2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[dc_h]

With VIN 1910 on delivery soon, it would be produced one or two weeks ago. Quality check has been done after production and takes some time. My guess is that they now produce M3's in VIN range 2000-2500.
I am more optimistic at this moment than others here on this page.
I think first non employees will get their VIN numbers end next week. (expect close to VIN 3000)
Next week I also expect a new VIN range reservation done by Tesla. Current range is up to close 3700.
Lets wait and see if I am right

Agreed. Anything over 50 a week requires the cell pack automation, which if the last bottleneck, should mean we have hit the ramp. If we are right we should see VIN registrations up to 5000 next week. Not likely to deliver over 2500 this year, but should be over 5000 in January.

 

[BornToFly]

The JPMorgan analyst is a moron. He says that the other auto makers will crush Tesla because they can intentionally sell their EVs at a loss and profit from their ICE vehicles. What he doesn't understand is if the other auto makers sell compliance cars that are desirable enough to compete with Tesla, they won't sell many of their inferior, "profitable" ICE vehicles (which means they can't sell their EVs at a loss anymore). If their EVs suck, so that most buyers continue to chose their ICE cars over their EVs, than they won't sell enough of those EVs to matter, because most EV buyers will go buy an awesome Tesla instead of a crappy compliance car.

 

[madodel]

The JPMorgan analyst is a moron. He says that the other auto makers will crush Tesla because they can intentionally sell their EVs at a loss and profit from their ICE vehicles. What he doesn't understand is if the other auto makers sell compliance cars that are desirable enough to compete with Tesla, they won't sell many of their inferior, "profitable" ICE vehicles (which means they can't sell their EVs at a loss anymore). If their EVs suck, so that most buyers continue to chose their ICE cars over their EVs, than they won't sell enough of those EVs to matter, because most EV buyers will go buy an awesome Tesla instead of a crappy compliance car.

And from what I read they are having a tough year getting people to buy what they are still selling.
U.S. auto sales: 2017 likely to mark first fall since Great Recession

 

[copyhacker]

The JPMorgan analyst is a moron. He says that the other auto makers will crush Tesla because they can intentionally sell their EVs at a loss and profit from their ICE vehicles. What he doesn't understand is if the other auto makers sell compliance cars that are desirable enough to compete with Tesla, they won't sell many of their inferior, "profitable" ICE vehicles (which means they can't sell their EVs at a loss anymore). If their EVs suck, so that most buyers continue to chose their ICE cars over their EVs, than they won't sell enough of those EVs to matter, because most EV buyers will go buy an awesome Tesla instead of a crappy compliance car.

Thanks for the best explanation of this I’ve seen yet. It is literally impossible for legacy car companies to compete, in the same way that Blockbuster could literally not compete with Netflix and B&N literally could not compete with Amazon. They can’t make the leap without wiping out their primary source of revenue. Attempting it would not be “maximizing shareholder value”.

 

[Curt Renz]

The JPMorgan analyst is a moron. He says that the other auto makers will crush Tesla because they can intentionally sell their EVs at a loss and profit from their ICE vehicles. What he doesn't understand is if the other auto makers sell compliance cars that are desirable enough to compete with Tesla, they won't sell many of their inferior, "profitable" ICE vehicles (which means they can't sell their EVs at a loss anymore). If their EVs suck, so that most buyers continue to chose their ICE cars over their EVs, than they won't sell enough of those EVs to matter, because most EV buyers will go buy an awesome Tesla instead of a crappy compliance car.

Thanks for the best explanation of this I’ve seen yet. It is literally impossible for legacy car companies to compete, in the same way that Blockbuster could literally not compete with Netflix and B&N literally could not compete with Amazon. They can’t make the leap without wiping out their primary source of revenue. Attempting it would not be “maximizing shareholder value”.

Ipsos RDA Study Finds U.S. Dealerships Not Prepared for the EV Invasion

 

[Starno]

Thanks for the best explanation of this I’ve seen yet. It is literally impossible for legacy car companies to compete, in the same way that Blockbuster could literally not compete with Netflix and B&N literally could not compete with Amazon. They can’t make the leap without wiping out their primary source of revenue. Attempting it would not be “maximizing shareholder value”.

