Waiting4M3
Active Member
Maybe Elon took pity on the aussies after hearing how much they're paying for electricity, and decided to let them have the $35K version early
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No change in my (European) delivery estimate (both reservations still expected delivery end 2018)
As an engineer, I’ve experienced situations like the production issue in the gigafactory many times. When trying to bring something live, things that were not expected to be problematic turn out to be so problematic that you van’t go live. Management puts their best resources on it to solve the issue, and in the end, because of all the extra attention and focus on the issue, you end up with something that’s much better than the original plan. When you finally are live, in retrospect the only issue is some lost time in your expected schedule, and some ‘lost’ (but put to good use) resource time.
As an engineer, I’ve experienced situations like the production issue in the gigafactory many times. When trying to bring something live, things that were not expected to be problematic turn out to be so problematic that you van’t go live. Management puts their best resources on it to solve the issue, and in the end, because of all the extra attention and focus on the issue, you end up with something that’s much better than the original plan. When you finally are live, in retrospect the only issue is some lost time in your expected schedule, and some ‘lost’ (but put to good use) resource time.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley suggests buying on weakness:
We reiterate our Equal-weight on Tesla, but acknowledge that a recent downturn in sentiment may be driven by short-term factors that could inflect materially positively over the next 2 to 3 months. While any investment in Tesla may involve high degrees of risk, we see the ingredients of a buying opportunity on continued weakness in the stock. Our working assumption remains that the Model 3 will be a highly successful car where global demand may very significantly exceed market expectations over the next 24 months and where Tesla may have the high quality problem of sufficiently meeting demand for the car.
We reiterate our Equal-weight on Tesla, but acknowledge that a recent downturn in sentiment may be driven by short-term factors that could inflect materially positively over the next 2 to 3 months. While any investment in Tesla may involve high degrees of risk, we see the ingredients of a buying opportunity on continued weakness in the stock. Our working assumption remains that the Model 3 will be a highly successful car where global demand may very significantly exceed market expectations over the next 24 months and where Tesla may have the high quality problem of sufficiently meeting demand for the car.
OK, after sleeping on it... Only issue I see is that, with a few notable exceptions, we're an overly-optimistic bunch in this thread, so any further delay hurts. Overall though, I don't see any fundamental change.
I was initially dismayed but the 10% reduction in MS/X build capacity, but the rationale behind it seems sound.
Only regret is that I don't have any cash to buy some more
EDIT: I was a software developer for much of my career and when asked for an estimation of how long to deliver a piece of code I would always give an optimistic response, which was accurate if the code worked pretty much first time, but in reality it's never like that. After some years of constantly getting burned I learned to double my initial estimate, then double again, which then became uncannily accurate, so that's my advice to Elon at this point
I was initially dismayed but the 10% reduction in MS/X build capacity, but the rationale behind it seems sound.
Only regret is that I don't have any cash to buy some more
EDIT: I was a software developer for much of my career and when asked for an estimation of how long to deliver a piece of code I would always give an optimistic response, which was accurate if the code worked pretty much first time, but in reality it's never like that. After some years of constantly getting burned I learned to double my initial estimate, then double again, which then became uncannily accurate, so that's my advice to Elon at this point
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If it helps, the same happened with Model S and Model X ramp-ups. I think Tesla's communications on it are to blame as well, they set expectations that too often are not realistic - and people keep grasping from one such straw until another, until one day Tesla "gets there". Frankly, it would be nicer to just have more realistic expectations to start with. It is possible Tesla is overly optimistic because they feel they have to for PR and IR reasons... which is not a nice thought, but it is possible IMO.
I see the optimism happening again today. People are looking overly optimistically at what is being said, while others are way too pessimistic about things. This is neither good, nor is this doom, but realistically, it is quite possible Model 3 deliveries are delayed by several months. There may be more delays on top of the delays we've already witnessed. Model X was effectively delayed by 6-7 months (on top of the already existing delay of year and a half to two years), while similar threads kept hoping for better, shooting down "naysayers" despite leaksters expressing worrying news - until it was no longer possible to hope. People on TMC were predicting thousands of Model X deliveries at the end of 2015, the reality was something like ~100 - for several months the number was ~6. Model S ramp-up was similarly plagued. In the end, Tesla has publicized too optimistic ramp-up schedules, which leave too little time for sorting out the issues that always happen. The original expectations were, again, set wrong.
The pattern keeps repeating... but the likely truth is neither soon nor doom, IMO. They'll get there for sure, but it may take longer than some here hope too. I recommend learning from Tesla's history.
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If they need to issue more debt or dilute shares again, it's going to be a really bad look. They have $3.5 billion stored. Let's hope they can ramp the Model 3 up without burning all the $3.5 billion or I doubt any of us will be happy with our investments.
In the short run, a loss of probably at least 10% in a week is going to be ugly. In the long run, well, Elon has never allowed anything he has done after PayPal to fail. He'll either succeed or kill himself from overwork trying. Let's hope he succeeds.
