2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[winfield100]

OMG, wake me up before you go-go is my thought on the topic. Some people got fired for not being needed, not performing, wanting a union, showing up late, wearing their underwear on the outside of their pants, what have you.

Tesla said they are still hiring. Visit their website if you (general you) don’t believe their public statement.

Non-issue. Business as usual. Not worth discussing. And especially not worth the rampant speculation, handwringing, or hyperventilating going on in other threads.

if you want to keep an eye on hiring at the gigafactory, which should give a vague indication of hiring, you can subscribe to a website and get "updates" as new jobs are offered, for an informed idea of stuff. see included link right below
Tesla Gigafactory

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Doesn’t make sense. If VIN 1134 is delivered by mid-November that means things are AT LEAST 6 weeks behind schedule not 2-3 weeks. Because according to Elon’s prior tweeted schedule you linked to, VIN 1134 should have been delivered by end of Sept.

Produced vs. delivered, and "by" mid-Nov.

 

[DaveT]

It should have been built by end of September. I do agree they seem to be more than 2 weeks behind, but 4-6 weeks behind would be about 6-52 weeks earlier than most analysts are estimating.

I think it’s optimistic to think they’re only 4-6 weeks behind at this point. Elon’s tweeted production goals were probably aspirational and then they encountered additional unexpected bottlenecks. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla is 2-3 months behind Elon’s initial aspirational goals, with 5k/week production to be achieved by end of Q1 2018.

 

[geneclean55]

Maybe this will make the rounds in the news this coming week. One can dream.
Tesla power pack? In San Juan Puerto Rico FedEx ramp. • r/teslamotors

You can always rely on Fred

Tesla starts shipping Powerpacks to Puerto Rico

 

[ValueAnalyst]

You can always rely on Fred

Tesla starts shipping Powerpacks to Puerto Rico

Tesla is unbelievably fast. Amazing.

 

[Lessmog]

Tesla is unbelievably fast. Amazing.

Almost like rocketry?

 

[AlMc]

I think it’s optimistic to think they’re only 4-6 weeks behind at this point. Elon’s tweeted production goals were probably aspirational and then they encountered additional unexpected bottlenecks. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla is 2-3 months behind Elon’s initial aspirational goals, with 5k/week production to be achieved by end of Q1 2018.

Agree that it appears Tesla is about 8+ weeks behind. Jonas did predict 2K deliveries in 2017. I do believe there will be more than that. My own thought is about 6-7K deliveries and <10K produced.

For my general predictions to be wrong we need to see substantial evidence of production/deliveries in the next two weeks.

 

[Navin]

So basically tesla is deferring revenue vs losing revenue - not really a great investment thesis if you are a short

 

[MitchJi]

I think it’s optimistic to think they’re only 4-6 weeks behind at this point. Elon’s tweeted production goals were probably aspirational and then they encountered additional unexpected bottlenecks. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla is 2-3 months behind Elon’s initial aspirational goals, with 5k/week production to be achieved by end of Q1 2018.

It's possible that is correct. Being entirely in cash I hope so . I love the pessimism, I hope it's contagious!

But I don't believe that it's that bad. It's supposed to be a jagged ramp, so it's impossible for anyone, even Elon to know now what their rate of production will be at the end of December (which might be the most important number for the SP). If they even hit 4K by week four and you extrapolate back, just December alone might give them decent numbers for the year.

 

[DaveT]

It's possible that is correct. Being entirely in cash I hope so . I love the pessimism, I hope it's contagious!

But I don't believe that it's that bad. It's supposed to be a jagged ramp, so it's impossible for anyone, even Elon to know now what their rate of production will be at the end of December (which might be the most important number for the SP). If they even hit 4K by week four and you extrapolate back, just December alone might give them decent numbers for the year.

No worries. I’ll spread more pessisism so you can get a better price for Jan20 LEAPs next month. Hehe. J/k.

I do think at this point regarding the ramp those who err on being more realistic will likely be more accurate. I’m leaning toward ending December with 2000-2500/week of production. Working backwards from that, maybe 6k produced in Dec and 1.5-2k produced in Nov. Maybe 6-7k delivered in Q4, right at @AlMc’s estimate.

 

[TrendTrader007]

The charts have spoken and the verdict is in
They speak nothing but the truth
This week's hollow red candle is indeed a rare occurrence
Only four times has it occurred in the 7 year trading history of TSLA
All ye skeptics and non believers
I shall expound on the singular importance of this rare phenomenon later this afternoon or evening
I'm working out right now
But I want the nervous nancies and hyper skeptics to know that be prepared to cast all your doubts aside
All your gloomy forecasts shall come to nought
TSLA is about to go up big time
And I shall explain why later today


I know the score like the back of my hand
Them other boys
I don't give a damn
They kiss on the ring
I carry the crown
Nothing nothing can break me down
Don't need no advice
I got a plan
I know the direction
The lay of the land

 

[Snapdragon III]

No worries. I’ll spread more pessisism so you can get a better price for Jan20 LEAPs next month. Hehe. J/k.

I do think at this point regarding the ramp those who err on being more realistic will likely be more accurate. I’m leaning toward ending December with 2000-2500/week of production. Working backwards from that, maybe 6k produced in Dec and 1.5-2k produced in Nov. Maybe 6-7k delivered in Q4, right at @AlMc’s estimate.

I agree with your assessment of how far behind they appear to be. After falling down a rabbit hole of reading thousands of old TMC posts from the last 3 years this weekend, I am less optimistic that there will be a miracle. There were a lot of dashed hopes on TMC over the last few years!