Exactly. To compete the traditional automakers should forget about good financial results for at least 2-3 years. Unfortunately every CEO and executives in those companies are thinking from quarter to quarter (to not disappoint shareholders). And I'd even say that the small EV expansion initiatives they take is just to make shareholders not worry so much when they read into newspapers what Tesla is doing.

So they're basically doomed.

 

[hobbes]

With VIN 1910 on delivery soon, it would be produced one or two weeks ago. Quality check has been done after production and takes some time. My guess is that they now produce M3's in VIN range 2000-2500.
I am more optimistic at this moment than others here on this page.
I think first non employees will get their VIN numbers end next week. (expect close to VIN 3000)
Next week I also expect a new VIN range reservation done by Tesla. Current range is up to close 3700.
Lets wait and see if I am right

Two other small details that make me a bit more optimistic:
- Elon seems not to be predominantly preoccupied by production hell any more judging from his twitter account
- Tesla put a Model 3 on the LA Auto show. That goes against what they usually did (also with the X and S) and especially surprising with the 3, which they seemed to anti-sell for a long time.

 

[Starno]

Two other small details that make me a bit more optimistic:
- Elon seems not to be predominantly preoccupied by production hell any more judging from his twitter account
- Tesla put a Model 3 on the LA Auto show. That goes against what they usually did (also with the X and S) and especially surprising with the 3, which they seemed to anti-sell for a long time.

Agree, but I wouldn't judge too much based on his Tweets.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Two other small details that make me a bit more optimistic:
- Elon seems not to be predominantly preoccupied by production hell any more judging from his twitter account
- Tesla put a Model 3 on the LA Auto show. That goes against what they usually did (also with the X and S) and especially surprising with the 3, which they seemed to anti-sell for a long time.

You are right... still, I am a bit worried about the silence. I mean I think Tesla was smart when they said, that they will provide the next update on Model 3 with the Q4 deliveries data. This gave them 2 months to get things right. However, i kinda think if the breakthrough had happened, Elon would have tweeted a picture of like the robot assembling the packs at a good pace.

In any case, opening the config for general public and seeing higher VINs is encouraging, but at this point could just be the result of more hands on deck for the interim solution. December should be super important. During the ER Elon said he expected the fix to be implemented this month and exit the year with a production rate "in the 1000s", which i interpreted as 1000+ and not as "several" thousands.

I don't think reporting e.g. 1-2k Model 3s delivered on January 3rd will help us much if it is not followed by a line confirming the automated assemble line for the modules is running at "good enough" speeds -whatever that may be. Hell, just the fact it is running would be good news.

I feel like there is this huge pressure on TSLA due to this uncertainty and if things still get worse before they get better, we may lose significant ground (say, sub 300s) no matter what other good news they announce on record S/X deliveries or nice fat Roadster or Semi reservations. If, on the other hand, they report that automation running, i expect the stock to shoot up and the markets will even forgive poor Q4 financials.

 

[Mkorpal]

Agreed. Anything over 50 a week requires the cell pack automation, which if the last bottleneck, should mean we have hit the ramp. If we are right we should see VIN registrations up to 5000 next week. Not likely to deliver over 2500 this year, but should be over 5000 in January.

If we have hit the ramp, I wouldn't be shocked to see them register into the 20,000 range. That is assuming the VIN counter won't be re-set for cars next year.

 

[bdy0627]

Agreed. Anything over 50 a week requires the cell pack automation, which if the last bottleneck, should mean we have hit the ramp. If we are right we should see VIN registrations up to 5000 next week. Not likely to deliver over 2500 this year, but should be over 5000 in January.

Where did the max of 50/week manual battery pack assembly come from? If you look at the monthly data, it seems they have been able to do up to 80ish per week. Not a huge difference there but it does affect the interpretation of VIN data vs ramp at this point.

 

[Reciprocity]

The JPMorgan analyst is a moron. He says that the other auto makers will crush Tesla because they can intentionally sell their EVs at a loss and profit from their ICE vehicles. What he doesn't understand is if the other auto makers sell compliance cars that are desirable enough to compete with Tesla, they won't sell many of their inferior, "profitable" ICE vehicles (which means they can't sell their EVs at a loss anymore). If their EVs suck, so that most buyers continue to chose their ICE cars over their EVs, than they won't sell enough of those EVs to matter, because most EV buyers will go buy an awesome Tesla instead of a crappy compliance car.