In the short run, a loss of probably at least 10% in a week is going to be ugly. In the long run, well, Elon has never allowed anything he has done after PayPal to fail. He'll either succeed or kill himself from overwork trying. Let's hope he succeeds.
OK, after sleeping on it... Only issue I see is that, with a few notable exceptions, we're an overly-optimistic bunch in this thread, so any further delay hurts. Overall though, I don't see any fundamental change.
I was initially dismayed but the 10% reduction in MS/X build capacity, but the rationale behind it seems sound.
Only regret is that I don't have any cash to buy some more
EDIT: I was a software developer for much of my career and when asked for an estimation of how long to deliver a piece of code I would always give an optimistic response, which was accurate if the code worked pretty much first time, but in reality it's never like that. After some years of constantly getting burned I learned to double my initial estimate, then double again, which then became uncannily accurate, so that's my advice to Elon at this point
Keep doubling it like that and you get outsourced to cheaper labor, who take a long time and still costs just as much as it takes more iterations and management time.
Not quite, my initial estimations were, to put it mildly, ludicrous, so even x 4 they were competitive.
My experience with software estimates (as a software engineer) is that management likes a high but accurate (both in timing and quality) estimate more than a low estimate that turns out to be incorrect due to optimistic schedule or low quality, or both.
I've also wondered how they will handle service, including preventative maintenance. Will they use existing automobile service centers, resurrect the mobile rangers, contract it out, or ???
ValueAnalyst
Closed
yes cash or short for the moment.
let this baby drop down to 150-200 before you buy again..
like i have said elsewhere, i'm trying to identify and quantitate weak and strong bears.
your comment above gives at the moment "weak bear"
As an investor and occasional trader since at least january 2012 in TSLA, i like "pushing the stock price up", profits are good and can be spent buying more shares, or vacations, or diversifications, and i like showcasing the company.
I definately don't want to "push the stock price down" and prefer a "pox upon the houses" of those who do (hence my nascent indicator)
I also am somewhat a "weak" model 3 purchaser, as I want a 30ct ft interior S or X and hatchback vs 15cuft interior 3. (i transport 6-8ft cherry and walnut and crepe myrtle logs to local sawmills a few times, amazing what youu can find for free)(gorgeous wood)
however, my daughter's 2005 Prius has 238,000+ miles (many I put on it) and i will be able to "gift" 1/2 an electric car if she gets the 3 and I get an S, and I will get the $7,500 credit to sweeten the deal.
(sweetheart, we can help you buy a new car and pay for 1/2 of it. are you in on the deal? You can easily road trip in it)
As for the reservation list being vetted, at my retirement party, i was startled that several folks with no prodding, gushed over "The tesla model 3 they were thinking about getting but had not reserved yet, back in mid march 2016, because reservations were not open yet. (and we had/have low cost/free charging at work, 110v, but the vehicles are parked 8+ hours, and the line of 300-400 on 3/31 at the local store
Once the reality sets in people will realize that S and X sell as quickly as they can make them and the last quarter depressed margins on those cars are still higher than most competitors. Then they’ll find out that Model 3 ramp up is still happening, just not so quickly as the accelerated expectations. Then the share price rises again.
I’m still ahead now, not so much as I was $80 ago, but still ahead. I shall buy more during this dip. Six months from now I’ll be happy I did.
Yes, I remember, I also bought at $325 and $350. Not too much, but I did. This time I’m buying more.
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As a invererate stutterer/brain freezer, perhaps it's because the 20+ voices, 20+ parallel thought trains, have problems taking precedence as to whom gets to speak and the top 3-7 are vying to get out first.
stutttering may just mean the master cpu can't decide which thought to get out first, because you are thinking much faster, in parallel
edit:
after a "spirited discussion" with my wife, there is an incorrect definition of the word "stutter" being used
stutter means a single word doesnt get spoken. brain freeze is more the parallel processing who gets out first which is confused with stuttering
(and this may need editing again)(but, eh)
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do you really think it makes any sense at all to compare margins between a company that produces ONLY luxury vehicles at 100k/yr to "most competitors" that are producing 100x more?... i guess you're right... margins never change with scale.
sweter
Member
Porsche Mission E was debuted in 2015. Expected start of production 2019. 4 years.
Ford Focus Electric debuted in 2009. Deliveries began in late 2011. 2 years. Sold 901 in 2016 in the US.
Chevrolet Bolt debuted in 2015. Deliveries began in October 2016. 1 year. Sold 579 in 2016 in the US.
BMW i3 was debuted in 2011. Deliveries began in 2013. 2 years. Sold 7625 in 2016 in the US.
VW e-Golf was debuted in 2013. Deliveries began in 2015. 2 years. Sold 3937 in 2016 in the US.
------ this is from "big automakers" and their so called "Tesla killers"
Model 3 debuted in 2016. Deliveries began in 2017. 1 year. Sold 220 in 2017 in the US, let's conservatively estimate 3000-4000 sold by the end of 2017.
Just put Justin W on your ignore list and have a much better morning.
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