Do you have thoughts on how the market may react to the following scenario? On the conference call in a few weeks Elon acknowledges That they are behind by 8 weeks where they hoped to be, but gives some satisfying answers on what has been going on, including some of the bottlenecks they have fixed, and some of the ones they are still working on. And reiterates confidence in getting to 10K/week in 2018.

My guess on the scenario above, is that it is about what the market is expecting, and is priced in already. I would be curious to hear if anyone else had a dramatically different take on it?

If I put on my rose colored optimist glasses, I would be hoping that even though they are 8 weeks behind right now, they have been able to run enough parts through the system to identify and work on some of the bottle necks higher up the S curve that would have stopped them from getting from 2000 to 4000 for instance, and that they are fixing these issues right now. In a best case, this could accelerate the latter part of the S curve, and they may catch up some of the 8 weeks they are behind now. I am hoping for this, but definitely not making any short term bets on it, since I think it is unlikely.

 

[Lessmog]

The charts have spoken and the verdict is in
They speak nothing but the truth
This week's hollow red candle is indeed a rare occurrence
Only four times has it occurred in the 7 year trading history of TSLA
All ye skeptics and non believers
I shall expound on the singular importance of this rare phenomenon later this afternoon or evening
I'm working out right now
But I want the nervous nancies and hyper skeptics to know that be prepared to cast all your doubts aside
All your gloomy forecasts shall come to nought
TSLA is about to go up big time
And I shall explain why later today


I know the score like the back of my hand
Them other boys
I don't give a damn
They kiss on the ring
I carry the crown
Nothing nothing can break me down
Don't need no advice
I got a plan
I know the direction
The lay of the land

Oh shake a speare
in blank verse.
But beware
the poetic curse!
(And don't mind bad rhymes)

 

[EnergyMax]

I think Tesla could be more than 8 weeks behind schedule. This ramp is not like the Model S/X ramps, as there appears to be far more automation involved. There could be aspects of this Tesla is going through for the first time.

I think automation is harder to ramp than human labor. Once it's running, things will be good, but I have a nagging feeling it could take longer than is being discussed.

 

[ATHiker]

Do you have thoughts on how the market may react to the following scenario? On the conference call in a few weeks Elon acknowledges That they are behind by 8 weeks where they hoped to be, but gives some satisfying answers on what has been going on, including some of the bottlenecks they have fixed, and some of the ones they are still working on. And reiterates confidence in getting to 10K/week in 2018.

My guess on the scenario above, is that it is about what the market is expecting, and is priced in already. I would be curious to hear if anyone else had a dramatically different take on it?

8 weeks, 12 weeks. A delay at this point doesn't much matter. First of all, it's pretty much expected with Elon and second, you can make up 8 weeks of ramp up production in a single week next year. IMO, the market will be looking at two things: profitability on the 3 and what the ultimate demand level is. News on that front will have a more material and lasting impact on the stock than teething problems during the initial ramp up.

 

[Lessmog]

I think Tesla could be more than 8 weeks behind schedule. This ramp is not like the Model S/X ramps, as there appears to be far more automation involved. There could be aspects of this Tesla is going through for the first time.

I think automation is harder to ramp than human labor. Once it's running, things will be good, but I have a nagging feeling it could take longer than is being discussed.

Maybe a whole other kind of hubris? All for the good, in the end, I guess.

 

[DaveT]

I agree with your assessment of how far behind they appear to be. After falling down a rabbit hole of reading thousands of old TMC posts from the last 3 years this weekend, I am less optimistic that there will be a miracle. There were a lot of dashed hopes on TMC over the last few years!

@Snapdragon III, nicely done. Most newer investors wouldn’t go back and read the past 3 years of posts. But lots of lessons. Definitely lots of dashed hopes. Most have to deal with missed timelines and missed guidance and projections. One important insight is that Elon’s stated guidance and goals are usually aspirational and usually don’t happen on his timeline. I believe it’s just one of his ways to motivate his team to be pushed as hard as they can. He knows many of his timeline goals are not going to be met and he’s ok with that as long as he’s on the right trajectory for the longer term goals. It’s one of the reasons I’m not at the least surprised by Model 3 delays. There were lots of reasons given here why the Model 3 ramp will be on time and will be different than the S and X ramp, and I’m sure it is in some ways. But it’s delayed, just like the next product and the following product ramp will be delayed as well. Again, though in the bigger picture it’s not a completely big deal for most long-term investors.

 

[RABaby]

The charts have spoken and the verdict is in
They speak nothing but the truth
This week's hollow red candle is indeed a rare occurrence
Only four times has it occurred in the 7 year trading history of TSLA
All ye skeptics and non believers
I shall expound on the singular importance of this rare phenomenon later this afternoon or evening
I'm working out right now
But I want the nervous nancies and hyper skeptics to know that be prepared to cast all your doubts aside
All your gloomy forecasts shall come to nought
TSLA is about to go up big time
And I shall explain why later today


I know the score like the back of my hand
Them other boys
I don't give a damn
They kiss on the ring
I carry the crown
Nothing nothing can break me down
Don't need no advice
I got a plan
I know the direction
The lay of the land

Your lines are amusing
your predictions so sure
if indeed you are right
and of this you're secure
then later this week
we shall see brains on the street
and for some of us here
short agony so sweet

 

[RABaby]

Oh shake a speare
in blank verse.
But beware
the poetic curse!
(And don't mind bad rhymes)

The curse of the poems
are for those who think small
myth and religion
superstition is all

 

[Lhan]

Maybe it’s on instagram. Anyway to see likes there?

AMA on r/spacex.