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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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It could be pretty difficult to extrapolate the speed of deliveries of this most recent batch of new VINS compared to the first batch of VINS.
We already know from Twig Mouse (who seems to be at least mid-level engineer at Tesla) that customers are given VIN numbers at a point when the car is somewhere along the production line (somewhat advanced point apparently). Maybe this is the same situation for NHTSA?
We also know that his car was in "pre-delivery purgatory" for a while. We also know that Tesla had to go back and fix things on seemingly "produced cars". Therefore, its possible that they had around 1334 cars at reasonably advanced stages of production that were waiting on items/fixes and so couldn't be included in the 260 cars made.
If you assume that the 1334 cars had lots of delays before going to customers, and fixes to the production line and supplier components are improving, then the time-line for delivery for the next 1000 VINS could be better.
The important info going forward IMO is how rapidly new VIN batches are deposited with the NHTSA.
 
Compared to zero it's probably a positive sign. Compared to expectations of September 1,500, October 5,000, November 12,000 it looks like they are expecting roughly under 3k total between now and mid November. First the registered about 1.2k and produced about 260 cars. and that got us through about the third weeks into October. Now they doubled the number so at that rate those should last another 3-5 weeks. That would be roughly 2.5k cars produced through about thanksgiving.

You could change my estimate if you want to but I don't see how you can put a positive spin on that. It sounds like the openheimer estimate could be pretty reasonable.
So far though, the market has yawned at the ramp delay without penalizing the stock. Unless it gets clearly worse, I don't see the stock dropping much. Too many investors don't want to miss out on what is coming. You can see it in the way the stock is behaving now. Tesla is clearly struggling a bit right now and is not where they hoped to be on Model 3 production, yet the stock is threatening to breakout. It's all about not missing out for investors now. Some were probably late to the party for the huge rise in the first half of 2017 leading up to the reveal. They don't want to be so late this time. I think the stock will rise sharply in anticipation, before the ramp is confirmed but when early signs are suggesting it is happening. It would have broken out already if not for the delay. We may be just a few weeks from that happening.
 
Nice! Looks like the shorts messed up again. What's the definition of insanity again???

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Something like, the more you know the more you know you do not know. I'm sure I heard that somewhere.

Yes. The more you know, the more you realize you know nothing. When you come to that lightbulb moment in life, it's overwhelming and enlightening all at the same time. Stay away from those who think/say/believe they've got nothing else to learn for they are the most ignorant among us.
 
Speaking about the apparent TE production backup, are there any volunteers to be TMC eyes and ears at this Friday's Vermont event that will include TE representative. There is, of course no guarantee of availability of new information, but sometimes a proper chat can reveal very useful information ...

Well there was no interest expressed for going to this event, so I registered for it just in case, even though I knew it is unlikely that I go. Today I received e-mail from the organizers essentially confirming that Tesla indeed has all TE hands on deck time with the Puerto Rico grid effort. Here is the e-mail:

Hello and thanks for signing up for "Batteries Required: Tesla Comes to Vermont" at the 11th Vermont Tech Jam!

I have good news and bad news.

Bad news first: Our speaker from Tesla can't make it to the Tech Jam, and Tesla is unable to provide a replacement; many key staff are in Puerto Rico installing Powerwall home batteries there as part of hurricane relief efforts. So... we'll be talking about Tesla Powerwall batteries in Vermont, just without someone from Tesla there.

I was feeling really disappointed about this, until I talked with our replacement speaker.

That's the good news — Chip Palombini from South Burlington-based Dynapower will be joining our panel. He's with the company's growing energy-storage division.

Dynapower makes inverters that connect DC batteries to the AC grid. The company provides these crucial parts for some of the biggest home battery manufacturers around — Tesla, Samsung and LG. Palombini will explain how Dynapower got into the energy storage biz, and will talk about the field's explosive growth over the past few years and into the future.

And as planned, Josh Castonguay and Betsy Bloomer from Green Mountain Power will discuss the utility's Tesla Powerwall program.

We hope you'll still join us for what promises to be an exciting conversation about energy storage,
-- Cathy Resmer, Associate Publisher at Seven Days
 
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Yes. The more you know, the more you realize you know nothing. When you come to that lightbulb moment in life, it's overwhelming and enlightening all at the same time. Stay away from those who think/say/believe they've got nothing else to learn for they are the most ignorant among us.

Nevertheless, the more you know the more likely you know more than the dumbass next to you.
 
Lots of luck changing their opinion, however. Divided as we are we're being trumpled. "W" tells me so.

You are a funny old cook. If I am still alive at your age, I hope to be half as funny. Truth is that their is substantial disease on the left. A complete ignorance of reality in favor of ideological cliches. I am surprised how left leaning you are for an intelligent old man, to be honest. For instance, would Weinstein be in trouble if he was good looking? Let's reflect on power and female stupidity for a moment. Let's reflect on why all nuance is lost and why they didn't stand up at the time but prefer today's narrative.
 
So far though, the market has yawned at the ramp delay without penalizing the stock. Unless it gets clearly worse, I don't see the stock dropping much. Too many investors don't want to miss out on what is coming. You can see it in the way the stock is behaving now. Tesla is clearly struggling a bit right now and is not where they hoped to be on Model 3 production, yet the stock is threatening to breakout. It's all about not missing out for investors now. Some were probably late to the party for the huge rise in the first half of 2017 leading up to the reveal. They don't want to be so late this time. I think the stock will rise sharply in anticipation, before the ramp is confirmed but when early signs are suggesting it is happening. It would have broken out already if not for the delay. We may be just a few weeks from that happening.
and there you have it... the "market" has shown us that all of these things going on with the company are just fine. the "market thinks"... etc. problem is... a "market" that "tells you" how healthy the company is is one where free will and randomness exists... the TSLA "market" is one where it holds at $353... closes at $356... drops to $346... snaps back to $356... etc. for months. do you think "the market" just randomly decided to pin this stock to specific numbers on $10 intervals for 2 months?... sounds stupid right?... but TSLA has acted in completely non-random and non-free ways for a very long time... so, basing the health of Tesla on the performance of TSLA is the making of 1999 all over again... yes, it should be and is a correct assumption for stocks that track to some coefficient of some valuation... but not with cult growth stocks... right?... nothing matters with them... "everyone know's" they're going to the moon!... so climb aboard and get on the money train!... because "the market" is telling us everything is OK with Tesla!
 
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and there you have it... the "market" has shown us that all of these things going on with the company are just fine. the "market thinks"... etc. problem is... a "market" that "tells you" how healthy the company is is one where free will and randomness exists... the TSLA "market" is one where it holds at $353... closes at $356... drops to $346... snaps back to $356... etc. for months. do you think "the market" just randomly decided to pin this stock to specific numbers on $10 intervals for 2 months?... sounds stupid right?... but TSLA has acted in completely non-random and non-free ways for a very long time... so, basing the health of Tesla on the performance of TSLA is the making of 1999 all over again... yes, it should be and is a correct assumption for stocks that track to some coefficient of some valuation... but not with cult growth stocks... right?... nothing matters with them... "everyone know's" they're going to the moon!... so climb aboard and get on the money train!... because "the market" is telling us everything is OK with Tesla!

1999
Interest rates : 6%
PE ratio : 44

2017
Interest rates : 1,25%
PE ratio : 25
 
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