The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
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#1 rule of investing in TSLA. They are always late. While there is probably an exception, I cannot think of any right now.
Reasonable argument but I think it's wrong because the great energy transition is causing a global boom, albeit an extremely sector-dependent one. Thanks for the answer anyway.
Well, they are targeting 2018.
Is it possible for TSLA to follow NFLX's Aug 2011 script, in which case TSLA could go to 50, or at least go below 200 and stay there for 10mon or so.
I cannot imagine this being possible - M3 is late, true, but sold-out for 1-2 years in advance and the delay is only three months, six maybe worst, but still a year or so ahead of initial planning.
As I said earlier. there is zero reason for Tesla to ramp up M3 till the fed tax credit is in full swing. They are losing money head over heels selling $100k cars. Does it not make sense to sell $100k cars using the $7500 credit to lose less, vs. losing more by selling $50k cars? Then, there is the need for huge capex to reach that point, where they lose more money selling each car. 6-12 month delay pretty much kills the fed tax credit for whatever M3 buyers are left in the reservation list.
Two brave souls who took up my challenge on 2018 M3 vs. Leaf worldwide sales, @Yuri_G and @Fallenone , you can start counting your days on this forum.
To my no see-um "toxic bull" members: My sympathies for your truckload of purchases the last few weeks.
So you are saying for now the M3 is a compliance car? jk
WE all know the 3mon or 6mon delay thing are all imaginary, nothing solid to be bet on there. But it took only about 3 months for NFLX to travel from 300 to 50. So time wise, it's mroe than enough for TSLA to do the same.
Yuri_G
Member
As I said earlier. there is zero reason for Tesla to ramp up M3 till the fed tax credit is in full swing. They are losing money head over heels selling $100k cars. Does it not make sense to sell $100k cars using the $7500 credit to lose less, vs. losing more by selling $50k cars? Then, there is the need for huge capex to reach that point, where they lose more money selling each car. 6-12 month delay pretty much kills the fed tax credit for whatever M3 buyers are left in the reservation list.
Two brave souls who took up my challenge on 2018 M3 vs. Leaf worldwide sales, @Yuri_G and @Fallenone , you can start counting your days on this forum.
To my no see-um "toxic bull" members: My sympathies for your truckload of purchases the last few weeks.
Laugh it up. We'll see how next year pans out.
Elon's Eighth circle of hell was coming out of hell. Two weeks ago was 9th circle, last week was 8th circle, coming out of 8th circle next week. So still lots of hell remain.
RationalOptimist
Member
No, he always sounds like that. He was really angry for a moment earlier in the call regarding misreporting of the firings. But I'm impressed with the level of explanation here regarding the bottlenecks.
If you were there during the NFLX drop from 300 to 50, the company was in crisis. They tried to split their DVD and streaming business and rename their product to Qwikster, they were losing subscribers, there were serious questions about rising licensing costs, there were fears of competition from Amazon Prime Video, Hulu, and cable. There were concerns about their leadership. There were serious concerns about the trajectory of the company.
Tesla is not losing customers. Model S/X order rate is at record levels. Model 3 waitlist is increasing. Tesla Energy is ramping. Model 3 ramp is improving. If TSLA were to drop significantly below 300, Tencent and other large funds would buy all shares they can get. This is a complete nonsense comparison.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
280 has been my target price now for a few months. Worst case in my opinion is 250. I last sold at 253 or so and was fortunate to jump into LIT ETF since then, so I didnt miss the run up to 380 or whatever too much.
If it hits 280 I'll wait see if it bounces off a few times. If macros finally start turning sour then it's a whole new story. I'd like to see 280 as the new infamous 180 bottom.
As always, new events are the most important indicator. Good luck to all.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'll just leave this here for some of you to consider...
Did I hear them say that the China factory was so that there would be no tariffs?
I thought prevailing sentiment was that they would still have to pay the tariff if they set up the factory in the free-trade zone.
I thought prevailing sentiment was that they would still have to pay the tariff if they set up the factory in the free-trade zone.
I agree with you that this was a really interesting comment towards the end. I heard them say it was so customers would not face tariffs. Now, that isn't explicitly stating there will be no tariff for Chinese consumers, but, it's very encouraging that at least lower tariffs are part of the plan, and, yes, possibly no tariff at all.
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