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I may be doing the same but as option pricing is looking for a 7% move I will probably go 15/25 below close. NOT ADVICE
phew, no front running, lols : )
thanks for info Al. not changing orders, but I’ll be at trigger ready for more trades.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Right, they were implying that a "young" automaker doesn't have the manufacturing ability/experience/expertise to build with an aluminum body. Hubris.
I think its the shipping numbers for model S and X in the US being relatively low is noticed when today listed on Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard while the higher ones in europe and china will really be more noticed after the earnings report. I am betting on up after.
Also should they announce an S/X refresh that could be interesting.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I see we are all crippling the ir.tesla website with refreshes
Things are running just a bit slow
Will the bottlenecks at Tesla never end?
For me this is in-line with expected activities. Margins down and cash usage up due to slow Model 3 production launch. Nice to see details on where the bottlenecks are. Most interesting part is that Energy Storage is running at 25% GM and is above 10% of revenue, all without any contribution from the South Australia project.
It is really bad investor wise; targeting 5k/week late Q1 2018 for model 3....
Yes. And this time, it's just "expected", "based on what we know now." Last time, it was "confident" of 5k/week in December. Really bad.
Congrats to our discount seeking friends, you got them so far.
Should be a very interesting conference call with how open the letter was on the model 3 bottlenecks.
This report seems bad, but it's very much in line with how this board felt things would go about 1 year ago. It helps to remember that getting things started in July wasn't supposed to happen, so this is more of a reversion to the original schedule then an actual major schedule slip.
I know I didn't expect to get my model 3 as soon as they were projecting, and now I feel like my predictions will be more accurate.
Many of us predicted a down then up your market pattern with model 3 build issues and this largely appears to be playing out
Should be a very interesting conference call with how open the letter was on the model 3 bottlenecks.
This report seems bad, but it's very much in line with how this board felt things would go about 1 year ago. It helps to remember that getting things started in July wasn't supposed to happen, so this is more of a reversion to the original schedule then an actual major schedule slip.
I know I didn't expect to get my model 3 as soon as they were projecting, and now I feel like my predictions will be more accurate.
Many of us predicted a down then up your market pattern with model 3 build issues and this largely appears to be playing out
Given that most people thought Tesla wouldn't ship Model 3 until late 2018, and then fact that they are MOVING BACK their targets of 5k a week to end of Q1 2018, I see this as a great buying opportunity.
Letter explicitly fails to reaffirm year end 2018 for producing 10k per week. Last quarter Musk said "zero" concern about hitting that goal. "Zero."
Sounds like a delay of 6-12 months from the targets of just three months ago. Targets they affirmed with high confidence.
Sounds like a delay of 6-12 months from the targets of just three months ago. Targets they affirmed with high confidence.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
If I were a skeptic, which I'm not, I'd read most of this as handwaving BS. Translated, I think it says:
- our ability to predict this ramp is awful
- we're now sure it will be at least three months late getting to 5,000/week but we don't really know
- we're not going to start working toward 10,000/week until we've reached 5000, so at best three months late
- but really, who knows?
- that 10,000/week target that used to be 100% for sure by end of 2018 is now whenever, but there's no telling
Yuck!
- our ability to predict this ramp is awful
- we're now sure it will be at least three months late getting to 5,000/week but we don't really know
- we're not going to start working toward 10,000/week until we've reached 5000, so at best three months late
- but really, who knows?
- that 10,000/week target that used to be 100% for sure by end of 2018 is now whenever, but there's no telling
Yuck!
Waiting4M3
Active Member
5K/wk target is now late Q1 vs Dec, so ~3 months delay. Question is what will Nov/Dec deliver? There is a lot to be read into the following statements
"We expect Model 3 non-GAAP gross margin to reach breakeven by end of Q4, because of increased capacity utilization, and it should improve rapidly in 2018 to our target of 25%"
"Due to a higher mix of temporarily lower margin Model 3 deliveries in Q4 compared to Q3, we expect non-GAAP automotive gross margin to temporarily decline slightly in Q4 to about 15% and then recover starting in Q1"
That might represent Tesla/Elon further improving their communications.
If they can keep it to 3 months off of the imaginary perfect launch, I'd consider it a launch well done, if it's over 6 months off the imaginary perfect launch, I'd say we've entered disappointing results territory.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
The 2 new videos showing automated body welding and seat/dash/glass roof installation. I'm a little more excited about the margins on the M3.
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