2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[defc0n]

Ok. Let's try this set of data... every Friday since July:

- 10 out of last 19 Friday's the share price closed within $1 of a '6'
- 6 out of the last 19 Friday's the stock closed within $1 of a '6' either the day before or after
- (**) 3 out of the last 19 Friday's the stock did not close on a '6' or the day before or after

so 16 out of the last 19 Friday's, TSLA has closed within $1 of a '6' on that day or the day before or after.

AND... 2 of the 3 days where it didn't fall into the above statement... the stock was making a large move.

but 7 out of the last 9 Fridays... the stock closed within $1 of a '6'

12/01: $306.53
11/24: $315.55
11/17: $315.05
11/10: $302.99 (closed the next day at $315.40)
11/03: $306.09
10/27: $320.87 (closed the previous day at $326.17)
10/20: $345.10
10/13: $355.57
10/06: $356.88
** 09/29: $341.10
09/22: $351.09 (closed previous day at $366.48)
09/15: $379.81 (closed the next day at $385.00 then the next day at $375.10)
** 09/08: $343.40
09/01: $355.40
08/25: $348.05 (closed the next day at $345.66)
** 08/18: $347.46
08/11: $357.87 (closed the previous day at $355.40)
08/04: 356.91
07/28: $355.07

**

09/29: next day's low $335.51
09/08: traded for most of the day at $346 then dropped into the close and opened the next day at $357 where it then traded at $366 for the next 2 sessions
08/18: this was in the middle of the drop from $360+ to $331 in 3 sessions

for the love of god I don't care.

 

[Skryll]

Way more 3’s happening than 6’s, but mostly I want to know what happened to next stop $270.

$370 ?

 

[vgrinshpun]

@vgrinshpun
I have a question:

You have made quite a few posts about the reductions in battery pack weight being an important factor for the M3. I don’t necessarily agree with that assessment. It’s even possible that most of the improvement is due to increased cell energy density. But I think that could be crucial for the Roadster and the semi. Particularly the semi.

Fred said on electrek’s second podcast that the M3 with the 75 kWh pack weighs 300 pounds more than the version with the 50 kWh pack. He said that only includes the cells, not the pack related stuff. I believe that includes (obviously) everything except the pack enclosure, which I believe is a pretty small percentage of the total.

Assuming a 100 kWh pack we have 300 pounds x 4 x 10 equals 12k pounds plus 5-10 percent for the enclosure means a total of 13,200 pounds. A semi tractor carries 200 gallons of diesel which weighs about 1,400 pounds. A typical class 8 semi tractor weighs about 20k pounds plus diesel.

Can you or anyone else determine about how much the Tesla Semi would weigh based on those figures . It seems feasible to me that either with current batteries or current batteries plus a small 5-10% increase in energy density that Tesla has this in the bag. in other words I don’t believe that they need a major advance in battery technology to hit their weight targets.

What do you think? Anyone else who is knowledgeable is welcome to contribute.

Assuming Diesel Semi weight less chassis and cab of 7,000 lbs and weight of modified M3 drive units at 200lbs each, and based on Jerome's note of Tesla Semi having the same payload as Diesel Semi, the required pack level specific energy is around 213 Wh/kg. This is 42% improvement over the pack level specific energy of M3 (150 Wh/kg).

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA very close to an inflection point could take off any time could easily be the next Bitcoin

 

[TrendTrader007]

007‏ @TrendTrader007
$TSLA based on my chart reading $TSLA could start a furious rally anyday now and stock price could easily go up 10X over the next 21/2 to 3 years to $3000 or more

 

[tlo]

007‏ @TrendTrader007
$TSLA based on my chart reading $TSLA could start a furious rally anyday now and stock price could easily go up 10X over the next 21/2 to 3 years to $3000 or more

If you hadn't posted pics of yourself in a Model X, I would have seriously thought you are a bear here to troll us.

$3000 would mean a $500B market cap. I'd be happy with half of that.

