno @ValueAnalyst @mmd @myusername

Personally, I think people have been trying to ignore this problem for too long. When we ignore it it just gets worse because there’s nobody confronting senseless noise on this thread and overposters continue to overpost and attract more overposters.

Folks, we need to stop ignoring this. Just putting a bunch of people on your ignore list, only temporarily postpones the problem and doesn’t really solve it. Also the mods aren’t doing anything about it, so it’s up to us.

Ok sorry I realize that indeed it's useless to post it here with so much people playing a game other than I am. And even the purpose of this thread isn't for the game I'm playing (common stock, long term, never selling).

So I'll just post very rarely here.

Moreover everything I think about the stock has already been said, and as it won't change in time. No need to post anymore.

I'll just post on the general discussion thread from time to time. And that's all.

 

[Chickenlittle]

If anybody wants to engage in the overposting of senseless cheerleading or FUD, you’re not welcome on this site. Please go to StockTwits and do it over there. @Starno @ValueAnalyst @mmd @myusername

Personally, I think people have been trying to ignore this problem for too long. When we ignore it it just gets worse because there’s nobody confronting senseless noise on this thread and overposters continue to overpost and attract more overposters.

Folks, we need to stop ignoring this. Just putting a bunch of people on your ignore list, only temporarily postpones the problem and doesn’t really solve it. Also the mods aren’t doing anything about it, so it’s up to us.

Ok my last comment but isn’t your post totally off topic and in the wrong thread. I believe there is a feedback thread for such comments and cannot find anything in your post regarding tesla short term trading

 

[TrendTrader007]

Thanks. That's very helpful... Looking for clarity on one more bit. So you seem to suggest lower leverage on smaller portfolios. Like 20% on $1 but maybe up to 50 to 60% on $10. Did I understand that right? If so, curious what your reasoning behind that is.

Theoretically it should not really matter what the size of a portfolio is as far as leverage is concerned
One could potentially leverage a $1 portfolio as much as a $10 or $100
However, in real life it's relatively hard for most people to build wealth through investing unless they take some sort of leverage
There are two schools of thought regarding risk
The conventional one is that you take more leverage with a smaller portfolio and less with a bigger portfolio since you got less to lose when you're starting out and more to lose as your portfolio increases in size as well as wealth creation vs preservation
The second school of thought, my own personal, is that risk should be taken in a convoluted bell shaped curve
I personally would take huge amounts of risk with a $0.1 portfolio because even if I lose it all I can easily earn it all back in no time. Less risk when I've only got $1 because if i lose half of it my net worth goes down to $0.5 but then the only way I can make it back relatively fast is through another trade but not through my day job
When I've got $10 or $100 I'd take relatively bigger risk because at that point I'm shooting for the stars
Once I get to $250 to $500 I'd use less than 20% margin because at that point I'm already super rich
Once I get to $750 to $1000 then I'll use zero leverage since I can easily get into Forbes 400 with no leverage in no time at all
Remember this is just my personal twisted thinking and 99% of public would think I'm crazy

 

[dc_h]

Any discussion or insight on firings on Friday? Was this solar city people still producing in Fremont? Battery production moved to Sparks? Headcount cutting to manage cash flow going forward, or have they implemented some Jack Welch cut the lower percentiles?
If an urgent cash flow mgmt program could be negative, but if part of the migration of production to GF1 or 2, or some other productivity gain, it could be positive for Q4.
Sorry to talk about Tesla, might be off track, but if this story is true, I would think it would affect the stock on Monday.

 

[myusername]

The thread is supposed to be about the trading TSLA (short term prospects for TSLA). I think that it's a hopeless cause, but posting useless wild and irrelevant statements isn't helpful.

and I accidentally posted today to the wrong thread... intending to post here... and those posts would have been the most relevant posts on this thread today. i've posted 3 times (not including this) in the last 3 weeks... and yet myusername comes up on @DaveT 's list... simply because shorts here are not wanted... too bad. this board isn't titled "Market Action for Super Long Cheerleaders!!! yeah... Tesla Rocks!"... it's titled "Market Action" under TSLA... intended for short term analysis... and if you didn't notice... i basically handed you the key factor in the current short term pattern... just on the wrong thread.

so quite frankly @DaveT, this thread isn't for you. I'd recommend:
Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

as for @ValueAnalyst ... yes... like your SA posts... please go start your own thread called "1T Market Cap Heros"

 

[geneclean55]

If TSLA doesn't go down on "bad" news and they have already demonstrated that they are capable of producing up to ~2500 cars per week.
Then what should logically happen to the SP when they do production ramp...and so why would you want to short right now?

 

[22522]

We don't know if Jeff Dahn's methods of accelerated testing for Lithium ion cells work for solid state cells until we test and compare.

The methods are like precise measurement of first principles. Yes, there could be other mechanisms.

 

[Dennisj00]

I’m not sure how any poster has any right to limit or recommend to limit any other poster (other than a Mod) since 90% or more of anyone’s posting is their opinion or guesstimate. If you don’t like their posts, move on and don’t create more noise in the thread, or create your own thread and stay there.

 

[geneclean55]

Don't tease us Elon

 

[DaveT]

I’m not sure how any poster has any right to limit or recommend to limit any other poster (other than a Mod) since 90% or more of anyone’s posting is their opinion or guesstimate. If you don’t like their posts, move on and don’t create more noise in the thread, or create your own thread and stay there.

That's the point. Mods are virtually non-existent in the investor section. Thus, we're left to moderating things ourselves.

If a user chooses to post 20 posts a day on this thread and they add no value, (ie., stocks going up $1, now going down $2, now going up $3, etc), and no mod steps in to discourage such posts (which they don't because they're barely on here), then other users have every right to discourage such posts for the greater good if the majority of users share the same sentiment.

 

[Intl Professor]

Don't tease us Elon

View attachment 254005

Random Thought(s)

Nanobots immersed in assemblyotic fluid? We're already finding out bacteria can be used as robots.

Cf one recent example. Scientist develops model for robots with bacteria-controlled brains

Edit: I wonder if there might be a welding process based on nanobots or an electric field which might achieve welds or other positive results through an immersion technique? (Apparently my Dad's fulminations about babtism scarred me.)

 

[TMSE]

a

Don't tease us Elon

View attachment 254005

I just checked, didn't see this among his likes.

 

[geneclean55]

a


I just checked, didn't see this among his likes.

Great minds think alike.
I ran through the other "ElonMusk" profiles on Twitter, there are none that match his name/profile pic.
Maybe he removed it?

 

[SBenson]

Great minds think alike.
I ran through the other "ElonMusk" profiles on Twitter, there are none that match his name/profile pic.
Maybe he removed it?

Maybe it’s on instagram. Anyway to see likes there?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Don't tease us Elon

View attachment 254005

Do you have a link for this, including the reply referenced in the post?

 

[D-egg-O]

I’m not sure how any poster has any right to limit or recommend to limit any other poster (other than a Mod) since 90% or more of anyone’s posting is their opinion or guesstimate.

Solid argument. Hard to argue against it. Though, much feedback has been provided to some posters. It would be very much appreciated if they took said feedback (more) into consideration regarding future posts.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Tesla is forming a flag on monthly chart
from the bottom of the flag to the top of the flag it is 380-180 which is equal to $200. Now add $200 to 355 and you get a price target of $555 over the next several months
All my calculations indicate a PT of $550 over the next 3 to 4 months