The analyst had to say that because they will have to sell their cars at a loss, so he is predicting the future, but so am I, so we are both profits.

The thing no analysts that I have seen are considering is the impact on current brands. For example, if BMW makes a really good electric 3 series, at a loss, how does that impact the sales of the profitable ICEv 3 series? I'll give you a hint, the better the EV variant the more damage to profitable ICE variant. This is the conundrum that traditional manufacturers have. They can't take market share from Tesla, because Tesla has such a small portion of the market. So market share will come from their own profitable models. The better they do with EVs the more damage they do to the profitable part of their business.

 

[GoTslaGo]

And from what I read they are having a tough year getting people to buy what they are still selling.
U.S. auto sales: 2017 likely to mark first fall since Great Recession

Looks like the SUVs/CUVs/Pick ups are still doing well. Just in time for oil to rise—my WAG.

I know the consensus on the Shorting Oil thread is that it can’t go that high, but I am a pinky pulling secret tin-hat wearing member of the Aramco IPO conspiracy theorist. Saudi needs oil to be decently high to fetch a good SP on Aramco IPO. I’m sure they’ll figure out a way to get it there... then what’s going to happen to those gas/diesel guzzling SUV/CUV/Pick ups?

Still remember the last time gas prices were >$3/gallon. A coworker bought a Ford F-150 with all the rebates and incentives. Drove it for a month or two, until she had to fill up the tank a couple of times. Next thing I noticed the F150 was gone, replaced by a RAV4.

C’mon Elon, get those 3s rolling so you can launch the Model Y (or 4) CUV. That will take over the market for sure.

 

[myusername]

Agreed. Anything over 50 a week requires the cell pack automation, which if the last bottleneck, should mean we have hit the ramp. If we are right we should see VIN registrations up to 5000 next week. Not likely to deliver over 2500 this year, but should be over 5000 in January.

unbelievable. 200k, to 100k, to "certainly 70k", to 50k, to 30k, to 20k, to 10k and now... "not likely to deliver over 2500 this year".

just completely unreal that this stock manages to hang on.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Content of this message was deleted by a moderator, for two reasons.
1: it directly insulted another forum member
2: it contained no useful content.
(mod -- ggr)

 

[Reciprocity]

Ipsos RDA Study Finds U.S. Dealerships Not Prepared for the EV Invasion

The dealer issue is real. As we all know, is illegal to sell direct in the US. Don't know what the laws are elsewhere, but manufactures rely 100% on dealers to sell their cars. They make almost nothing on the sale of the car and all their profits come from service and service contracts which is like an open cash register because ice vehicles are built to fail. There are parts that are guaranteed to fail in x miles or time. Delays want nothing to do with million mile drive trains that requires little to no servicing.

Having stated all of that, dealers will come around. Once the manufactures pay them extra to sell their compliance cars, further extending their loss per car. I think Zev credits will be cheaper then dealing with dealers.

 

[Reciprocity]

unbelievable. 200k, to 100k, to "certainly 70k", to 50k, to 30k, to 20k, to 10k and now... "not likely to deliver over 2500 this year".

just completely unreal that this stock manages to hang on.

Your tears taste like nectar from the gods. Tesla was never going to be able to make 20,000 model S in a year either and per Bob Lutz the model X was not manufacturable and yet they built close to 50,000 of them this year. The clock is ticking on shorts, tick tock... Sell short now while the stock is at the bottom and there is clearly massive support. Not an advice..

 

[mongo]

Your tears taste like nectar from the gods. Tesla was never going to be able to make 20,000 model S in a year either and per Bob Lutz the model X was not manufacturable and yet they built close to 50,000 of them this year. The clock is ticking on shorts, tick tock... Sell short now while the stock is at the bottom and there is clearly massive support. Not an advice..

Wait, mu was talking about vehicle production? I thought those were projected hedge fund returns.

 

[madodel]

Wait, mu was talking about vehicle production? I thought those were projected hedge fund returns.

Those would have been negative numbers.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Content of this message was deleted by a moderator, for two reasons.
1: it directly insulted another forum member
2: it contained no useful content.
(mod -- ggr)

Damn! I wish I could remember what I wrote. I had a few drinks last night. Sorry @myusername. I hope I didn't hurt your feelings. Sorry about the lack of useful content. I'm sure that's probably a common theme with most of my posts. I'll try to work on that.