 

[vgrinshpun]

007‏ @TrendTrader007
$TSLA based on my chart reading $TSLA could start a furious rally anyday now and stock price could easily go up 10X over the next 21/2 to 3 years to $3000 or more

Shorter term, though, any move up is tied to the M3 ramp-up. We badly need evidence of serious ramp-up by the end of Q4.

 

[neroden]

007‏ @TrendTrader007
$TSLA based on my chart reading $TSLA could start a furious rally anyday now and stock price could easily go up 10X over the next 21/2 to 3 years to $3000 or more

It's true that it's very hard to guess when a run-up will happen. I'm personally not counting on it until middle of next year, when I think the Model 3 situation will be clearer, but such rallies have often happened before I expected them to.

The gobsmackingly awful Republican tax scam bill may actually drive a lot of before-December-31 sales of stock in order to lock in max value on deductions for losses (particularly if the FIFO-forcing provision targeted only at small investors passes). I mean, even I'm considering it.

So expect general stock market declines for the rest of the month if it passes. January is a more likely month for a runup.

 

[Reciprocity]

It's true that it's very hard to guess when a run-up will happen. I'm personally not counting on it until middle of next year, when I think the Model 3 situation will be clearer, but such rallies have often happened before I expected them to.

The gobsmackingly awful Republican tax scam bill may actually drive a lot of before-December-31 sales of stock in order to lock in max value on deductions for losses (particularly if the FIFO-forcing provision targeted only at small investors passes). I mean, even I'm considering it.

So expect general stock market declines for the rest of the month if it passes. January is a more likely month for a runup.

The problem is Tesla cant produce any more cars in the next 27 days. 2000 S/X a week could however go to 2400 and maybe there is a Spike in the model 3 ramp to 1000/w. But that would be pie in the sky, best case scenario. One interesting side note, I've been watching model x delivers on the forum. My model x was one of the last delivered in 2016 with a VIN of 322xx, and I've seen reports of 75xxx-79xxx. So I wouldn't be surprised if the total for the year close to 45,000, which combined with model S should put the total over 100k. Not to bad for a vehicle that wasn't manufacturable per Bob Lutz. Also helps keep the ASP closer to 100k.

I've seen so many contradictory reports, is the credit out in both the Senate and House version? Shocked to see solar was not targeted.

 

[22522]

It could play like this: Senate is more tenuous. House signs senate bill as is.

 

[gene]

I've seen so many contradictory reports, is the credit out in both the Senate and House version? Shocked to see solar was not targeted.

Solar and wind will be sneakily very much affected: Analysis | The Energy 202: Why the wind and solar lobby is terrified of the Senate tax plan

 

[Richgoogol]

All of renewable stocks are getting hammered today.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla could be the next Amazon thinks one analyst.

If you love Amazon, then this high-flying stock could be a sure bet for 2018

 

[elasalle]

Fed rate hike expected next week, three hikes expected in 2018: Reuters poll

 

[ZsoZso]

any specific reason for the sudden drop from ~305 to ~301 ?

 

[Richgoogol]

any specific reason for the sudden drop from ~305 to ~301 ?

Wondering the same thing

 

[Drax7]

General rotation to value

 

[bdy0627]

General rotation to value

and out of Nasdaq

 

[bdy0627]

Picked up 2 more J19 $350s at $301 today. TSLA showing relative strength given the drop in tech stocks.

 

[DurandalAI]

Assuming Diesel Semi weight less chassis and cab of 7,000 lbs and weight of modified M3 drive units at 200lbs each, and based on Jerome's note of Tesla Semi having the same payload as Diesel Semi, the required pack level specific energy is around 213 Wh/kg. This is 42% improvement over the pack level specific energy of M3 (150 Wh/kg).


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I’m going to have to disagree with that somewhat, because I believe that the batteries are heavier than that, and Tesla is making up in the weight of the chassis, by using lighter weight materials. You can see that extensively in the Model S, X, and 3. Just my hypothesis, however. I think they are making improvements, but not to the extent that you mention